I need problem solvers; Math shows we've already surpassed 100% herd immunity

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by nopartisanbull, Jul 24, 2021.

  1. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Many Republicans on this site have reiterated the fact that the number of infections is actually much higher than reported. Well, in this thread, let's use their math.

    According to this article.....''Is herd immunity closer than we think.....https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/herd-immunity-closer-we-think

    ''Most experts say that because of inadequate testing and reporting, the true number of infections is many times higher — the CDC put this number at 83 million by December 2020.

    Eric Topol, MD, the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, estimates that the number of actual infections is close to 100 million. “It could be as high as 110 million or it could be 90 million, but the serology tests — the good ones — say that we’ve confirmed less than a third of infections,” he explains.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...vid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-l...er-6-of-us-population-are-infected/a-53933626

    SUMMARY of 5 estimates

    83 million confirmed and non-confirmed cases
    90 million
    95 million
    100 million
    110 million

    ---------------------------

    Now, let's use the lowest number, thus, CDC's 83 million infections by end of Dec, 2020, thus, 4 X higher than reported;

    Total Number of infections, Dec 31st, 2020; 21 million X 4 = 84 million confirmed and non-confirmed
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    Total; 84 million

    ---------------------------

    Next...........

    Number of confirmed infections from Jan 1st, 2021 to Jul 24th, 2021; 15 million

    15 million X 4 = 60 million confirmed and non-confirmed

    Total; 84 + 60 =144 million confirmed and non-confirmed

    ----------------------------

    Percent of fully vaccinated; 50%

    U.S. Population; 332 million X 50% = 166 million

    Total; 144 + 166 = 310 million

    ------------------------------

    Next........56% at least One Dose MINUS 50% fully vaccinated = 6%

    U.S. Pop. 332 Million X 6% = 20 million

    One Dose; 50% effective, thus 20 milion DIVIDED by 2 = 10 million

    Total; 310 + 10 = 320 million

    -------------------------------

    IN ADDITION: We have approx. 73 million children age 0 to 17, and according to Trump, ''Children are almost immune''

    I believe Trump's children immunity statement qualifies as a MISINFORMATION, therefore, disreguard.

    ------------------------------

    CONCLUSION: I've used the lowest number of CONFIRMED and NON-CONFIRMED CASES, thus, CDC's 83 million estimates by end of Dec, 2020, and including vaccinations, we've achieved 96.3% herd immunity.......320M/332M = 96.3%

    However, if we were to use the estimated 95 million confirmed and non-confirmed, we would surpass 100% herd immunity.

    -------------------------------

    Well folks, we have a mystery to solve;

    Our Daily Cases 7 Day Rolling Average is currently at 49,800........https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    And the above-mentioned numbers/estimates show we've surpassed 100% herd immunity.

    ?????????????????
     
  2. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Well guess what, Dirty Donald as usual is full of **** children are not immune both babies and teenagers have died from Covid.
     
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  3. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why in the earth did he use an article from 4 months back?
     
  4. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Anthony Fauci still there is who came up with that.
     
  5. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Not just one article, I linked many, and among them, the smallest estimated 2020 ratio of Non-confirmed/confirmed cases is CDC's 4 to 1, end of Dec, 2020, and I used said estimated ratio to calculate 2021's non-confirmed cases, thus, 15 million confirmed cases X 4 = 60 million.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
  6. Bullseye

    Bullseye Well-Known Member

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    I suspect "Dirty Donald" was only repeated what "Phony-baloney Tony was telling him".
     
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  7. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Don't we need to get 75% of all our citizens vaccinated to attain herd immunity.
     
  8. edthecynic

    edthecynic Well-Known Member

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    You cook 35 million real cases into 144 million.
    So the real number is 163 million plus 35 million immune, no where near herd immunity.
     
  9. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Many people have already had the virus MORE THAN ONCE. We need to get more VACCINATED.
     
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  10. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    I didn't cook the numbers......

    Article clearly states;

    ''Most experts say that because of inadequate testing and reporting, the true number of infections is many times higher — the CDC put this number at 83 million by December 2020.

    the CDC put this number of 83 million by December 2020
    the CDC put this number of 83 million by December 2020

    Total CONFIRMED cases, end of Dec, 2020; 21M

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    21M X 4 = 84 million Confirmed and non-confirmed cases

    Thus, CDC's estimated 2020 non-confirmed/confirmed RATIO is 4 to 1

    https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/herd-immunity-closer-we-think
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
  11. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    just trust the govt and inject whatever it tells you to. math leads to conspiracy theories
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
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  12. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    NO!

    35 million Confirmed Cases + 105 million Non-confirmed Cases + 176 million vaccinated = damn near 100% herd immunity

    However, if we were to use a higher estimated number of Non-confirmed cases, we would surpass 100% herd immunity.
     
  13. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    I prefer to think COMMON SENSE should tell you to get vaccinated, not the government.
     
  14. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Wait a minute, since the pandemic began, several Republicans on this site reiterated the fact that the number of infections is significantly higher than reported, and they've used non-government sources, such as;

    https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...vid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-l...er-6-of-us-population-are-infected/a-53933626
     
  15. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    There are break through infections on the vaccines, people for whom the vaccines don't work, and people who have had covid who are now getting reinfected. Your premise is that herd immunity can be obtained. It is increasingly looking like it is impossible to obtain so we need to be focused more on the best way to treat it.
     
  16. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    clearly its a nefarious plot to hurt people. the govt only cares about our well-being
     
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  17. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    There are certainly discrepencies.

    Note: From many sources, government and private, I've used the LOWEST estimated 2020 Total infections, thus, CDC's estimated 83 million infections, and many Republicans on this site have used the highest 2020 estimates, thus, 110 million infections.......90 million Non-confirmed, and 20 milion confirmed.

    Due to the fact that over 95% of hospitalized Covid patients are unvaccinated, I believe the estimates of said non-confirmed cases are highly questionable, both number, and immunity.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
  18. FAW

    FAW Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    While the whole herd immunity concept is not of that much interest to me, I feel compelled to point out that you are incorrectly assuming that there is not any overlap in the 166 million that are vaccinated with the supposed 144 million confirmed and non confirmed cases. The notion behind non confirmed cases is with people that by in large were not aware that they were infected, and undoubtedly many of those people are also vaccinated, as is many of the people that know they were infected.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
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  19. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Although that CDC's 2020 83 million Total Infections is a non-vaccinated estimate, there are overlaps.

    The math; If we were to assume said estimated number of non-confirmed cases, + confirmed cases, both 2020 and 2021, thus, total140 million have been fully vaccinated; 140/2 = 70 million

    Note; OP's article states;

    Overlap between the two groups: While no one knows for certain how many people who were previously infected have received a vaccine, Topol estimates that about half of the 100 million U.S. residents previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 have been vaccinated. “That puts us at about 50 million who had COVID and are not vaccinated,” he says.

    That group of 50 million who are not vaccinated but have some level of natural immunity — plus the 132 million who have been vaccinated — gets us to about 182 million of the 230 million to 280 million needed to reach herd immunity

    https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/herd-immunity-closer-we-think

    psst; There are approx. 73 million children age 0 to 17, and according to Trump, children are almost immune, thus, if Trump was right, said 73 milion offsets the overlaps.




    .
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
  20. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The variants will be more deadly for the young like the flu is.
     
  21. kriman

    kriman Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    At this point, such calculations are meaningless. We are heading down a new road which appears to be such as lethal or more lethal than the previous surge.
     
  22. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Could be more deadly.

    After the first wave, the percentage of covi19 hospitalized patients ''on ventilators'' hasn't changed, 5 to 6%, however, what has significantly declined is the percentage of ICU admissions, from average 20% to 12%, due to the fact to today's covid patients are much younger, and generally healthier.

    In addition, 95% of Covid deaths were people aged 50 and over, thus, what will be the death rate of the other 5%?
     
  23. garyd

    garyd Well-Known Member

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    You know what an overlap is right and that people with the vaccine can still get the disease right?
     
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  24. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Overlaps amount to approx. 70 million, however, according to Trump; ''Children are almost immune'', thus, if Trump was right, then our estimated 73 million children, age 0 to 17 would offset said 70 million overlaps.

    My question to you; Was Trump right.....''Children are almost immune''?
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2021
  25. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Depending on the virus it sometimes targets the young. Forget which flu virus but one attacked people under 40 probably because those over 40 had antibodies against it.

    If there was zero population without anti-bodies against Covid the original 2 million predicted dying from it would be believable but t-cell tests on blood samples pre-Covid showed 40% to 60% at least partial immunity.

    As Covid mutates and if it was manipulated it would probably mutate to a less deadly variant because it’s main concern is propagation and not killing the host though it will still do that to a lower percent of the population, more like our other corona virus flus.
     

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