I Predict The US/China Trade War Will Last For Months

I predict that the trade war between the US and China will go on for months, meaning that it will stretch AT LEAST three months into the future from this date. It may go on longer than that. So people should brace themselves for the coming consequences in the form of inflation.

This trade war will last longer for essentially two reasons

1. Trump thinks he can outlast the Chinese because he feels the US economy is strong and because he feels he has the political capital.

2. The Chinese will not yield to US attempts to infringe on their sovereignty in the form of requiring them to give up a significant amount of the discretionary power of the Chinese judicial system.

For these reasons, the trade war will be long and increasingly difficult for the common people of the US and China.

 

Itll last for months because China is hoping Trump gets voted out in 2020 and is replaced by a Democrat willing to go back to the old ways of bending over and taking it, with no lube.

China cant win this, and they know it, and we know it. It's no secret.

Their only hope is a new president without a spine. Otherwise, they're ****ed in the short and long term.

So, you're probably right.

Our country will be just fine. Korea, Vietnam, and India all make the same cheap **** that China does, but there is no replacing the American consumer.

Like I said, everyone knows China will lose, including them. Their economy is as slow now as it was in 1970. Their auto exports are down 20%.

Meanwhile, our economy is doing fantastic.

 

China has been taking advantage of us for years (thanks to a bunch of spineless leaders in our country). Now all Trump wants is fair trade. But the Chinese are spoiled and hate to give up a good thing so they are bluffing Trump hoping he will give in. And the dems and the MSM are taking the side of the Chinese -- naturally. Every night the MSM is telling us how everything we buy is going to increase in price -- from shampoo to washing machines. Trump knows the Chinese are bluffing and he knows they will suffer while we continue improving our great economy under his leadership. China will come around when they see other countries filling the void at a better price and at fair trade. Trump hold all the cards and he knows it and the Chinese know it. But they have to put up a front for a while to save face. When it will end is anyone's guess but Trump will win.

 

There's no winner in a trade war. Mercantilism is dead; economic nationalism is for the herd.

 

Well yes. It’s going to last until November 2020 or November 2024.

 

Foreigners love globalism because it hurts Americans

 

We have to take the long view. It may take years but the U.S. will win. Trump in 2020 to continue to MAGA.

 

There's no long view. Both the US and China engage in unfair trade. Both the US and China will lose out from a trade war.

 

Trump can only think a few months ahead at most. China thinks in terms of decades - even centuries. China has options Trump hasn't considered. China can devalue their currency. China is developing alternate markets in Europe, Asia, and South America and will continue that push. Importers will pick up some of the cost increases caused by Trump's trade war. American consumers will continue to buy from Wal*Mart at slightly higher prices to pick up the rest. WM will continue to beat down suppliers.

Trump's arrogant belief is that his genius in trade and negotiation will carry the day. Therefore, he got himself into a "mine's bigger than yours" pissing contest with the big guys. Will the U.S. look for alternate sources of supply? What else is new? So, who will win? Nobody.

 

Oh but there is. Just look at our economy, then compare it to Chinas.

We are winning in every sense of the word.

 

A nonsense reply that has the stench of economic nationalism. This is about the reality of trade wars. They are harmful for all involved. Now you could try the WTO dispute settlement system. Mind you, a lot of the lawyers involved are suing the US...

 

China will be hoping for a weak Democrat who hates America and Americans as much as they do and doesn't care if they get screwed by china in 2020. If it looks like trump will win, and it does, China will fold.

 

Nonsense? It's the truth.

When you hold all the cards, you will win. That's how life works.

That is also how business works.

They can either play by our rules, or run their economy into the ground. Which do YOU think they'll choose?

 

Crikey, mercantilism was demolished back in the days of Ricardo? Why haven't Americans caught up?

 

Exports count for a little over 18% of China's GDP. About 20% of those exports (about 3.5% of China's GDP) go to the US.

I hardly think anyone can make China submit over that amount. It's less than China's annual growth in GDP.

China may make some concessions, but nothing major. They are now somewhat pissed and have declared the trade war a "People's War".

From RT (quoting the Global Times):

China’s state-backed Global Times has called Beijing’s trade conflict with Washington a “people’s war” and accused the US of “greed and arrogance,” after both sides hiked tariffs on each other’s exports.
“In the Sino-US trade war, the US side fights because of greed and arrogance,”read a Monday op-ed by the Global Times, published on Xinhua News. Xinhua is a state-run press agency, and Global Times usually communicates the Chinese government’s position.

America’s “morale will break at any time,”the article thundered, adding that “China is fighting back to protect its legitimate rights and interests.”

 

Trump will give it up when he perceives it as costing him the 2020 election (and the get out of jail free card that it affords).

 

Because, as I've said twice before, WE hold all the leverage.

Not China. Not India. Not Japan. Not the EU.

We do.

Its finally time we start behaving like it.

Again, if you want to do business with us, you'll play by our rules, or your **** will just sit on the loading docks with no destination.

It's as simple as that.

 

If the impact of the tariffs is minimal on China, they must be minimal on the US too. So why are Dems screaming bloody murder? I mean some here predict global economic collapse.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sc...nomy-slows-sharply-april-even-higher-us-trade

Yeah, say what you want, but China is hurting, and it's only going to get worse.

It's all a matter of how much pain they're willing to take.

I guess they could crash their own economy if they're willing to prove a point.

 

Some talk about China's 'nuclear' option .... dumping all its US securities. Frankly, I don't see that happening and, even if it did, it would be a disruption, not a collapse as it would affect our ability to sell new debt.

Those that think we hold all the cards, though, are nuts.

 

So, should we crash our economy so Trump can prove his point?

That's the problem when you have the man child in the oval office, everything becomes a personal fight Trump has to win to save face.

Unfortunately, saving face may also be more important to the Chinese leaders than economic pain. Therefore, this standoff could go on for a long time.

That's why such issues are better negotiated behind closed doors than the twitter account.

 

To be sure. But economically the US is in the stronger position. China needs economic expansion much more than the US in order to placate the rising expectations of its people. And they may be a tad overstretched by the Belt and Road initiative.

The strongest card the Chinese have is the Democratic Party and the crony globalists like Biden.

 

Why would our economy crash?

I just said we can get the same cheap **** imported from a half dozen other Asian countries.

They need us far more than we need them. There is nothing that China provides that cant be produced elsewhere.

On the flip side, if we stop buying their stuff, there is nobody else they would be able to sell it to.

You see? We hold all the cards.

 

Quote: Now all Trump wants is fair trade

The main reason why Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports is due to their unfair intellectual property protection policies.

Agree or disagree?

 

China's exports, as a % of its GDP, have been dropping since 2008. Meanwhile, domestic consumption is up. So their economic expansion is becoming less dependant on exports.

The BRI, while still in its infancy, will open up more markets for Chinese goods. Over 130 countries to date have signed on to it.

As far as the BRI goes, looks like the US, with its 'my way or the highway' attitude, will be left on the outside looking in as the 21st century unfolds.