I think the U.S. economy is going to boom once the shutdown is over. I work in an exempt from shutdown Agri-markets. And, business is booming! Supply is low, demand is high, and prices are going up not down. I know this is anecdotal evidence, but this is what I'm seeing happen now. What does that say about where we are now? Or, where we're going? What do you think? Any fancy economic jargon you want to throw out there? I'm listening.
This forecast is as good as any: thebalance The rest is for you to read. But, I frankly do not believe the remark about the unemployment rate. Unemployment was stagnant during the pre-Covid-19 years. Which means that even with some "extra fat" in terms of employment the companies did not want to shake-the-table for no apparent reason. But, in our advance out of the Industrial Age and into the Information Age, that problem of superfluous employees is going to rear its ugly-head visibly. And employment, as we all know, has a superfluous negative impact upon economic activity. (Unemployed people don't spend money they have not earned.) Many companies may well want to "thin down" somewhat their work-force as the economy advances out of the Covid-19 mess. And since economic-growth is diminishing in the data (see the graphic in the article), unemployment may rise significantly which will have a negative impact upon the economy. Which, of course, is a forecast somewhat contrary from the one given above. So pick whichever one suits you ... . . .
Here's the actual link to the news article in post #3: https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669
inflation (will rise to 2%). Oh, goodie. Maybe that will help raise the interest rate of high-yield savings accounts and CDs. I'm a low-risk saver. I would also like higher yields in long term treasury bonds, but even if they're at or near 0% interest they still double in value over 20 years, so I would probably invest my free money into them and wait it out.
You're kinda-sorta off base. This is an economics forum, not a stock-market forum. (Of which the world abounds.) Go discuss stocks in a finance forum - and I note there isn't one here. Good thinking! The stock-market is not integrally an economic subject. As put here: Economics as a subject has already far too many variances that do not respond to logic in an order to explain them. Einstein curiously enough invested all his wins from the Nobel Prize in the stock-market. (So, even the most intelligent of people, at times, can appear strange ... ;^)
Ok, I get the hint. The stock market has nothing to do with economics. Like in this video: This Crisis Is Creating Something Shady In the Stock Market Dur.:9:05.
KEY QUESTION No, none that you'd understand anyway. Consumer demand does not suddenly "get startling better" just because a crisis is over. Especially when the unemployment-rate is 15% as it presently stands. Moreover, I repeat what has become deadly-boring on this forum. That is, we have left the Industrial Age and have engaged the Information Age. Which means what? It means that this is a good-time for companies that have laid-off personnel that they did not really need anyway and will not be offering them jobs to come back. It means also that the country needs UNIFORMLY a higher level of graduating students - and by that is meant Post-secondary Education. Howzat? That's the Key Question! How do we put our kids through post-secondary education that presently is largely privatized and thus costly. Moreover in state postsecondary schooling, the average cost is $14K à year? From here: Pray tell, when a family finds itself below the Poverty Threshold (who are about 40 million individuals - see graphic "Population below Poverty Threshold" here), and your income is $25.7K (see here) pray tell, how do you send a kid to a state-university that costs $10K a year? How? By magic ... ? PS: Answer in France - A family pays $1500 a year for the child to attend a state postsecondary schooling. Presuming they stay at home, the total cost (books and all) is around $2K à school-year (9 months). And if you are truly poor the state will reimburse you that amount as well. If rent is necessary, the kid has to get a job to pay it. That is, pas de probleme!
The agriculture sector has always benefitted when supply goes down. And many severe economic problems for farmers in the past were caused by oversupply. So much so that during the Depression the US government put in place programs forcing farmers to dump their crops. Some of those programs are still in place. threads about that here: Wisconsin farmers ordered to dump milk down the drain Cherries left to rot on the ground
This well-written commentary is 8 years old and still highly relevant: Five Major Challenges Facing North American Agriculture Excerpt: The five major threats to America's agriculture: *Resource Depletion: The Costs of Industrial Agriculture *Land Management: Degrading and Undervaluing Farmland *Food Waste: Compromising Food Security *Demographic Changes: A Disconnected Public *Political Issues: The Business of Food The article is well worth the read, but not for dilettantes. Americans don't want to work in the fields anymore. If it's not the Mexicans, it's certainly not the Canadians. Which opens wide imports from wherever. Food is a strategic input to our economy. We cannot afford to depend upon importers to feed America ... PS: And note the date of the article! It is now 8 years old: And what have we done to/for BigAggie? Nada! America's agricultural policy is in the hands of the major corporate players who (indeed!) manipulate the rules in LaLaLand on the Potomac! PPS: And especially under a Replicant POTUS!
No, it doesn't. You are one of many who have a lot to learn about the stock-market. Because you think long-term it is the best investment vehicle. From Investopedia, I suggest you take the following into careful scrutiny: Like any monetary investment, there is no Golden Rule that remains true forever. One has to be lucky and if not born lucky then pretty damn wealthy to play the stock-market. And America's problem is that everybody is in a rush-to-riches so they can gallivant around town in an expensive Porsche/Ferrari ...
Well, I do know that the Stock Market is a gamble. That's why I'm against privatizing Social Security and giving everyone back their money to invest with.
You've got that right. That is, when one arrives at retirement one never knows whether retirement pensions alone are sufficient without additional funding. And that additional worth (money in the bank, property owned, etc.) will it be enough? The answer depends upon in part the risk you take and in part what "savings" (including Federal retirement benefits) that one possesses. That is never preordained. It depends upon many elements not many of which can be foreseen. There is no magic formula for the future, but it is amazing how many people "play the stock-market". Some make a lot, many lose a lot. It all depends upon one's ability to manage "chance". Which, some say, is "unmanageable". It just happens irrespective of our will ...
LMAO... Gimmie some of that JARGON... Hehe... Here is. "gold standard" or "supply side" or better yet, "fascism" I have been killing it with GOLD, SILVER, and 2 GOLD stocks. They are both AUY, GOLD (barrick) holding still for past 6 weeks as everything else goes back to unsustainable levels. The FED is so so trapped, not because I think so, but because it is a fact, so many really good economists out there NOT on the FED 3000 persons strong economist payroll that will tell the truth. Even El-Erian even said it on CNBC. He knows, this is a corrupt system and it is trapped helping the rich and pounding the poor working class into Oblivion. There is no way out, only more of the same.
The only person to have remained in place under Trump has been the Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin. Now, how do you think that came about? Because Trump kisses his you-know-what. Mnuchin was a Wall Street money kingpin before becoming Secretary of the Treasury and he will go back to that job, which is why Trump will slap-around others in his Cabinet but never ever Knuchin ...
It's not, because people are going to have no money. They will not be going back to work very soon, and will be in arrears in their mortgage, rent and debt payments for months or years. The COVID-19 emergency assistance money has almost all gone to the richest 1%, who are not interested in consumption, only in bidding up the prices of each other's rent collection privileges. Grocery stores are booming because people can't eat out! Hello? The Fed is going to try to get the economy moving again by printing a lot of money, but it won't work because it is going to give all that new money to the super-duper uber-rich, who will invest it, not to ordinary Americans who would spend it.
Here we go, you are right, people are back to work now and Trump is tweeting what a great thing it is, the virus is behind us, MAGA... Hopefully we can just cheer it forward, no real data, jobs, pay, business, price discovery in stocks, a real market, throw FED money (debt to the future) at it and hope for the best. Got to love the way the nation is ignoring reality... Even the biggest gamblers in the hedgefund world are sitting on the sidelines. They know what is coming. We have Cramer as a cheerleader for Trump and nothing more... Well, except Joe Kernan
COVID DEATHS DAILY EVOLUTION (USA) What one must look at is the trend-line of the daily-death rate. It is the ONLY meaningful measure that a dangerous virus maybe weakening. See here that daily evolution: Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths Does it look like that rate of growth is diminishing. Nope! So, watch carefully where you go and when in crowds YOU MUST wear a mask ... !
"I think the U.S. economy is going to boom once the shutdown is over" the stimulus I think we delay the Trump recession\depression some, but it is still coming I would start saving now and making sure to have extra non-paritiable food stocked up (and toilet paper) we know what is coming, time is now to be a prepper
