If Clinton wins will people accept that opinion polls are accurate?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by bigfella, Nov 8, 2016.

  1. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    7,504
    Likes Received:
    8,675
    Trophy Points:
    113
    In 2012 US Conservatives got caught up in the excitement of the 'unskewed polls' cult run by failed amateur psephologist Dean Chambers. Chambers asserted that polls were systematically 'skewed' toward the Democratic candidate for a variety of reasons from political bias to flawed models, sampling errors etc. Only polls that showed Romney winning were treated as accurate. Apparently the cult was so successful that some of Romney's advisors actually became converts. Oops!

    When the election was over it turned out the polls had been wrong - they underestimated Obama's winning margin by a couple of points. In the manner of many such men (Trump being exhibit A) Chambers blustered & made excuses & only ever half accepted that he was wrong....but not really. His acolytes followed suit: it was the weather; it was Chris Christie; it was election fraud; voters were 'stupid'.

    My personal favourite excuse is that polls showing Democrats ahead somehow convince Republicans not to vote, thus producing the results they are predicting. Real twilight zone stuff, but people believe it.

    Jump forward 4 years & all the same arguments have been trotted out by many of the same people to explain polls that consistently show Clinton ahead. This time it is different, apparently, and the arguments that were wrong in 2012 will be right this time. I've seen people on this forum claim the polls have as much as a 10% bias toward Clinton.

    So, if Clinton wins & once again all the 'skewed' and 'rigged' turn out to be broadly accurate (within the MOE) will the people who continue to make these claims accept they are wrong? Will they accept that polls are broadly accurate or will it be another excuseathon?
     
  2. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2010
    Messages:
    14,841
    Likes Received:
    4,815
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I doubt it, because the kind of people saying the polls are rigged also say the election itself is rigged. They’d probably create a little loop of logic where the polls prove the result was rigged and the result proves the polls were rigged.
     
  3. Doug_yvr

    Doug_yvr Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2008
    Messages:
    19,096
    Likes Received:
    1,827
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Let's call this 'circular illogic'.
     
  4. legojenn

    legojenn New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2008
    Messages:
    3,054
    Likes Received:
    33
    Trophy Points:
    0
    This election rigging is a big conspiracy. My guess is that around 100 million people are in on it.
     
  5. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2015
    Messages:
    46,841
    Likes Received:
    18,955
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    People who hear voices or speak with the Face On Mars will not accept that the polls are accurate.

    - - - Updated - - -

    And those are just the live ones. I understand that there are at least another 99 million dead people working on rigging the system.
     

Share This Page