If the shutdown lasts two more weeks, the cost to the economy will exceed price of Trump's wall

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by MrTLegal, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. Chuck711

    Chuck711 Well-Known Member

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    Andrew Jackson tried to eliminate Debt and he put USA in terrible recession.

    Doesn't Trump claim to be King of Debt ?

    Trump is turning USA stock into something that looks like GE stock .....
     
  2. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, our government is inefficient and irresponsible with money. Everyone seems to think that their method of wasting out hard earned money is superior. Another good reason to reduce government to a minimum.
     
  3. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    the definition of a stable economy would be a ever present demand and supply
     
  4. Egoboy

    Egoboy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Possibly the only thing he's ever owned free and clear.... Sort of ironic, if you think about it...
     
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  5. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Democrats could end this at any time but it is so important, they left town.
     
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  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Whether you agree is irrelevant. The damage to the country is objectively taking place.
     
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  7. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    They are well aware. That's why they are actively passing Bill's to re-open the parts of the government wholly unrelated to the wall.
     
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  8. carlosofcali

    carlosofcali Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I like that Pelosi is challenging Trump. Such a weak/ insecure bully like Trump being put on notice by a woman during the first week Democrats take over congress. Trump's long trial of total ineptitude/ corruption has just started. :hungry:
     
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  9. Cubed

    Cubed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They are, and it is. The people who are paid by the govt still use that money to pay private businesses for their goods and services.

    They stop getting paid and either immediately or eventually those people don't have that money, so those businesses lose business. That harms the economy.

    The transportation and distribution sectors are not stable at all.
     
  10. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Maybe you should call Chuck and Nancy and tell them to give Trump his 1/10 of 1% of the budget to help with national security.
     
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  11. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don’t care. I want teh wall.
     
  12. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Give president the budget he believes is in the best interest of the American people, and he’ll sign it. That’s in his job description, to approve or disapprove the budget.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  13. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Figure seems to have 'neglected' to factor in the massive infusion the economy will receive when the government starts back up and those workers get their back pay.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
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  14. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    caused by government
    so there you have it
    an unstable market caused by government not government making it stable
    and wasn't that your argument to begin with that you need government for a stable economy
     
  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    And maybe you should call the family of that kidnapper and demand that they pay the ransom.

    Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi are actively trying to re-open the portions of the government wholly unrelated to the border.
     
  16. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Why do you say that?
     
  17. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    so tell me what facts do you have that its causing harm country wide and not just the DC area? or is that just your opinion?
     
  18. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Because the article you linked didn't seem to mention it. I skimmed a bit and may have missed it, but it didn't seem to address it at all, which makes me think it was deliberately ignored.
     
  19. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    His job is to run the government.

    Instead, he is running the government like he said he would...

    To run it like trump university
    To run it like trump airlines
    To run it like trump casino
    To run it like trump steals
    To run it like trump water
    To run it like trump gold plated toilet seats
     
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  20. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Ok, better question then.

    Why do you think the infusion of back pay will make up for costs created by the shutdown?
     
  21. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It does mention it. It doesn't mention whether the back pay was factored into the '2 billion lost per week' figure... which means its probably not.


    "If the shutdown gets resolved before the end of the quarter, some of the lost spending may be recovered once the workers get back pay, but GDP inputs like productivity are permanently gone.

    "While government workers will likely recoup their lost wages once the government opens, as they have in the past, the many government contract workers who are out of work because of the shutdown are unlikely to get back pay," said S&P Global. "Workers who are living paycheck to paycheck will struggle to make ends meet the longer this goes on. As the standoff drags on, no paychecks are arriving to refill their savings, pay down credit card debt, make that mortgage payment, or pay their rent." "

    So the question becomes- how much (if any) of the 2B/week is lost spending (which will be recovered), and how much is lost productivity (which will not)?

    The following question is- how productive is the government? lol

    I'm betting the bulk of this $2B figure is lost spending, which will be recovered, given that productivity is difficult enough to measure in the private sector. In government, productivity is typically an afterthought with adherence to the bureaucracy being paramount, and even if they did an in depth analysis of projected lost productivity, it would be an extremely rough figure.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  22. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    At a minimal, there are federal workers living in every State. There are SNAP and Medicaid recipients living in every state. The are government contractors living in every state. There are federal lands in nearly every state. Here is an article listing the states by most and least affected.

    https://wallethub.com/edu/government-shutdown-report/1111/

    DC is the most affected, but the pain of the shutdown is being felt everywhere. Nex Mexico comes in at 2nd on that list. In my city, furloughed EPA workers showed up to help clean up a park which was flooded during a recent storm.
     
  23. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    doesn't tell me crap just a estimation of most and lest effected states no where does it give a dollar amount
     
  24. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I would not that their identification and discussion of the various inputs makes it extremely likely that the values are factored into their estimate. But it is ultimately an estimate because the shutdown is ongoing and manipulations are being made in real time (for example, the SNAP program just announced that February's allotment will available, but only if grabbed weeks or even a full month ahead of time). Also, the lack of certainty regarding the length of the shutdown creates uncertainty in the estimate as noted by the reference to whether the shutdown ends before the quarter.

    A better accounting of the costs associated with the shutdown will need to wait until it actually ends.
     
  25. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Agreed.

    And we should remember to see if they incorporate the recovered spending into those figures.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
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