Is it too late to prevent the meltdown of West Antarctica?

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by skepticalmike, Dec 20, 2021.

  1. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    You should practice what you preach. The "No Tricks Zone" often takes peer-reviewed scientific reports on climate and draws conclusions that aren't
    supported by the facts or conclusions in the peer reviewed articles. Taking a conclusion that is not supported by peer-reviewed studies and trying to
    pass that off as peer-reviewed research is what you and the "No Tricks Zone" are doing. The "No Tricks Zone" title, "Until Recently Scientists Believed
    Climate Change Has Been Melting Antarctic Glaciers. Now They Do Not", is not supported by the scientific paper that they reference. I have skimmed through the paper (read much of it) and I have read the press release more than once. There is no mention of geothermal heat being a significant source of heat that is
    causing the acceleration of glaciers melting in West Antarctica. There is no mention that the scientists who participated in this report, or any other climate scientists,
    have changed their opinions on climate change being responsible for melting glaciers in Antarctica. The authors discuss the geothermal heat affecting the
    Thwaites glacier's sliding behavior, ice over bedrock.

    The "No Tricks Zone" has been caught manipulating scientific studies in order to
    promote an anti-human-caused climate change narrative. IT looks to me that
    this is intentional or else the person responsible is very stupid.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2021
  2. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    The sheer number of people living in the equatorial belt (and either side). It's substantially more than can be fed and housed by Greenland and Siberia.
     
  3. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Now, and by themselves, sure. But if those areas became climatically similar to, say, the midwestern US or northeastern China, it would be a different story. And its not like all the currently arable land would then become too hot or arid. Most crops still flourish in higher temperatures than we grow them in now, and irrigation infrastructure already exists there. Do you have any evidense at all that increasing global temperatures would reduce the global amount of arable land, or are you speculating that it will, just as I'm speculating that I don't think it would?
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2021
  4. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Is that new analysis credible that concludes that the rising trend in global sea level is roughly the same from the years 1900-2018 and from the years 1958-2014
    at 1.5 mm/yr?
    I don't think so. It disagrees with satellite altimetry data collected from 1993 to the present. It doesn't make sense because we know that the rate of ocean
    warming has been increasing since the middle of the 19th century and thermal expansion will result in that portion of sea level rise to also increase in rate.
    We know that Greenland and Antarctica's rate of mass (ice) loss has been accelerating so that should result in an accelerated rise in global sea level.

    The rate of sea level rise has doubled from the 1993 -2020 time frame relative to the 1900-2020 time frame.

    Sea Level | Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)
    SOURCE DATA: 1900-2018
    Data source: Frederikse et al. (2020)
    Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/PO.DAAC

    [​IMG]


    upload_2021-12-21_16-41-42.png upload_2021-12-21_16-41-52.png
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2021
  5. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Seas are rising faster than ever | Science | AAAS

    Ask climate scientists how fast the world's oceans are creeping upward, and many will say 3.2 millimeters per year—a figure enshrined in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, from 2014. But the number, based on satellite measurements taken since the early 1990s, is a long-term average. In fact, the global rate varied so much over that period that it was hard to say whether it was holding steady or accelerating.

    It was accelerating, big time. Faster melting of Greenland's ice has pushed the rate to 4.8 millimeters per year, according to a 10-year average compiled for Science by Benjamin Hamlington, an ocean scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and head of the agency's sea level change team. "The [Greenland] mass loss has clearly kicked into higher gear," agrees Felix Landerer, a JPL sea level scientist. With the help of new data, new models of vertical land motion, and—this month—a new radar satellite, oceanographers are sharpening their picture of how fast, and where, the seas are gobbling up the land.

    Hamlington and colleagues first reported signs of the speedup in 2018 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Since then, they and others have become more confident about the trends. In a 2019 study in Nature Climate Change, a group led by Sönke Dangendorf, a physical oceanographer at Old Dominion University, used tide gauge readings that predate satellite records to show seas have risen 20 centimeters since 1900. The team's data show that, after a period of global dam building in the 1950s that held back surface water and slowed sea level rise, it began to accelerate in the late 1960s—not the late 1980s, as many climate scientists assumed, Dangendorf says. "That was surprising," because the main drivers of sea level rise—the thermal expansion of ocean water from global warming, together with melting glaciers and ice sheets—were thought to have kicked in later.
     
  6. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    sealevel_contributors_graph_SOTC2018_lrg.jpg | NOAA Climate.gov

    Observed sea level since the start of the satellite altimeter record in 1993 (black line), plus independent estimates of the different contributions to sea level rise: thermal expansion (red) and added water, mostly due to glacier melt (blue). Added together (purple line), these separate estimates match the observed sea level very well. NOAA Climate.gov graphic, adapted from Figure 3.15a in State of the Climate in 2018.



    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2021
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Really?
    "Geothermal heat flow in the polar regions plays a crucial role in understanding ice-sheet dynamics and predictions of sea level rise. Continental-scale indirect estimates often have a low spatial resolution and yield largest discrepancies in West Antarctica. Here we analyse geophysical data to estimate geothermal heat flow in the Amundsen Sea Sector of West Antarctica. With Curie depth analysis based on a new magnetic anomaly grid compilation, we reveal variations in lithospheric thermal gradients. We show that the rapidly retreating Thwaites and Pope glaciers in particular are underlain by areas of largely elevated geothermal heat flow, which relates to the tectonic and magmatic history of the West Antarctic Rift System in this region. Our results imply that the behavior of this vulnerable sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is strongly coupled to the dynamics of the underlying lithosphere. . . ."
     
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    According to the direct tide gauge measurements, sea level rise has been modest and the rate of rise has changed very little over the past decades.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Yes, really. You and I are both amateurs when it comes to climate science. I don't think that either one of us has the background to fully grasp what this article
    is saying. There is mention of "the rapidly retreating Thwaites and Pope glaciers" but there is no link made between melting glaciers and geothermal heat. The
    geothermal heat affects sliding of the glaciers over the bedrock. Is the geothermal heat sufficient to account for significant melting of these glaciers? No evidence
    in this article points to that being true. If it was true it would seem to me that the author would try to quantify it but that isn't done. How significant is an average of 150 mWatts/meter of geothermal heat below the base of the Thwaites Glacier which has many gaps between the glacier and the bedrock?

    From a previous post:
    “the existence of subglacial volcanism impacts both the stable and unstable dynamics of an ice sheet such as the [West Antarctic Ice Sheet]”. Subglacial volcanism can cause the base of a glacier to thaw, which causes them to behave differently than when they are frozen to the ground and can make them more vulnerable to rapid retreat. In addition, the presence of moving meltwater at the base further enables the glacier to slide along the ground.

    Regarding the Pin Island Glacier: (note that the volcanic heat triggered the
    melting but it isn't a significant source of heat that causes the glacier to melt
    after the triggering event occurs)
    The team found the helium originated in Earth’s mantle, pointing to a volcanic heat source that may be triggering melting beneath the glacier and feeding the water network beneath it. However, the researchers concluded that the volcanic heat is not a significant contributor to the glacial melt observed in the ocean in front of Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf. Rather, they attributed the bulk of the melting to the warm temperature of the deep-water mass Pine Island Glacier flows into, which is melting the glacier from underneath.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2021
  10. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Correction to my previous post: 150 mWatts/meter should be 150 milliwatts/square meter.
    Also, the volcanic heat contributes to melting underneath a glacier but not to the portion that faces the ocean and is slowly disintegrating into
    the ocean, which is the source of mass loss of the glacier and sea level rise.
     
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I'm afraid you're just in denial. Merry Christmas.

    ". . . The thermal anomalies, attributed to a thin and laterally heterogeneous rifted crust, magmatism and inferred fault reactivation, are likely to cause a heat-advective effect on the deep hydrological system and, therefore, exert a profound influence on the flow dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea sector. The direct transfer of heat can facilitate basal melting and control the ice rheology and basal sliding, and thus erosion39. High geothermal heat flow beneath Thwaites and Pope glaciers could further contribute to rapid past and future changes in the glacier system. Our results in the Amundsen Sea region provide a new base for discussing the location and extent of crustal-scale thermal anomalies. This is a key finding to better characterize basal sliding properties and subglacial hydrology, as well as refine thermal boundary conditions for studies of ice sheet dynamics in the most rapidly changing sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. . . . ."
     
  12. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    I am denying your interpretation of the scientific article in the magazine "Nature" which I have read. I am denying the claim made by "The No Tricks Zone",

    The claim made by "The No Tricks Zone" is false. Where is there evidence that scientists say that glacial mass losses are due to the thin underlying
    crust and anomalously high geothermal heat and not anthropogenic climate change? The geothermal heat is a contributing factor but it isn't close to being the whole story. There is no mention of geothermal heat being the sole cause of the melting of any of West Antarctica's glaciers nor is there any mention in the article
    that attempts to quantify how much of the mass loss might be due to geothermal heat. The press release from the Alfred Wegener Institute was manipulated
    by "The No Tricks Zones". Here is the press release: " Until recently, experts attributed these changes to climate change and the fact that the glacier rests on the seafloor in many places, and as such comes into contact with warm water masses. But there is also a third, and until now one of the most difficult to constrain, influencing factors. In a new study, German and British researchers have shown that there is a conspicuously large amount of heat from Earth's interior beneath the ice, which has likely affected the sliding behaviour of the ice masses for millions of years. This substantial geothermal heat flow, in turn, are due to the fact that the glacier lies in a tectonic trench, where the Earth's crust is significantly thinner than it is e.g. in neighbouring East Antarctica. The new study was published today in the Nature online journal Communications Earth & Environment." Later in the press release it says: "Nevertheless, the heat flow could be a crucial factor that needs to be considered when it comes to the future of Thwaites Glacier. According to Gohl: "Large amounts of geothermal heat can, for example, lead to the bottom of the glacier bed no longer freezing completely or to a constant film of water forming on its surface. Both of which would result in the ice masses sliding more easily over the ground." The geothermal heat is described in the press release as a third and difficult to constrain influencing factor and that it could be a crucial factor that
    needs to be considered when it comes to the future of Thwaites Glacier. There are 2 other factors contributing to Thwaites Glacier's loss of mass: climate change and the fact that it comes into contact with warm water since it is partially underwater. This is mentioned earlier in the press release.

    The press release can be found at Science Daily.
    Thwaites glacier: Significant geothermal heat beneath the ice stream: Researchers map the geothermal heat flow in West Antarctica; a new potential weak spot in the ice sheet’s stability is identified -- ScienceDaily



    No Tricks Zone claim:
    According to a new study, 36% of 1979-2017 Antarctic ice loss was from the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. Scientists believed this glacier melt was due to anthropogenic climate change “until recently”. Now they say the glacier mass losses are due to the thin underlying crust and anomalously high geothermal heat in this region.

     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2021
  13. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    The article below is from Live Science and it is an example of good journalism as opposed to the biased and sensationalism of "The No Tricks Zone"
    that Jack Hays relies on. The "No Tricks Zone" often distorts the scientific findings of peer-reviewed research and it also presents fringe research
    that escapes peer-review that helps support its narrative that anthropogenic climate change is a bunch of baloney.

    Antarctica's 'Doomsday Glacier' is fighting an invisible battle against the inner Earth, new study finds | Live Science

    West Antarctica is one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth. For evidence, you need look no further than Thwaites Glacier — also known as the "Doomsday Glacier."

    Since the 1980s, Thwaites has lost an estimated 595 billion tons (540 billion metric tons) of ice, single-handedly contributing 4% to the annual global sea-level rise during that time, Live Science previously reported. The glacier's rate of ice loss has accelerated substantially in the past three decades, partially due to hidden rivers of comparatively warm seawater slicing across the glacier's underbelly, as well as unmitigated climate change warming the air and the ocean.

    Earth itself may also be giving West Antarctica's glaciers a disproportionately nasty kick.

    In a study published Aug. 18 in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, researchers analyzed geomagnetic field data from West Antarctica to create new maps of geothermal heat flow in the region — essentially, maps showing how much heat from Earth's interior is rising up to warm the South Pole.


    Later, in the article: "It's hard to tell exactly how warm the glacier is where the ice meets the seabed, as different types of rock conduct heat differently — however, the researchers said, it's clear that this extra supply of heat in the West can only mean bad news for Thwaites."



    My response:
    Notice that the livescience article does not attribute all of the ice loss to geothermal heat. It also attributes ice loss to climate change and warm seawater coming into contact with the submerged portion of the glacier. I believe that warm seawater is mostly a climate change phenomenon from what I have read.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2021
  14. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Your graph does not represent global sea level rise. It is a very limited representation of a few regions of the earth (note the red dots).
    It doesn't compare to satellite altimetry data taken since 1993. This is more disinformation put out by Jack Hays who either doesn't
    understand that it is disinformation or is intentionally misleading people.
     
  15. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You would do better if your reading of the NTZ post were not so selective. It also included this.
    [​IMG]

    Image Source: (Dziadek et al., 2021)
     
  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You are claiming certainty where there is none. I suggest I'm not the one doing the misleading.

    In 2018, Frederikse et al published a paper whose results found sea level rise in the South Atlantic Ocean was only 1.5 mm/year between 1958 and 2014.

    [​IMG]
     
    Sunsettommy likes this.
  17. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    I don't disagree with those results. Notice the last sentence: Since 1993, both reconstructed sea level and the sum of
    contributors show good agreement with altimetry results. The altimetry results (estimates) show a doubling of the global
    sea level rate from the period 1993 - 2020 versus the period 1900-2020 made with tidal guages. This agreement is shown on
    the graph below. Note the dams built during 1960 to 1980 slowed sea level rise.
    The dam projects explain why sea level rise between 1958-2014 was low.

    SOURCE DATA: 1900-2018
    Data source: Frederikse et al. (2020)
    Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/PO.DAAC

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2021
  18. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    The Thwaites Glacier is part of West Antarctica with a 120 km coastline and if it melts down it will probably take all of West Antarctica with it.

    The 'doomsday' glacier is on the brink of collapse (msn.com)
    Climate change is destabilizing the 'doomsday glacier' | Popular Science (popsci.com)


    The Florida-sized Thwaites glacier in Antarctica, nicknamed the “doomsday glacier,” is already losing 50 billion tons of ice each year. That in itself accounts for around 4 percent of annual global sea level rise. But unpublished research shared at the American Geophysical Union fall meeting this week shows that the thinning ice shelf extending from Thwaites could shatter within the next three to five years. Behind Thwaites lies an even larger body of ice that, if the glacier melts, will be exposed to increasingly warm waters.

    “Thwaites is the widest glacier in the world,” Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and lead coordinator for the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), said in a press release. “It’s doubled its outflow speed within the last 30 years, and the glacier in its entirety holds enough water to raise [global] sea levels by over two feet. And it could lead to even more sea level rise, up to 10 feet, if it draws the surrounding glaciers with it.”

    Thwaites has been in trouble for a while now—and scientists have been trying to figure out how exactly climate change will impact the rate of melting on it and other vulnerable glaciers. These new insights, however, show that the warming Southern Ocean is melting the ice from below, forming large cracks across the floating ice shelf.

    “If Thwaites were to collapse, it would drag most of West Antarctica’s ice with it,” Scambos said in the release. “So it’s critical to get a clearer picture of how the glacier will behave over the next 100 years.” Research from the ITGC, a group of 100 scientists making up the largest UK-US project on the southern continent in 70 years, will continue surveying Thwaites's shaky future.

    Thwaites Glacier - Wikipedia

    Thwaites Glacier is closely watched for its potential to raise sea levels.[6] Along with the Pine Island Glacier, it has been described as part of the "weak underbelly" of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, due to its apparent vulnerability to significant retreat. This hypothesis is based on both theoretical studies of the stability of marine ice sheets and observations of large changes on these two glaciers. In recent years, the flow of both of these glaciers has accelerated, their surfaces have lowered, and their grounding lines have retreated.

    The Thwaites Ice Shelf, a floating ice shelf which braces and restrains the eastern portion of Thwaites Glacier, is likely to collapse within a decade from 2021, leading to increased outflow and contribution to sea-level rise.[7][8][9]

    In 2020, scientists discovered warm water underneath the glacier for the first time.[14][15] The place where the glacier was in contact with the sea had been recorded as 2 degree Celsius above the freezing temperature.[16] The discovery was a part of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration, a partnership primarily between US and UK academic institutions. This study has raised alarm regarding the glacier collapse, which can lead to nearly 3 ft (0.9 m) rise in the sea level.[17]

    A 2014 University of Washington study, using satellite measurements and computer models, predicted that the Thwaites Glacier will gradually melt, leading to an irreversible collapse over the next 200 to 1000 years.[20][21][22][23][24][25]

    West Antarctic Ice Sheet - Wikipedia
    Potential collapse
    Large parts of the WAIS sit on a bed which is both below sea level and sloping downward inland.[A] This slope, and the low isostatic head, mean that the ice sheet is theoretically unstable: a small retreat could in theory destabilize the entire WAIS, leading to rapid disintegration. Current computer models do not account well for the complicated and uncertain physics necessary to simulate this process, and observations do not provide guidance, so predictions as to its rate of retreat remain uncertain. This has been known for decades.[9]
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2021
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Little to be done about a situation driven by geothermal heat.
    1. Thwaites glacier: Significant geothermal heat beneath the ice stream
      2021 › 08 › 19 › thwaites-glacier-significant-geothermal-heat-beneath-the-ice-stream
      thick, geothermal heat flow of up to 150 milliwatts per square metre can occur beneath Thwaites Glacier ... to the future of Thwaites Glacier. According to Gohl: “Large amounts of geothermal heat can, for example
      to the future of Thwaites Glacier. According to Gohl: “Large amounts of geothermal heat can, for example
      [​IMG]
    2. Uh oh: Study says 'collapsing' Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica melting from geothermal heat, not 'climate change' effects
      2014 › 06 › 09 › uh-oh-study-says-collapsing-thwaites-glacier-in-antarctica-melting-from-geothermal-heat-not-co2-heat-effects
      Antarctic glacier melting from geothermal sources ... AUSTIN, Texas — Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly ... his findings, the minimum average geothermal heat flow beneath Thwaites Glacier is about 100 milliwatts
      3 millimetres per year from the geothermal heat. ... And the geothermal heat is clearly extremely variable
      [​IMG]
    3. New paper finds West Antarctic glacier likely melting from geothermal heat below
      2014 › 10 › 12 › new-paper-finds-west-antarctic-glacier-likely-melting-from-geothermal-heat-below
      Antarctica, the Thwaites Glacier, is primarily melting from below due to geothermal heat flux from volcanoes ... beneath Thwaites Glacier revealed from airborne gravimetry, possible implications for geothermal heat flux
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2021
  20. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The evidence continues to accumulate.
    "While the Earth’s crust has an average thickness of about 40 km, in the region of the Thwaites, Pine Island, and Pope Glaciers, the anomalously thinner crust (10 to 18 km) more readily exposes the base of this regional ice to 580°C tectonic trenches.

    The “elevated geothermal heat flow band is interpreted as caused by an anomalously thin crust underlain by a hot mantle,” which is exerting a “profound influence on the flow dynamics of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet.”

    Yet another claim made by anthropogenic global warming enthusiasts has been interred by scientific observation."

    [​IMG]

    Image Source: (Dziadek et al., 2021)

    Until Recently Scientists Believed Climate Change Has Been Melting Antarctic Glaciers. Now They Do Not.
    By Kenneth Richard on 6. September 2021
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2021
  21. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    "What's Up with That" (WUWT) website is doing the same thing as "The No Tricks Zone". It is basically lying to its readers by telling them that the
    melting of Thwaites Glacier is not the result of climate change but entirely the result of geothermal heat. That is true for sources 2 and 3, but the spin is more subtle in the case of your third source. None of the articles are making that claim.
    I don't know how much of the melting is being caused by geothermal heat - maybe very little of it. Has the geothermal heat flow increased since
    the year 2000? The ice melt has acclelerated since the year 2000 and that is probably the result of humans and warmer water melting the glacier
    from below. Would the Thwaites Glacier be threatened by geothermal heat alone? I doubt it.

    "Nevertheless, the heat flow could be a crucial factor that needs to be considered when it comes to the future of Thwaites Glacier." - that is all that
    we know and it is a quote coming from your first source.

    This is also from the abstract in the first source, "But there is also a third, and until now one of the most difficult to constrain, influencing factors." - that refers to
    geothermal heat as a third factor with climate change being one of the other factors. Geothermal is a difficult to constrain, influencing factor, meaning that
    the scientists who wrote the report don't know how much effect it is going to have on the fate of the Thwaites Glacier. They mention the need for further study.

    The title of source 2 is a lie by WUWT similar to the lie by "The No Tricks Zone".

    The title of the scientific report from your source #3 is shown below (there is no mention of geothermal heat as being a significant source for the current or future melting of the Thwaites Glacier).
    Variable crustal thickness beneath Thwaites Glacier revealed from airborne gravimetry, possible implications for geothermal heat flux in West Antarctica

     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2021
  22. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Well-Known Member

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    Jack Hays responses could make a good case study in the phenomenon of "confirmation bias". He is always relying on someone else's spin or
    some faulty analysis from an unreputable source to back up his claims. He rejects the most solid scientific reports and analysis.
     
  23. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    And yet, all the areas of most ice loss are the areas with most geothermal heat. Hmmm.
     
  24. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I'm not the one denying the science.
     
  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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