Is it too late to prevent the meltdown of West Antarctica?

I don't take any pleasure from criticizing people. I dislike doing it and I had second thoughts when I made those comments.

It is left as an excercise for the student (reader of these posts) to determine the truth for himself or herself.

 

I read through this entire article from NOAA : Antarctica is colder than the Arctic, but it’s still losing ice | NOAA Climate.gov

There is a discussion on melting West Antarctica glaciers and no mention is made of geothermal heat as being a cause for this.
The article was written on March 12, 2019 and updated on October 7, 2021. Is this because of a conspiracy to defraud the public,
incompetence, or no mention is needed since geothermal energy flux is not a very significant factor? They point to a warmer
Southern Ocean and a warmer circumpolar current melting ice on Western Antarctica.

"West of the Antarctic Peninsula, measurements dating back to the 1950s show a strong warming trend in the upper ocean: nearly 2.7°F. Meanwhile, waters of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), far below the surface, have warmed faster than the rest of the global ocean. Between depths of 1,000 and 3,000 feet, ACC temperatures rose by 0.11°F per decade between the 1960s and the 2000s. Between the 1980s and 2013, ACC temperatures at those depths rose by 0.16°F per decade."

Later in the article (no mention of geothermal heat):

"Another process that could accelerate ice loss is warm-water-driven melt on the underside of the ice. As the ice thins, warm water can reach further inland, thinning the glacier especially quickly in places where the bedrock is below sea level. A 2019 study led by Nicholas Golledge stated that warm-ocean-driven melt from Antarctica and Greenland combined could contribute up to 10 inches to global sea level by the year 2100. Antarctica is expected to respond slowly to underside melt at first, with an accelerating response later in the century. The authors stated that the ice-acceleration tipping point may have already been reached for parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet."

 

If you're a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Geothermal heat attribution for ice loss is just not in the authors' cognitive sphere. They inadvertently made the geothermal case with this graphic.

Adapted from Nicolas and Bromsich 2014, this map shows 1958–2012 year-round temperature trends in °C per decade. The thick black line delineates the area with 95% confidence (West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula). NS indicates that the area east of the thick black line has confidence levels that are not statistically significant.

 

marineicesheet_lrg.png | NOAA Climate.gov




The grounding zone has been retreating about 1 km/year which will allow more warm water to flow underneath the ice sheet. " Although not unexpected, given the 10-kilometer retreat of the grounding line in the past decade - Science Ice shelf holding back keystone Antarctic glacier within years of failure | Science | AAAS


Marine Ice Sheet instability (antarcticglaciers.org) (No mention of geothermal heat and the article was written in 2020)

Hypothesis of marine ice sheet instability
Much of West Antarctica drains through the Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites ice streams into Pine Island Bay. These ice shelves are warmed from below by Circumpolar Deep Water[5], which has resulted in system imbalances, more intense melting, glacier acceleration and drainage basin drawdown[6-8]. This is the “Weak Underbelly” of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet[9], which may be prone to collapse. Pine Island Glacier is currently thinning[10], and, combined with rapid basal melting of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves[11], means that there is concern for the future viability of its fringing ice shelves.

The Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis is that atmospheric and oceanic warming could result in increased melting and recession at the grounding line on a reverse slope gradient[12]. This would result in the glacier becoming grounded in deeper water and a greater ice thickness. This is because the grounding line in this region has a reverse-bed gradient, becoming deeper inland. Stable grounding lines cannot be located on upward-sloping portions of seafloor[13]. Ice thickness at the grounding line is a key factor in controlling flux across the grounding line[3], so thicker ice grounded in deeper water would result in floatation, basal melting, increased iceberg production, and further retreat within a positive feedback loop. This would result in a rapid melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, triggering rapid sea level rise.

 

They don't see the elephant in the room. Here's some 2021.
High geothermal heat flow beneath Thwaites Glacier in West ...
https://www.nature.com › ... › articles

by R Dziadek · 2021 — Geothermal heat flow of the Antarctic continent is one of the essential geophysical parameters for both delineating and identifying tectonic and ...

Abstract
Geothermal heat flow in the polar regions plays a crucial role in understanding ice-sheet dynamics and predictions of sea level rise. Continental-scale indirect estimates often have a low spatial resolution and yield largest discrepancies in West Antarctica. Here we analyse geophysical data to estimate geothermal heat flow in the Amundsen Sea Sector of West Antarctica. With Curie depth analysis based on a new magnetic anomaly grid compilation, we reveal variations in lithospheric thermal gradients. We show that the rapidly retreating Thwaites and Pope glaciers in particular are underlain by areas of largely elevated geothermal heat flow, which relates to the tectonic and magmatic history of the West Antarctic Rift System in this region. Our results imply that the behavior of this vulnerable sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is strongly coupled to the dynamics of the underlying lithosphere.

 

And all the way back to 2018:
Discovery of high geothermal heat at South Pole - British ...
https://www.bas.ac.uk › News

Nov 14, 2018 — Scientists have discovered an area near the South Pole where the base of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting unexpectedly quickly. Using radar to ...

This new study explains how an unusual amount of geothermal heat has melted, and continues to melt, the base of the ice, resulting in the ice sheet layers above sagging downwards.

The team believes the heat source is a combination of unusually radioactive rocks, and hot water coming from deep under the ground. This heat melts the base of the ice sheet, producing melt-water which drains away beneath the ice sheet filling subglacial lakes downstream. The presence of this extra water may help lubricate the fast flowing ice in this area. . . .

 

Jack Hays: "If you're a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Geothermal heat attribution for ice loss is just not in the authors' cognitive sphere. They inadvertently made the geothermal case with this graphic."

How do you know that geothermal heat attribution for ice loss is not in the author's cognitive sphere? That is pure speculation. They have to be aware of it and
I don't regard these author's as being too dumb not to consider it

They don't make the geothermal case with that graphic. You are assuming that they are but how do you know that the warming isn't being caused
by humans? An explanation for why West Antarctica is warming more than East Antarctica is covered in this article below and it is an anthropogenic
cause.
A possible explanation for why West Antarctica is warming faster than East Antarctica (phys.org)

 

You're the one who said they didn't mention it. And their graphic aligns temperature and geothermal heat exactly. If they did not notice that then my point is made.

 

Later, in the same article:
( Also, the size of this warm spot was equivalent to the size of greater London -not a very large surface area.)

Lead author Dr Tom Jordan from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) says:

“The process of melting we observe has probably been going on for thousands or maybe even millions of years and isn’t directly contributing to ice sheet change. However, in the future the extra water at the ice sheet bed may make this region more sensitive to external factors such as climate change”.

 

Yes, and . . . ?

 

I don't see any elephant in the room. I see confirmation bias by you. This article states something that we already know and have discussed. It must be
known by all of the scientific community involved in studying W. Antarctica's ice loss. Again, there is no attempt in the abstract to make any claims that
the rapidly retreating Thwaites and Pope glaciers are actually rapidly retreating because of geothermal heat. I have previously posted an article about
how the geothermal heat under or around the Pope glacier is not considered to be significant enough to account for its rapid retreat.

 

". . . the rapidly retreating Thwaites and Pope glaciers in particular are underlain by areas of largely elevated geothermal heat flow, . . . " Game. Set. Match.
Your gymnastics to avoid the obvious are impressive.
Ever since antarctic geothermal heat showed up in research results there seems to have been reluctance by some to acknowledge it.

 

Fire and Ice: Why Volcanic Activity Is Not Melting the Polar Ice Sheets – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)

Antarctica Has Volcanoes, but There's No Link to its Current Ice Loss

The team found the helium originated in Earth’s mantle, pointing to a volcanic heat source that may be triggering melting beneath the glacier and feeding the water network beneath it. However, the researchers concluded that the volcanic heat is not a significant contributor to the glacial melt observed in the ocean in front of Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf. Rather, they attributed the bulk of the melting to the warm temperature of the deep-water mass Pine Island Glacier flows into, which is melting the glacier from underneath.

Seroussi notes the changes happening now, especially in West Antarctica, are along the coast, which suggests the changes taking place in the ice sheet have nothing to do with volcanism, but are instead originating in the ocean. Ice streams reaching inland begin to flow and accelerate as ice along the coast disappears.

In addition, Seroussi says the tectonic plate that Antarctica rests upon is one of the most immobile on Earth. It’s surrounded by activity, but that activity also tends to keep it locked in position. There’s no reason to believe it would change today to impact the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

So, in conclusion, while Antarctica’s known volcanism does cause melting, Ivins and Seroussi agree there’s no connection between the loss of ice mass observed in Antarctica in recent decades and volcanic activity. The Antarctic ice sheet is at least 30 million years old, and volcanism there has been going on for millions of years. It's having no new effect on the current melting of the ice sheet.

 

Beside the point. Volcanism =/= geothermal heat.
All volcanism is geothermal heat, but not all geothermal heat is volcanism.
And btw, he's also wrong about Greenland.

1. Newly discovered Greenland (mantle) plume drives thermal activities in the Arctic
   2020 › 12 › 07 › newly-discovered-greenland-mantle-plume-drives-thermal-activities-in-the-arctic
   seismographs he installed on the Greenland ice sheet as part of the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network ... IMAGE: A SEISMIC STATION ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET INSTALLED BY AUTHORS. SNOW ACCUMULATION
   or hotspot under Greenland. It is under Iceland. But the plume did pass under Greenland from 80 to 20 million
   
2. Newly Discovered Greenland Plume Drives Thermal Activities in the Arctic
   2020 › 12 › 29 › newly-discovered-greenland-plume-drives-thermal-activities-in-the-arctic
   seismographs he installed on the Greenland ice sheet as part of the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network ... researchers understands more about the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. They discovered a flow of hot rocks
   none of their falsely named "Greenland Plume" comes to the surface in Greenland.
   
3. Uh, oh. New study shows Earth's internal heat drives rapid ice flow and subglacial melting in Greenland
   2016 › 04 › 06 › uh-oh-new-study-shows-earths-internal-heat-drives-rapid-ice-flow-and-subglacial-melting-in-greenland
   and cause Greenland's ice to rapidly flow and melt from below. An anomaly zone crosses Greenland from west ... material heated and thinned Greenland at depth producing a strong geothermal anomaly that spans a quarter

 

It may be that he chose to speak about volcanism in order to avoid talking about geothermal heat. Not the first time a government interview was wordsmithed.