It's official: July was hottest month on record

It's official: July was hottest month on record
Nine of the 10 hottest Julys on record have occurred since 2005. The last five have been the five hottest Julys ever
https://apple.news/AD8hxT3CsT5KlPL0TaDxCuA

The goal posts continue to shift for the skeptic community


20 years ago skeptics claimed the climate is not warming

That shifted to .... it is natural variations.... sometimes warmer sometimes cooler.... but, on balance there is no climate change

Then they recognized that there was a period of warming, but now it has paused, so warming was a temporary trend that has stopped

Hopefully we can now agree that. FOR WHAT EVER REASON... the climate.
is warming.

This is a trend that has continues for about 50 years. People have argued that such changes have happened in the past.... the medieval warm period, etc. BUT, physics is physics is physics....and such changes do not happen without cause.

Arguing that such changes “have happened before and are therefore normal” still requires an physical explanation of of what is going on. It requires an explanation beyond: the climate changes naturally.... it always has and always will.

Yes, we have had ice ages come... and ice ages go.... and what ever is going on with the climate, we are in the middle of one of those cycles. But those cycles were and are governed by physics.... physical processes.... volcanoes, shifts in orbit, asteroid impacts, solar activity, etc. and what ever is going on with the climate right now, we should be able observe and study... and increasingly understand that process.

Now, as it happens.... scientists 150 years ago observed that some gasses would have a differential impact on the earth's climate. 150 years ago, a scientist PREDICTED. that if humans continued to increase the atmospheric concentration of CO2, the result would be to warm the climate.

This guy had no government grants. He did not get rich from his prediction. He was not paid by the chinese. He did not suppress skeptic scientists.

Maybe the warming we have seen is caused by some other factors. But a prediction WAS MADE 150 years ago. And THAT prediction seems to correspond to what has and is happening. So yes, there has been a prediction that has come true.

If one wants to argue that warming is on balance good;
or that increased co2 is on balance good;
Or that warming has not, and will not cause the alarmist predicted disasters
Or that we in the usa cannot change the world by our policies
Or maybe you have some other reason not to be concerned

But at the very least... lets agree that

—- the climate is warming
—-this warming is approximately consistent with the projected impact of increased CO2 concentrations
—- there is no other BETTER explanation of the observed climate change
—- no skeptic of AGW has made better predictions of future climate trends

 

Interesting how warming started as the LIA ended which corresponds to the beginning of the industrial revolution. Does this mean man ended the LIA and saved us from what would have been an ongoing ice age? That would be the logical conclusion of your premise and if it was true god bless our C02

 

We should be suffering a new ice age according to the solar minimum....strange that we are heating instead. Gotta love them Sun Spots.

 

So I'll ask you the same question. Since the end of the LIA and the beginning of the industrial revolution coincided and since alarmist equate that to mean we now control climate did our C02 save us from a very long ice age and turn it into a very short one?
Part two of the question is if our C02 controls climate doesn't it stand to reason that with careful manipulation of our C02 output we could keep earths climate in what we deem to be a sweet spot? A Goldilocks climate, not too hot not too cold, just right?

 

we could if we could get everyone to do the same thing at the same time for long periods of time

 

Pray tell me... how you going to manipulate CO2 in the future when it is out of control now? And besides.... isn't rationing fossil fuels against everything you stand for?

 

The focus on CO2 (a minor input in context) is very shortsighted and ignorant. Your fixation of the LIA and past climate instead of current problems is disingenuous and equally ignorant.....seemingly purposefully. The correlation you put forward does not match the timeline unless great assumptions and wiggle room are applied, so it is best ignored in this debate. It would seem you wish to avoid discussing the actual topic in preference of the inane....I do not wish to play that game.

 

Are you denying the fact that the LIA ended as the industrial revolution began or are you denying that alarmist claim our C02 is the primary driver in climate change? Both? Neither?

 

Thank you for an honest response to a question the other guy ran from. You actually do believe with careful manipulation we could control climate and keep it where we think it should be. The sweet spot for mankind would be obtainable after of course we decided exactly what that is.

 

You answered a question with a question which is running from the initial question but I'll elaborate.
If you believe our C02 ended the LIA and we can control climate with our C02 output wouldn't a sudden and drastic reduction of our C02 be dangerous and possibly put us back in an ice age? Wouldn't it be better to very slowly and in a controlled fashion reduce our C02 until we got that Goldielocks climate that the cult longs for and believes once existed at some magic earth time?

 

The little Ice Age was actually a series of cooler periods interrupted by moderate warming so the whole Idea is not what you seem to think it was....It was not even an Ice Age. The industrial revolution and large scale carbon fuel use most certainly had an effect on climate and still do, but the correlation is primarily coincidental in my view. The LIA would likely still be fluctuating regional temperatures more dramatically toward cooling trends without carbon inputs but Solar minimums must be considered as well.

 

So maybe we are still in the LIA and in one of those war warm spells you speak of? Maybe the regional fluctuations you also mentioned that we had in the LIA are just continuing now? I just returned from two weeks in Tahoe where many trails only recently opened and snow still clings to the peaks after a record breaking snowfall last winter. Could this not be just what was happening during the LIA and maybe we are still in it?

 

The current warming does not seem regional for the most part and winter is not climate, it is weather. The warning trend is far more extreme and widespread than ANYTHING in the LIA and should be a cooling trend according to Sun Spot observation and solar activity. I prefer to avoid "Maybes" when discussing science.

 

No... Because there are other things involved and yours is a very simplistic view and man does NOT control the climate he only contributes to the problem. Consider this ; a fish in a fish tank does not control the water quality but he does contribute to polluted water through the process of elimination. In a confined environment .... or crowded conditions.... A fish will destroy the environment ..... but not control it. So what do you do ???? Reduce the surplus population.... More green O2 producing plants.... in other words ..... Bring balance to the system.... The point is .... the system is out of balance..... and only we know it.

 

Winter is weather not climate? Individual storms I agree are weather but an entire winter is now weather?

" Iprefer to avoid "Maybes" when discussing science."

Isn't that exactly what the AGW hypothesis is? A great big unproven "maybe"?

As for the current warming being bigger than any previous warming in the LIA.

Can we agree at least that sudden and dramatic shifts in climate are more the norm than the exception?
"Change in Earth's average global temperature over the past 1000 years showing that during the Medieval Warm Period (950-1100A.D.) temperatures were likely similar to the first part of the 20th century, climate cooled during the Little Ice Age(1350-1850), and has warmed dramatically in recent decades.Nov 14, 2007"

https://www.windows2universe.org › ...

 

Well we agree man does not control the climate as many alarmist profess so the only real point of contention would be what exactly is mans influence on climate? Would you care to put a number on it between 10% and 90%?

Now as for "balance to the system" have a number for that? Does that mean zero additional C02 put in by man or some number between zero and our current contribution? What would that balance number be?

 

Your questions don't really have any depth, Joseph, until you yourself answer them. Then people can respond.

 

I'm not the one claiming credit for controlling climate so I can only ask questions of those that claim we do.
It seems like when asked specifics instead of an overarching basic concept these believers suddenly get a bit tongue tied but my questions are honest and sincere in an attempt to understand their reasoning.

 

It ended before the industrial revolution began just as all 9 previous cooling periods did in the Holocene. CO2 had nothing to do with those very similar cycles which include the Medieval, Roman, and Minoan warm periods.

 

Yes, winter is seasonal variation in weather due to axial tilt and orbital dynamics of our planet whereas climate is the long term trend of atmospheric and geographic temperature and precipitation.

Climate Change in this context is a well documented and verified reality as this thread also indicates vs. the speculation and purposeful ignorance you project.

"Sudden" shifts in climate have generally meant century or longer variations instead of the decades and year to year temperature changes and weather events we are dealing with in real time.

 

Why is, according to alarmists, CO2 the primary driver of global warming now but it was not a factor in the 9 previous warming and cooling periods ??

 

But the global warmer charts and graphs all begin during the LIA and show the correlation between the following industrial revolution and the climate warming so surly man ended the LIA with industrialization

This ignores the sudden shifts in climate during the LIA which were definitely year to year as in "the summer that never was".

 

Some actually begin in the early 80’s to avoid the cooling in the 70’s and the warming in the 30’s and 40’s at the same rate we saw in the 80’s and 90’s.

Shifts in weather from year to year are due to ocean and solar cycles. Global warming from CO2 per the IPCC consensus numbers is ~ 0.03 degrees Centigrade per year.

 

It does not "Ignore" it but instead encompasses it, and I am not sure what "Warmer Charts" you refer to but they are irrelevant to this debate.

 

OK back to this debate. When you claimed "Sudden" shifts in climate have generally meant century or longer" were you saying these events in your following quote lasted a century or longer not just years or even decades? Just how long do you think the LIA lasted?
I know you hate that subject because it truly is the "inconvenient truth" in this debate.