Kasich: 'Ballgame is over' if I get 'smoked' in NH

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by MMC, Jan 17, 2016.

  1. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    they are just hoping to get a VP spot, but I think that will most likely go to Haley at this point. IMHO that's the best they can hope for. I don't think they are stupid enough to destroy the party's hold on the House and Senate which is what the Dems are hoping for. One has to remember the GOP establishment has a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. One also has to remember the billionaires and banker could care less whether there is a D or an R behind the name of the candidate as long as there is a price tag
     
  2. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Rubio is on the Ropes.....his strategy is unconventional. It didn't count for anything but to make a showing for the first 3 states and taking a second or third in Nevada. Its a mimic of when Bilbo Clinton ran after the first 3.

    Both Rubio and Bush have money backing them. Now they have no choice but to play for delegates and try to contest.
     
  3. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Repubs wont lose the House. The Senate is in serious contention and maybe lost. Mark Kirk of Illinois should be expected as a loss. As the Repubs in Illinois and Joe Walsh are leading a push to run him out. Even accepting a defeat to the Demos Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. Kirk holds BO's old Senate seat, which he didn't have long.

    So with the Senate the Repubs wont be holding their same seats.
     
  4. polgara

    polgara Member Past Donor

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    Good morning, MMC!

    I have read that some say Bush and Kasich do not like each other, which might be an awkward problem for Kasich, since the hierarchy appears to want Bush on the ticket! I don't think the voters want another Bush/Clinton contest, though, and Bush would probably lose because of sheer numbers of voters who like their "gimmies" and don't want to stop getting them. Bush hasn't been exactly inspiring until the last debate when he finally started looking like he might actually want the job! Kasich is the most qualified of all the candidates, and has an outstanding record of getting things done, both in DC and as Governor of Ohio, turning deficits into surpluses in both places. Time will tell, but the establishment needs to stop being stubborn about pushing Bush over all the other GOP candidates, IMO, and the Dems need to stop pushing Hillary since Sanders is more popular with the Dem voters than Hillary! The people are tired of having to hold their nose to vote for the establishment's choice!
     
  5. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    Key to the Senate may be down to turnout, in which case the GOP's best decision would be to generate a large turnout. Kasich can't even fill a high school gym and neither can Bush. As far as a contested primary if it gets bloody the RNC will lose on all counts but my opinion is if Trump is a few votes shy he is the master of the deal so no biggie. I can see this conversation taking place " Ted do you want the VP slot or would you rather have AG so you can reopen all those cases Holder and Lynch shoved in the drawer"

    Seriously the Bush/Rubio ad war here has done nothing except shuffle 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Cruz and Trump will easily have enough delegates between the 2 of them no matter what the establishment does
     
  6. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Someone was talking this morning about Trump sending Cruz to the Supreme Court, and how that would Really cause the Demos to go ballistic.

    AG would be a good one too.
     
  7. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    Cruz has too many enemies to ever make it to the SC but my gawd the havoc he could cause as AG. If I were him I would choose that over VP and let Trump soothe the ruffled feathers of the RNC with Haley as VP. Trump with either Haley or Martinez would be a sure fire ticket and all factions would win. I give Haley a slight edge over Martinez on effectiveness but arguments could be made for either.

    Bush, Rubio and Kasich are just pouring money down a rathole unless the establishment money pulls a Bobby Kennedy on Trump
     
  8. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the Demos wouldn't confirm that nomination. As AG he could really go after them.

    I don't know if Trump would pick Haley. Martinez now that could be feasible. She even use to be a Democrat.

    Neither have FP cred.....tho.
     
  9. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No dude, NH is still open, and it's basically between who wins NH and who wins IA. Remember 2008? Essentially was Huckabee and McCain,who won IA and NH. 12? Santorum and Romney, who won IA and NH respectively. Trump doesn't have a serious ground game - the candidates polling around 10% in NH each have a real shot of winning NH.

    And the polls have been all over the place. The most recent one shows Kasich at 20% in NH and Trunp at 27%. Also shows Paul slowly climbing in recent polls (5&6).

    The point I made and which I think you missed is that it is unlikely at this point that Trump will win one of the first 2. If he wins neither, then he's out. After the NH primary we'll know the two candidates who could win the nomination. At this point, only Cruz or Trump have even a remote shot at getting both - if either does, then they're the nominee. If either gets neither state, they're out.
     
  10. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    that Kasich poll at 20% starts with once upon a time and ends with they lived happily ever after. In other words it is the finest poll the Pacs money could buy. I have been watching poll numbers since Jimmuh cawtuh was running and you don't see 6 points of movement overnight without some major event initiating it. Simple ad buys don't account for it either. Look at the 1/01 - 1-10 ARG poll and compare it to this weeks. ARG gets a C- on accuracy over at 538 for a reason - http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
    Iowa may be a horse race but Trump is up by almost 20 points in NH according to RCP and SC is also a lock for Trump. Game over. After SC it is simply a battle for who's on third after Trump and Cruz
     
  11. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I was going with RCP had to. Trump put more time into NH than he did Iowa.
     
  12. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    to continue on March 1st you have 13 or 14 States holding a primary. There isn't enough money to buy enough ads in all of them to significantly impact the race in anyway.The RNC never planned on seeing a populist candidate being able to hang in there past SC. They figured the Pac backed candidates could duke it out in the first three and let momentum carry them through super Tuesday. The RNC revamped their schedule to prevent wailing and gnashing of teeth at the convention this year. Guess they screwed that one up. To give the devil it's due, MSNBC called it a year ago

    The Southern “Super Tuesday” – nicknamed the “SEC Primary” after the Southeastern Conference in college athletics – would significantly increase the political clout of southern voters, creating a lifeline for the party’s more conservative candidates and a major roadblock for the Republican establishment.

    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/southern-gop-super-tuesday-could-be-2016-game-changer

    That's your poly sci lesson for the day by the guy who does not have a degree in anything except common sense
     
  13. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The thing is that that Kasich poll is no more an anomaly than the one which shows Kasich at 6. We haven't had a primary yet, but every time prior the celebrity candidate - whether its Giuliani, Thompson, whoever - does worse in the actual primaries than the polling indicated prior. That's because polls don't account for get out the vote efforts and the ground game. 2012 was kind of the exception, not having a celebrity candidate w/o a strong ground game, but Romney's numbers in six polls prior to 2008 IA caucus had him hovering around 10%, and he got 25%. Huckabee likewise benefitted from his ground game. my point here is that Trump doesn't have the ground game - he will do worse in primaries than the polls suggest because of that. It's mostly a matter, as far as NH goes, of seeing who will actually have that strong ground game. I'm not aware of any of them having a particularly strong ground game, except for Paul, but Paul's ground game isn't strong enough to make up for his current poll numbers. But Rubio, Cruz, or kasich could win NH.

    http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html

    I think what you're really missing here is how quickly candidates drop off after IA/NH. So let's say Cruz gets IA and Trump gets NH - then what? Well, Kasich etc. will drop off - if they don't choose to, then voters will quickly move away from them. Those first two are huge - Santorum's national numbers tripled after his IA win, before NH. Most voters actually prefer "not Trump" - what makes it weird is the second most common "not" choice is probably Cruz. :/

    I wouldn't call it yet - Trump has plenty of room to screw things up.
     
  14. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    Can you point to one or more specific reasons for Kasich to be moving up, maybe something that shows undecideds moving to his corner. I can't find anything that shows a trend in any other polls other than the ARG which has a poor track record not according to be but according to Nate Silver
     

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