Kherson offensive?

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by zoom_copter66, Aug 29, 2022.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22

    Click here to read the full report.

    Key Takeaways

    • The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast.
    • The Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles but will likely still threaten Ukrainian infrastructure.
    • The Russian military is likely struggling to replenish its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems.
    • The Belarusian prime minister traveled to Iran to discuss economic cooperation and possible security ties.
    • Russian military movements suggest that Russian forces are likely reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts.
    • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
    • Crimean occupation officials demonstrated heightened unease—likely over Ukrainian strikes on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the peninsula and ongoing military operations on the Kinburn Spit.
    • The Kremlin continues to deflect concerns about mobilization onto the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
    • Russian sources continue to tout the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. . . .
    The Russian Armed Forces are continuing to suffer losses among personnel due to poor training, lack of equipment, and diminishing morale. A Russian investigative outlet, 7x7 – Horizontal Russia, reported that at least 39 mobilized Russian men have died before reaching the frontlines due to health problems and suicide.[76] Other opposition outlets, citing Primorsky Krai mobilized men, stated that only 19 men out of 120 belonging to the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade survived the battle for Pavlivka.[77] The Guardian reported that Kherson City locals also noted that Russian forces constantly burned dead Russian servicemen at a landfill, which has likely had negative impacts on Russian morale.[78] Mobilized servicemen continued to show poor discipline as video footage from Yurga, Kemerovo Oblast showed mobilized men fighting with locals at a cafe.[79] . . .
     
  2. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    https://www.guardian.com/world/2022/nov/21/russians-accused-of-burning-bodies-at-kherson-landfill

    Basically savages.....
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2022
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  3. Observing

    Observing Well-Known Member

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    Well Ukraine had to defeat them around Kiev before going on the offensive near the border. The offensive in the east has been a great success, they are bleeding the russians dry. Once this winter is over the offensive will start again, until then it is a war of attrition, with the ukraine having the advantage in tactics and ground weapons. IMO by this time next year Ukraine will be in NATO and Putin would have lost 100,000 soldiers and the respect of the russian fighting forces.
     
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  4. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates

    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23

    Click here to read the full report.

    Key Takeaways

    • The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
    • Russian politicians continue to promote openly genocidal rhetoric against Ukraine.
    • The Kremlin continues to pursue its maximalist goals and is likely issuing vague statements about its intent to mislead Western Countries into pressuring Ukraine into negotiations.
    • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the directions of Kreminna and Svatove.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
    • Russian forces continued defensive operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
    • The Kremlin is continuing crypto-mobilization efforts at the expense of other Russian security services.
    • Russian forces and occupation officials continued to forcibly relocate residents and confiscate their property. . . .
    The Russian military conducted another set of massive, coordinated missile strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in a misguided attempt to degrade the Ukrainian will to fight. Ukrainian Air Force Command reported on November 23 that Russian forces launched 70 cruise missiles and five drones at Ukrainian critical infrastructure targets.[1] Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 51 of the Russian cruise missiles and all five drones.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces struck residential buildings, thermal power plants, and substations in the city of Kyiv as well as in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[3] Ukrainian, Russian, and social media sources claimed that Russian forces also struck targets in Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv oblasts.[4] Ukrainian officials reported widespread disruptions to energy, heating, and water supplies as a result of the Russian strikes.[5] ISW has previously assessed that the Russian military is still able to attack Ukrainian critical infrastructure at scale in the near term despite continuing to deplete its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems.[6] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the Russian military mistakenly believes that the destruction of energy infrastructure will direct Ukrainian efforts to protect rear areas and divert Ukrainian attention away from the front in eastern and southern Ukraine.[7] Malyar stated that Russia’s campaign against critical infrastructure will not weaken the motivation of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov asserted that Russian missile and drone strikes will not coerce Ukraine into negotiations.[8] . . . .

    Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military concentrations and logistics in Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 23 that Ukrainian forces struck several Russian manpower and equipment concentrations and destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Luhansk Oblast in the previous days.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces killed about 50 Russian military personnel and wounded up to 50 others in the strikes.[32] . . . .

    Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian concentration areas in Zaporizhia Oblast on November 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a Ukrainian strike destroyed a Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile system near Orikhiv, a checkpoint near Vesele, and a personnel concentration in Melitopol between November 21 and 23.[53] Russian milbloggers continued to warn about the potential of an imminent Ukrainian offensive on the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline.[54] . . .
     
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  5. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    Satellite data indicates a large logistics operation by Ukrainian forces to an unexpected location. Captured Russian equipment is being hastily vultured, repaired and transported out of Kherson, along with munitions cataloging and distribution. It appears the sheer amount of munitions and equipment may take time to reposition. Winter gear, food, supplies and additional ammunition from NATO is streaming in from Western Ukraine. Meanwhile conditions appear to be deteriorating south of Kherson, with the Russians forces hastily building a secondary defensive position along the road from the Eastern bank near Kherson City east towards Melitopol. Russian forces appear to be succeeding in building a hard defensive line, though this area of the battlefield isn't well suited for either offensive or defensive operations. So far, their construction of an expected tertiary line of defense at the approaches to Crimea appear to be at a slower pace. Harassment of supply routes into the region continues. Intelligence indicates clues conditions are tough for the Russian forces in southern Kherson, in spite of the delays the Ukrainians are utilizing to fully reposition for what looks to be a major spearhead into another area of the front. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Russia continue to exchange harassing fire all along the front. Indications are the Russians are at least able to coordinate construction of defensive positions along the Kherson line effectively at a fairly rapid pace in spite of the supply hardships. The lull while Ukraine repositions for a different assault is likely welcomed by the Russian troops in Southern Kherson, though the continuous low-level artillery strikes may serve to keep them on constant alert and less than encouraged. It may be the Ukrainians are content to let the Southern forces wither on the vine through a long winter, choosing to bolster their forces elsewhere. In the East neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians have been able to mount a decisive advance. Russian supplies along the Eastern front are more adequate, though troop morale continues to wane. The inability to completely control the supply routes from interdiction have resulted in supply build-ups in the East. The log-jam in supplies, while unwelcome in the South, may prove vital in the coming weeks if they can be rapidly deployed where needed.
     
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  6. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    Russia has already lost nearly 100,000 soldiers over the previous 9 months. US estimates are 80k-100k. Losses over the last couple of weeks indicate and increase in casualties to between 400-500/day. In 12 months, I suspect it will be near 200,000 if everything remains consistent. And I'm pretty sure these numbers are better than even Putin is made aware. It isn't uncommon for Russia military elite to fudge the numbers reported even to the head dictator.
     
  7. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    You got to wonder at what will happen to these guys...there's a shed load of Mobliks coming in from the prison system and with TB rife amongst them...yuk...makes me laugh when you hear all this witting from the Russians of bio-labs in Ukraine when their own troops are walking Bio-hazards...anyway who cares.

    Many recent vids are showing Russian troops with far less kit and equipment than back in February so the world might witness this ‘recipe’ for disaster for Russians in the coming winter.
    Cold weather, and not enough cold weather kit. Strangled logistics issues not being solved meaning maybe not enough food, or not enough fuel to keep troops or vehicles warm. Troops lacking in rest or proper sleep due to being increasingly within Uke Artillery reach 24/7.

    Ah well...I'm not gunna lose any sleep over those cold, wet, tired and hungry Russian troops....
    cue comment from Battery S'arnt Major Williams....
    upload_2022-11-24_11-54-7.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2022
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  8. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    makes you wonder exactly how much information is filtered out before it gets to him....there are probably a lot of staffers desperately guarding their career paths and pensions .... not to mention their lives.


    yeah....the Ukes have proven themselves to be bloody good at MacGyvering banjaxed kit back to life
     
  9. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/... 10,000 artillery rounds,on a visit to Norway.
     
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  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    [​IMG]
    World
    The Daily Beast
    Russia Risks Knockout Blow in War as Putin Hits Rock Bottom


    SOUTHERN ENGLAND—After a string of Russian defeats in the war, U.K. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is urging Ukraine to “keep up the pressure, keep up the momentum” and continue their rapid-fire attacks on Vladimir Putin’s forces through the winter months.

    “Given the advantage the Ukrainians have in equipment training and quality of their personnel against the demoralized, poorly trained, poorly equipped Russians, it would be in the Ukraine’s interest to maintain momentum through the winter,” Wallace said. “They have 300,000 pieces of arctic warfare kit, from the international community”—a crucial requirement for any winter offensive. . . .
     
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  11. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Indeed the Counter offensive had some good success but then it stalled .. Russia now dug into a much better defended position .. and at this time has only one front to worry about.

    As you suggest - not much will happen over the winter. By the time winter is over we will likely have a negotiated settlement .. Russia maintaining the area along the black Sea ... Ukraine maintaining Odesa and a Black Sea Corridor to the River.

    The dream of Ukraine being in NATO by end of 2023 a wet one :) which even if true .. will be a Ukraine without most of the land currently occupied by Vlad.
     
  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine's winter offensive is in the offing.
     
  13. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You should try those fantasies on someone who doesn't know you .. on folks who have no knowledge of the conflict - not having much success in these parts :)
     
  14. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    3 Hours Ago
    Kremlin says Kyiv can end ‘people’s suffering’ by meeting its demands

    As millions of Ukrainians struggle with power, heat and water shortages as a result of Russian missile strikes, the Kremlin has said that Kyiv can end “people’s suffering” by meeting its demands.

    “The leadership of Ukraine has every opportunity to bring the situation back to normal, has every opportunity to resolve the situation in such a way as to fulfill the requirements of the Russian side and, accordingly, stop all possible suffering of the civilian population,” Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, told reporters Thursday, Russian state news agency Tass reported.

    Live updates: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/24/live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

    How appalling is this? RuZZia is acting like every movie villain ever.

    You can end the suffering I am causing you. Just do as I say!
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2022
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  15. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    An d those demands are what?......stop liberating annexed territories.....it's making us look like chumps?:roflol:
     
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  16. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    very good interview with Gen. Ben Hodges....

     
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  17. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    upload_2022-11-25_11-6-13.png AP News
    After Russian retreat, Ukrainian military plans next move
     
  18. zoom_copter66

    zoom_copter66 Well-Known Member

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    If/when Krym gets liberated....Dwarfstan will meet his horrible end....and Rasfascista as we know it will dissolve further.
     
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  19. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    Indeed. Reminds me of some stuff read from the national archives. During WWII as the Red Ball Express was rapidly supplying our forces in Western Europe, fast on the heels of the German retreat, several of the supply trucks took a wrong turn due to dense fog and actually ended up behind the German retreat. German supplies were severely depleted. Most of the troops had only eaten boiled grass seed for the past week, were down to just a few rounds of ammunition each, hadn't received winter clothing as winter was fast approaching, and were on foot having abandoned their vehicles due to lack of fuel. They were mobile infantry without mobility.

    When the Germans stumbled upon this small group of US supply trucks who hastily surrendered, they were quite excited to examine the contents to see what they might find to replenish their war fighting stocks. As the German colonel and his men anxiously opened the crates in the supply trucks, they stood there dumbfounded. Gazing out over the loot in astonishment, the colonel (fluent in English) pulled off one of the messages attached to the crates and read it. His men asked him what it meant in German. He replied, "wir haben den Krieg verloren" (tr) - "We have lost the war". Sitting before them were crate after crate of apple, pumpkin, blueberry, cherry and other assorted pies with the message reading, "Courtesy of the local Women's Club... Springfield, Missouri".
     
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  20. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Analysis: Russia using 'human wave' troops in Donbas
     
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  21. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Like the Iranians vs Iraq.
     
  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25

    Click here to read the full report.

    Key Takeaways

    • Reports of a group of understaffed and ill-supplied mobilized personnel are dividing the Russian information space.
    • President Vladimir Putin falsely presented a meeting with hand-picked women as an open discussion with mothers of mobilized personnel.
    • An investigation by Forbes’ Ukrainian service revealed that the war in Ukraine has had a serious financial impact on the Russian Federation’s annual budget.
    • The Russian MoD may have increased the frequency of POW exchanges to soothe discontent in the Russian information space.
    • A Ukrainian official confirmed that Ukrainian forces killed Iranian military advisors in Russian-occupied Crimea and threatened to target Iranian military presence on Ukrainian territory.
    • Russian military leadership may be circulating a document stating that Russia needs to mobilize five million personnel to win the war in Ukraine, which Russia cannot do.
    • Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks to regain lost positions northwest of Svatove and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations toward Kreminna.
    • Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, and influential Russian figures may be setting informational conditions to deflect blame for a lack of progress in the Bakhmut area.
    • Russian forces continued to establish defenses south of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and around critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting Crimea to southern Kherson Oblast.
    • Russian sources and officials continue attempts to shape the narrative around a likely second partial mobilization while denying the potential for general mobilization.
    • Russian officials are continuing efforts to stimulate demographic change in occupied areas of Ukraine by deporting Ukrainian residents and replacing them with imported Russian citizens. . . .
    Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian force concentrations and military assets on the west (left) bank of the Dnipro River and in rear areas in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian forces along the east bank of the Dnipro River near Nova Kakhovka, Kakhovka, and Liubimivka, and in the Russian rear in Chaplynka and Skadovsk.[63] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration in Zeleny Yar, Zaporizhia Oblast on November 23, destroying two trucks, wounding 12 personnel, and killing 20 personnel.[64] . . . .

    Russian mobilized forces continue to demonstrate ineptitude and extreme disorder. A Russian source stated on November 23 that mobilized soldiers at a training ground in the center of Fedoseevka, Belgorod Oblast accidentally shot a seven-year-old boy walking home from school.[88] This likely represents Russian failure both in locating a training ground in an urban center and in shooting wildly outside of expected paths and directions. A Russian source reported on November 24 that a recently-mobilized intelligence sergeant accidentally shot and killed a fellow soldier in Tolpino, Kursk Oblast.[89] A Russian source claimed on November 24 that a Russian private stabbed a junior commissioned officer four times during a quarrel over an unspecified topic.[90] A Russian source reported on November 24 that a mobilized soldier from Transbaikalia died from a head injury under mysterious circumstances, and unidentified actors continued to purchase alcohol on his card.[91] . . .

    Russian morale remains extremely low. A Russian opposition outlet claimed that 250 Russian soldiers in Zaitseve have refused to fight on the front lines and now hide in basements.[99] Russian officers reportedly entered the basements on November 21 and forced out 100 soldiers at gunpoint.[100] . . .
     
  23. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates

    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26

    Click here to read the full report.

    Key Takeaways

    • The overall pace of operations in Ukraine is likely to increase in the upcoming weeks as the ground freezes throughout the theater.
    • Russian officials are continuing efforts to deport Ukrainian children to Russia.
    • Russian officials may be trying to counteract Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s growing influence through the promotion of other parallel Russian military structures.
    • Russian forces are likely using inert Kh-55 missiles designed solely to carry nuclear warheads in its campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting the Russian military’s depletion of high-precision weapons.
    • Russian forces continued defensive operations against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
    • Russian forces continued establishing fortifications in eastern Kherson Oblast.
    • Russian tactical, logistical, and equipment failures continue to decrease morale of Russian troops and drive searches for scapegoats. . . . .
    Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian force concentrations and military assets in Russian rear areas in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, injuring 50 Russian military personnel, and two warehouses in Vasylivskyi Raion, injuring 130 personnel and destroying seven pieces of equipment.[35] The Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition depot in Mykhailivka on the northern outskirts of Melitopol on November 25.[36] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Chaplynka (40km south of Nova Kakhovka on the T2202 Nova Kakhovka-Armiansk route) and Skadovsk (R57-T2213 intersection on the Kherson City-Skadovsk route) in Kherson Oblast.[37] . . . .

    Russian forces are likely using inert Kh-55 cruise missiles in their massive missile strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, further highlighting the depletion of the Russian military’s high precision weapons arsenal. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on November 26 that Russia is likely removing nuclear warheads from ageing Kh-55 missiles and launching the missiles without warheads at targets in Ukraine.[13] The UK MoD suggested that Russian forces are likely launching the inert missiles as decoys to divert Ukrainian air defenses.[14] Ukrainian officials have previously reported that Russian forces have extensively used the non-nuclear variant of the missile system, the Kh-555, to conduct strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure since mid-October.[15] The Russian military’s likely use of a more strategic weapon system in the role of a decoy for Ukrainian air defenses corroborates ISW’s previous reporting that the Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles.[16] The use of more strategic weapons systems in support of the campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure suggests that the Russian military is heavily committed to the strike campaign and still mistakenly believes that it can generate strategically significant effects through that campaign. . . .
     
  24. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I understood your statement, which was factually incorrect.
     
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  25. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    OK that's a prediction worth keeping for next year.
     

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