Kherson offensive?

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by zoom_copter66, Aug 29, 2022.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You lost.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates

    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27

    Click here to read the full report.

    ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, November 27. This report evaluates the defensive positions Russian forces are establishing in eastern Kherson Oblast and what those positions suggest about Russian expectations for future operations in this area.

    The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City.[1] Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the Russians prioritizing defensive positions to stop such a crossing. The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The assessment that follows examines the Russian defensive laydown and evaluates the expectations for the flow of operations likely guiding that laydown exclusively. This assessment makes no effort to determine whether Ukrainian forces intend to cross or are capable of crossing the Dnipro River in this region and offers no forecast about whether or not they will make any such attempt. . . .


    Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 27:

    • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian officials are preparing for another wave of covert mobilization starting on December 10 in the Russian Federation and in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.[13]
    • Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian Federal Customs Service for customs delays and exclusions of dual-use goods that volunteer movements have been sending to the Russian military.[14]
    • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian forces along the Svatove-Kreminna line are conducting defensive operations around Kupyansk and offensive operations west of Kreminna.[15]
    • Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations toward Svatove and Kreminna.[16]
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations around Avdiivka.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff did not report that Ukrainian forces repelled any ground attacks around Bakhmut on November 27, suggesting that Russian forces may have advanced in the area.[18]
    • Russian forces conducted strikes against Dnipro City, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia City.[19]
    • Russian occupation officials continued to forcibly transfer Ukrainian children from occupied territories in Luhansk Oblast to Russia under the guise that the children require special medical care.[20]
     
  3. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28

    Click here to read the full report.

    Key Takeaways

    • The Russian-claimed capture of several small villages around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 does not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.
    • Recent Russian force deployments to Belarus in November 2022 are likely part of a Russian effort to augment Russian training capacity and conduct an information operation.
    • Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) decision to place severe customs limits on the import of dual-use goods, indicating a continued and pervasive discontent with the Russian MoD’s conduct of the war in Ukraine.
    • Russian forces are likely preparing to launch a new wave of missile strikes across Ukraine in the coming week, but such preparations are likely intended to sustain the recent pace of strikes rather than increase it.
    • Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations around Svatove as Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive west of Kreminna.
    • Russian forces made incremental gains south of Bakhmut.
    • Russian forces continued to strengthen fortified positions and establish security measures in eastern Kherson Oblast.
    • Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and along critical logistics lines in southern Ukraine.
    • Russian forces continue to face issues with adequate training and equipment and challenges with morale and discipline as Russian military failures have significant domestic social impacts.
    • Russian occupation authorities continued efforts to facilitate the integration of educational systems in occupied Ukraine into the Russian system. . . .
    Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and critical logistics lines in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian strikes against Russian force concentrations in Melitopol, Polohy, and Mykhailivka (just north of Melitopol), Zaporizhia Oblast on November 25 wounded over 100 military personnel and destroyed 10 pieces of military equipment and two ammunition depots.[42] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on November 28 that strikes against Russian forces in Polohy and Chernihivka (south of Polohy), Zaporizhia Oblast injured 80 military personnel.[43] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces shelled along Russian logistics lines in Kherson Oblast on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River, including Velyki Kopani (on the R57 Kherson City-Nova Kakhovka highway), Hola Prystan (just south of Kherson City), and Radensk (both on the E97 Radensk-Armiansk highway) on November 27 and 28.[44] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 28 that Ukrainian strikes damaged 30 pieces of Russian military equipment in Hola Prystan.[45] Ukrainian Odesa Oblast Military Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Brachuk stated that Ukrainian strikes destroyed Russian military warehouses and a command post in unspecified areas in Skadovsk and Kherson raions.[46] . . . .
     
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  4. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Nope.
     
  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    You lost.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29

    Click here to read the full report.

    Key Takeaways

    • Russian forces made marginal gains around Bakhmut on November 29, but Russian forces remain unlikely to have advanced at the tempo that Russian sources claimed.
    • The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian forces have likely stopped deploying battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the past three months, supporting ISW’s prior assessments.
    • Russian forces continued to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations around Svatove as Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations around Svatove and Kreminna.
    • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks west of Kreminna to regain lost positions.
    • Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Siversk and Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
    • Russian forces continued strengthening defensive positions in eastern Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian force concentrations in southern Ukraine.
    • Russian forces continued to struggle with outdated equipment and domestic personnel shortages amid official actions indicative of a probable second wave of mobilization.
    • An independent investigation found that Russia may have transported thousands of Ukrainian prisoners from penal colonies in occupied Ukraine to Russia following the withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast. . . . .
    Ukraine continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna on November 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian concentration area in Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, which Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai claimed was a deployment point and ammunition depot.[12] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a massive shelling of Svatove and unsuccessfully attempted to break through Russian defensive lines to the Svatove-Kreminna highway.[13] Miroshnik additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to probe Russian defenses in Kuzemivka, 13km northwest of Svatove.[14] Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attacks in this area.[15] A Russian source claimed that Ukraine is accumulating forces in Kharkiv Oblast to possibly resume an offensive against Svatove and Starobilsk.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), while Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized Novoselivske.[17] A Russian source stated that Russian forces began offensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line and conjectured that operations will intensify in the coming days as the weather improves.[18] Ukrainian troops additionally continue to target Russian rear areas in Luhansk Oblast along critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and hit a concentration area in Luhutyne, just southwest of Luhansk City along the H21.[19]. . . .

    Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian force concentrations and military assets in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Ukrainian strikes on November 27 against four areas of Russian force concentrations, including Polohy, Tokmak, and Basan, Zaporizhia Oblast (all along the T0401 highway), inflicting losses of 470 personnel, 50 pieces of military equipment, and unspecified amounts of ammunition.[46] Ukrainian sources reported explosions in Skadovsk, Henichesk, and Novooleksiivka, Kherson Oblast on November 29, possibly from Ukrainian strikes.[47] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses intercepted two Ukrainian Uragan MLRS rockets near Nova Kakhovka.[48] . . . .
     
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  7. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    If only you could demonstrate it...LOL!
     
  8. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Already done, in depth, your denial notwithstanding.
    You lost.

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30

    Click here to read the full report.
    Key Takeaways

    • The Russian military’s efforts around Bakhmut suggest that Russian forces failed to learn from previous costly campaigns focused on operationally insignificant settlements.
    • Russian state nuclear company Rosenergoatom appointed a new director for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
    • The Kremlin continues efforts to stifle domestic dissent through an expansion of measures ostensibly aimed against “foreign agents.”
    • Russian opinion polling suggests that the Russian public may be growing tired of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
    • Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
    • Russia forces continued to make incremental gains around Bakhmut and to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.
    • A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operation on the Kinburn Spit.
    • Russian and Ukrainian sources indicated that Russian officials are continuing to conduct partial mobilization measures.
    • Russian officials’ ongoing efforts to integrate illegally annexed territories into the Russian Federation are likely very disorganized. . . .
    Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Polohy and Tokmak in Zaporizhia Oblast on November 28 and 29, wounding about 100 Russian military personnel.[42] Geolocated footage posted on November 30 shows the aftermath of HIMARS strikes on buildings in Polohy.[43] Other geolocated footage posted on November 30 shows the aftermath of purported Ukrainian strikes in Myrne, Zaporizhia Oblast.[44] The Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported on November 30 that residents heard explosions in locations where Russian mobilized personnel recently settled.[45] Russian sources also continued to express concern about unverified Ukrainian assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast on November 30. Zaporizhia occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to break through Russian defensive positions near Orikhiv in Zaporizhia Oblast.[46] ISW cannot verify the report about the Ukrainian assault and makes no assessments about future Ukrainian operations.

    A Ukrainian official acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations on the Kinburn Spit on November 30. Mykolaiv Oblast Head Vitaly Kim announced on November 30 that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operation on the Kinburn Spit under informational silence conditions.[47] Kim also stated that Russian forces forcibly removed residents from the Kinburn Spit on November 28.[48] ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian forces would be better equipped to conduct potential operations on the east bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast from locations on the Kinburn Spit.[49] . . . .
     
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  10. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Bakhmut suggests to me that the ruscists are hoping to win by attrition. Lord knows they have no other path to victory.
     
  11. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    Russian casualties now exceed 100,000 dead by US estimates which are the most reliable available. These estimates are conservative as they only include verifiable casualties. Actual numbers could be as high as 125,000 or more.
     
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  12. ricmortis

    ricmortis Well-Known Member

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    This would explain the need for 300k conscripts being Russia initially invaded Ukraine with 100k soldiers.
     
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  13. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Dec 1, 2022
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  14. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

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    CNN and Sky News banned from ukraine for showing ukrainian soldiers and kids hailing cabs in Kherson :roflol:

     
  15. vis

    vis Banned

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    Looking from the side it seems that you lost.
     
  16. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Putin still aspires to win but knows he can’t


    Misha lost.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Nemesis

    Nemesis Well-Known Member

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    Misha is wrong and his heroes are losing.
     
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  18. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Putin’s invasion will crumble if Nato continues support | General Sir Richard Shirreff
     
  19. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    We can always count on the Moscow shills to support each other.
     
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  20. LibDave

    LibDave Newly Registered

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    What complete bunk. Those aren't NAZI symbols and that isn't a NAZI salute. And that isn't why CNN was booted out. They were booted out for not abiding by the 7 day wait agreement. Video images contain information in the file which identifies time and location. This is information which is useful to the enemy and places their forces in danger, since knowing where and when your forces are is half the battle for the enemy. All kinds of journalists are embedded with Ukrainian forces and film virtually everything as it unfolds. They agree not to publish certain images for up to 7 days. CNN was the only one who got booted because they were the only ones who couldn't be trusted to honor the agreement and put Ukrainian forces in jeopardy. So now they must wait 7 days to ensure they don't repeat their stupidity.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2022
  21. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Ukraine Conflict Updates

    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1

    Click here to read the full report.

    Key Takeaways

    • Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against Ukraine.
    • Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
    • Russian forces continued to make incremental gains around Bakhmut and to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.
    • Russian forces continued to conduct defensive measures and move personnel on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
    • Russian military movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes.
    • Russian forces are holding reserves in Crimea to support defensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
    • The Kremlin’s financial strain continues to feed domestic unrest.
    • Evidence persists regarding the continuation of partial mobilization in the face of low morale and high desertion rates amongst Russian troops.
    • Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continued attempts to bolster the Wagner Group’s reputation.
    • Russian occupation officials continued efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian financial and legal spheres.
    • Russian forces continued to exploit Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure in support of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. . . .
    Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on December 1. The Russian BARS-13 combat reserve Telegram channel claimed that Ukrainian forces have increased ground assaults around the Kreminna area.[12] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack around Kreminna in the direction of Chervonopopivka (6km northwest of Kreminna).[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault near Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).[14] One Russian source reported that Ukrainian forces made significant advances southwest of Chervonopopivka and expressed concern over the possibility that Ukrainian forces may reinforce their lines in the area in order to push through Russian defenses there.[15] Another Russian source claimed that a Russian drone had detected Ukrainian forces in Zhytlivka on the R66 highway to Kreminna.[16] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces are fighting in the western part of Bilohorivka, but did not provide evidence for this claim.[17] Hromov added that Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian assaults on Dibrova, approximately 5km southwest of Kreminna.[18] Russian and Ukrainian forces continued artillery fire in this area.[19] . . . .

    Ukrainian officials continued to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces are conducting operations on the Kinburn Spit on December 1. Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to conduct operations on the Kinburn Spit and that Ukrainian forces have not yet liberated the area.[46] ISW has previously assessed that Ukrainian forces would be better able to conduct potential operations on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast from the Kinburn Spit.[47] . . .
     
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  22. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

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    Those weren't nazi salutes? So they were all hailing cabs? :laughing:

    They were booted because they aired some things that weren't censored. The nazis know they have a week to commit their atrocities before the press is allowed in. That's the facts.
     
  23. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    One day, when Putler is in his bunker, desperately issuing orders and dreaming feverishly of turning the tide and winning in the end, he will say, "Everything will be all right when Lukashenko joins the invasion."
     
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  24. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Just another falsehood in your series.
     
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  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Wo ist Steiner?!?
     
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