LA Times Admits Australian-Style Gun Control Would Do Nothing

Discussion in 'Gun Control' started by rover77, Sep 27, 2018.

  1. rover77

    rover77 Well-Known Member

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    'Ever since Las Vegas, we’ve had anti-gunners prattling on about how we need gun control because of rare instances like mass shootings. When they’re not throwing up Europe up as the perfect example of Utopia, they’re telling us to adopt Australian-style gun control.

    However, Karen Kaplan, the science and medicine editor for the L.A. Times wrote a story that argues such gun control would have little to no impact on violence here in the United States.'

    Shocker.


    Source: https://bearingarms.com/tom-k/2018/09/27/la-times-admits-australian-style-gun-control-nothing/
     
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  2. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    For those that refuse to click on the initial link.

    http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-australia-gun-law-deaths-20180926-story.html

    On a spring day in the Tasmanian town of Port Arthur, a lone gunman shot an elderly couple at the inn they owned, 22 diners lunching at a nearby tourist spot, two tour bus drivers and several of their passengers, four occupants of a BMW, and two customers at a gas station.


    By the time the bullets stopped flying on April 28, 1996, 35 people were dead and another 23 were wounded. It was the worst mass shooting Australia had ever seen.


    In a matter of months, Australia rolled out the National Firearms Agreement, which banned the possession of automatic and semiautomatic firearms in all but “exceptional circumstances.” About 640,000 guns were surrendered through a gun buyback program and another 60,000 were turned in to authorities for free in 1996 and 1997.


    Australia has not seen a shooting like the Port Arthur massacre since, and the National Firearms Agreement is widely credited for this success. Gun control advocates in the United States — including former President Obama — have spoken admiringly of the law and suggest it should be a model for reducing gun deaths here.


    That wouldn’t do any good, according to the authors of a new study.


    Mass shootings get the most attention, but they account for a tiny fraction of total gun deaths in the U.S., data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. Among the nation’s 36,252 firearms-related fatalities in 2015, 61% were suicides and most of the rest were ordinary homicides.


    Neither of those kinds of deaths actually fell in Australia as a result of the National Firearms Agreement, researchers reported Tuesday in the American Journal of Public Health.


    “Many claims have been made about the NFA’s far-reaching effects and its potential benefits if implemented in the United States,” wrote Stuart Gilmour, a statistician at St. Luke’s International University in Tokyo, and his coauthors from the University of Tokyo. “However, more detailed analysis of the law shows that it likely had a negligible effect on firearm suicides and homicides in Australia and may not have as large an effect in the United States as some gun control advocates expect.”


    Previous studies have said otherwise. A 2010 report in the American Law and Economics Review concluded that “the buyback led to a drop in the firearm suicide rates of almost 80%” and had a similar effect on gun-related homicides. But that study ignored the fact that gun deaths were already falling when the program went into effect.


    A 2016 study in the Journal of the American Medical Assn. acknowledged that a decline in gun-related suicides and homicides was indeed underway but said these mortality rates dropped more sharply in the aftermath of the NFA. However, the JAMA study failed to consider deaths that had nothing to do with guns. That means they might have given the gun control law credit for something that would have happened anyway.


    Gilmour and his coauthors attempted to solve these problems by using a statistical method known as “difference-in-difference.” This approach turns real-life events into scientific experiments in which one group is subjected to an intervention and another group serves as a control.


    In this case, the intervention was the National Firearms Agreement. It could have affected Australians who were inclined to use a gun to commit a suicide or homicide. But Gilmour’s team assumed it would have no effect on suicides and homicides that did not involve a gun. This was their control group.


    Their difference-in-difference analysis revealed that although the rate of gun-related suicides fell steadily after the NFA went into effect in 1997, that decline was part of a larger trend that began in the late 1980s — and wasn’t altered by the new law.


    Likewise, homicides in Australia were already dropping when the National Firearms Agreement went into effect. The rate of gun-related homicides fell in the wake of the NFA, but the law had no effect “over and above a broad decline” in homicides involving all kinds of weapons, the study authors wrote.


    To test the strength of their results, the researchers repeated their analysis using 1998 (not 1997) as the first year of the NFA era. They also tried using earlier start dates for their pre-NFA period, in case their initial choice happened to skew the results. The findings were “mostly unaffected” by these changes.


    It’s not that the National Firearms Agreement was a bad idea. It’s that other things going on in Australia must have made a bigger difference — one that swamped any help the NFA might have offered.


    The researchers can’t say for sure what those other things were, but they have some ideas. They noted that Australia implemented a nationwide youth suicide prevention program in 1995 and one for adults in 2001. Either or both programs could have helped reduce suicides, including suicides carried out with a gun.


    In addition, the Australian Institute of Criminology developed gun control policies that were adopted in 1991 — five years before the NFA.


    “It is likely that these more comprehensive and detailed 1991 changes played a greater role in reducing firearms-related suicide and homicide than did the NFA, which was implemented solely for the purpose of eliminating mass shootings,” Gilmour and his colleagues wrote.


    If that is indeed the case, trying to pass an American version of the National Firearms Agreement could be counterproductive, they added.


    “It is imperative that this political moment … not be squandered on a law that will have limited impact,” they wrote. “To achieve real, sustained reductions in the majority of causes of firearm-related mortality, the United States needs a broader, more comprehensive range of gun control measures than those in the NFA.”
     
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  3. Diuretic

    Diuretic Well-Known Member

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    I'll save you the work of suggesting the sort of firearms control laws we have in Australia would not work in the States.
    I agree, they wouldn't.

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. dave8383

    dave8383 Banned at Members Request Past Donor

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    We should try it and find out.
     
  5. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    One is able to determine for themselves that fire is quite hot by sticking their hand into an open flame. But such is hardly the smartest approach available.
     
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  6. dave8383

    dave8383 Banned at Members Request Past Donor

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    No, lets try some Aussie laws just for fun.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2018
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  7. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    I agree. It is time for the real world experiment. The NRA would flip if thousands of lives were saved
     
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  8. dave8383

    dave8383 Banned at Members Request Past Donor

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    Sure, America is the grand experiment, lets experiment.
     
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  9. An Taibhse

    An Taibhse Well-Known Member

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    Let's outlaw the Dem Party as a real world experiment; betting it would save a huge number of lives.
     
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  10. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    You prefer a one party system? Hmmmmm. Are we at Godwin already? Lol
     
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  11. An Taibhse

    An Taibhse Well-Known Member

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    It's no different than the absurd suggestion for a real world experiment that was proposed above and an appropriately absurd suggestion in response to inanity.
     
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  12. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    Hmmmm. Yes gun control is the same as a dictatorship. That was funny. Lol
     
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  13. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    Why do you want to ignore the Constitution?
     
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  14. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    Gun control is constitutional
     
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  15. BULGARICA

    BULGARICA Banned

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    If someone gave me $1 dollar everytime someone admitted something and nothing changed after that, I would've had Trump's fortune by now.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. dave8383

    dave8383 Banned at Members Request Past Donor

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    Why are you so boring?
     
  17. dave8383

    dave8383 Banned at Members Request Past Donor

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    We could try:

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. An Taibhse

    An Taibhse Well-Known Member

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    Coerced confiscation by armed domicile searches is not.
     
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  19. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    Thank you mr supreme court justice. Lol
     
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  20. An Taibhse

    An Taibhse Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't require a SCOTUS ruling to interpret the 4th.
     
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  21. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    Actually it does. In fact that is their job. Lol
     
  22. An Taibhse

    An Taibhse Well-Known Member

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    Uh huh, we will see how far your fantasy progresses.
     
  23. Vegas giants

    Vegas giants Banned

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    Okey dokey. Lol
     
  24. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    This is an update from my previously updated post from January 2017, found below, to include the entirety of 2018 up to 9-18-2018
    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-weapons-and-mass-shootings-un-the-us.522928/
    Current link:
    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-weapons-and-mass-shootings-un-the-us.541933/

    -According to Mother Jones (link below), from 1982 to 9-18-2018, 'assault weapons' accounted for 383 mass shooting deaths; handguns accounted for 404 such deaths.
    This works out to 10.16 and 10.72 deaths per year, respectively.

    -The 383 total deaths by 'assault weapons' in mass shootings 1982-present represents 45.50% of total deaths in mass shootings; handguns represent 48.03%

    -10.16 deaths/year in mass shootings with ‘assault weapons’ represents 0.06666% of all murders
    -10.16 deaths /year in mass shootings with ‘assault weapons’ represents 0.09574% of all firearm-related murders

    And so, with tens of millions of 'assault weapons' in the US, slightly over 10 people per year are murdered with an ‘assault weapon’; these murders represent <0.1% of all firearm related murders.

    In addition:
    -1982-present, there were 16 mass school shootings of all kinds, resulting in 162 deaths for an average of 4.30 deaths per year.
    -77 of these deaths, 47.53%, involved the use of an ‘assault weapon’, for an average of 2.04 deaths per year.

    Thus, further proof there is no sound argument, practically or constitutionally, for banning 'assault weapons'.

    Source:
    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/
    In compiling this information from the MJ spreadsheet, I was as inclusive as I could be - for instance, some events involved the use of a Mini-14/30 and M1 carbine which are not necessarily 'assault weapons' while others included the TEC-9 and MAC-11, which are oversized handguns rather than rifles. I included them in the total.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2018
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  25. ECA

    ECA Well-Known Member

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    Of course it wouldn't given the hundreds of millions guns in circulation. Any type of ban wouldn't just magically make all those guns disappear. Talk about Captain Obvious.
     

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