Latest Rasmussen Polling updates

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by pol meister, Oct 26, 2020.

  1. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The Trump campaign has an outreach to both Latinos and Blacks.

    In 2016, only 2 out of 3 blacks of voting age were registered to vote.

    2016 Voting age black population: 28.8 million
    2016 Registered black voters: 20 million
    2016 black voters (turned out to vote): 17.1 million (88% Hillary, 8% Trump)

    Lots of opportunity in the black demographic for either campaign. Black Lives Matter, a Democrat Party fundraising tool, has put blacks under a microscope this year. Not all blacks feel like BLM is representing them or speaking for them.

    I think we can all predict that black voter registrations and turnout will be much higher this year. The "split" between Trump and Biden is anyone's guess. Rasmussen is "guessing" 30% for Trump, based on their polling.

    Speculation is that black women and older black men will remain loyal to Biden. It is younger black men and new voters that have Democrats nervous.

    It will be interesting to see how it turns out.
     
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  2. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    if Rasmussen is actually predicting 30% of black vote goes for Trump, then they have lost any and all value as a polling institution.
     
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  3. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, I'm sure that a national polling company wants to be completely wrong and have egg all over their face once the numbers come in. :)

    Rasmussen's National Daily Black Likely Voter polls for "Voting for Trump" and for "Trump Job Approval".


    upload_2020-10-29_18-45-22.png


    Don't shoot the messenger. :D
     
  4. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I have heard the claims that Rasmussen is biased toward giving Republicans better numbers in their polls, but I have not investigated it. I thought this would be a good opportunity to take a look and see if their polls tend to overestimate Republican performance, and overall just how consistently accurate they are. Here is what I found:

    rasmussen_poll_comparison.png

    In the screenshot you can see where I've taken what data I could find from Rasmussen polls in the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections. In 2012, Rasmussen published data at the state level. In 2016, I could not find this same data.

    Most 2012 polls can be found starting here and paging back. For example: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...mpshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president

    I only included announcements dating back to Oct 24th, which would be 10 days before the election. Ideally close enough to be fairly accurate. For 2016, I used this: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...n_2016/election_2016_white_house_watch_trends

    As stated earlier in this thread, the 2016 general election margin as of their last poll was spot on. Of the 2012 polls, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Indiana were very close to the actual margin. Most polls were off by a factor of 3%+, with some very big misses in Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Final general election poll results can be found here. While mixed, a significant majority of the polls overestimated Romney's final margin.

    Next, I wanted something newer, so I also investigated the 2018 House predictions as well. The last prediction for the house I could find is here: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu..._re_leaning_in_the_house_senate_and_governors

    Note that the article states they will supply their final predictions Monday, but I could not find a more recent article. Of their predictions, I have taken the liberty of going through each name listed and striking out each incorrect call. You can ignore anything under Toss-Up - strikes there can simply be viewed as flips as no call was made.

    rasmussen_2018_house.png

    Overall they were correct in most counts for the House. However, as with 2012 POTUS polls, where they made an incorrect call, they were far more likely to miss siding with Republicans. From the available evidence, Rasmussen does appear to tilt further right with their polls and predictions when they are wrong. Also, as noted earlier in the this thread, Rasmussen's final generic D vs R house general ballot was significantly off. They predicted 46% R to 45% D vs the actual of 44.8% R to 53.4% D.

    As far as "consistent accuracy", this appears to depend on if you are just looking at the final POTUS general election poll from 2016, or if you are casting a wider net.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
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  5. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Propaganda Alert!

    What in the hell is your issue? 220,000+ people have died from COVID-19. It's absurd to say it's "wildly exaggerated," especially when it's really hurting the economy even with most businesses open.
    I hope they're okay, but physical exams of many COVID-19 positives show organ damage even when they have no symptoms. Is the damage permanent?
     
  6. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It is not remotely a propaganda piece.
    I have no issue. I take seriously trying to scare the living hell out of my fellow Americans.
    I hope they are okay too. Were it me I would not go out hunting. Organ damage. Are you the doctor on the forum here?
     
  7. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Final Rasmussen Poll for the 2020 Election.

    Biden 48 Trump 47. MoE 2.5

    [​IMG]
     
  8. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Final Trump Job Approval Among Likely Voters by Demographic

    upload_2020-11-2_17-27-0.png
     
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  9. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The latest polls are always the greatest polls. That's when the pollsters' reputations are on the line and they need to protect their credibility instead of shaping opinions.
     
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  10. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    If this is a national poll, so what? We don't have national elections. Whether Biden wins CA by 1 vote or 4,000,000, it doesn't change anything. Take CA out of the picture last time and Trump won the popular vote by 1,000,000.
     
  11. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    That is a higher approval rating than Obama had when he was re-elected.
     
  12. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, I know. But as @lemmiwinx pointed out, the final national poll is for bragging rights and credibility between the pollsters.

    This is also interesting....

    Rasmussen's Comparison of Trump/Obama on the last day of their first term.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    Like 538? I can see 30% of black males going for Trump. In FL Biden is only +5 among latinos, Clinton was +30 last time.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2020
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  14. pol meister

    pol meister Well-Known Member

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  15. StarFox

    StarFox Banned

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    You nailed that. We also need a guide to understand when Biden is lying or telling the truth, is he for fracking or against it? Is he for wars or against? Are blacks predators or not? Does he support gun confiscation or not? He has been solidly on both sides of these issues.
     
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  16. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    I think I can decipher his flip/flopping...

    He is against fracking. He is for wars. He think blacks are super predators. He supports gun confiscation.

    Biden gets a 0/4 in my book... That's why I arrived at my polling place a half an hour early to be voter #6 in line in my precinct (could've been #1 if I reallyyyyyy wanted to be; I just didn't want to be too far back in line so I could get to work on time) and voted for Donald J. Trump...

    There was very good election-day voter turnout at opening time in my 50/50 Clinton/Trump rural Dane County precinct... Meanwhile, in a 90/5 Clinton/Trump downtown Madison Dane County precinct, there was basically nobody outside as I drove by. I bet they all did the absentee thing so they have nobody left for election day...

    I have a feeling that rural WI is turning out today in droves... not looking good for Dems...
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2020

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