THIS one is facing earth. MAJOR FLARE WARNING: Sunspot AR2860 is big, angry, and it's directly facing Earth. The active region just unleashed a significant M4.7-class solar flare (Aug. 28 @ 0611 UT), probably hurling a CME toward Earth [* video at link below] If current trends continue, a major X-flare could be in the offing, so stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text. See video: * https://www.spaceweather.com/images2021/28aug21/m5_gold_crop.gif https://www.spaceweather.com/
Is this enough to cause damage or interruption to any of our satellites or to cause those on the ISS to do their "stack and hide" drill?
MINOR STORM WARNING: A CME hurled into space by Thursday's solar tsumani is expected to strike Earth later today (Aug. 29th) or tomorrow (Aug 30th). NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms when the CME arrives. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. AFTERGLOW OF A CME: On Aug. 27th, skies over Canada filled with color. It was the afterglow of a CME: more info at link https://www.spaceweather.com/
G1 STORM OVERVIEW o G1 storms occur approximately 1700 times per 11 years (1 solar cycle); o These storms can cause weak power grid fluctuations; o Minor impact on satellite operations is possible; o These storms can have an affect on migratory animals in northern regions. more at link http://www.northernlighthouse.ca/geomagnetic-storms/
Update: GEOMAGNETIC STORM FORECAST: A CME expected to hit Earth on Aug. 30th is either late or it missed. However, that doesn't mean there won't be a geomagnetic storm. Another CME, propelled toward us by Saturday's M4.7-class solar flare, is on the way. NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of G2-class geomagnetic storms when it arrives on Sept. 1-2. Aurora alerts: SMS Text. more at link https://www.spaceweather.com/ .
This is going to cause earth crust displacement and the end to life as we know it. China will build some really big ships that some will get on and survive.
The G2 level seems significantly concerning even though it seems termed moderate - it is my understanding that we don't have the ability to replace significant numbers of transforms, which I suspect means the possibility of very long power outages if they were damaged. I've been aware of CMEs that have caused preventative shutdown of certain satellites, but I don't remember transformers being damaged. Is this a case where ISS astronauts are going to be stacking supplies to hide behind?
Unfortunately I think the only way we'll really know whether a CME is going to make everything stop working is after everything stops working...
Well, it doesn't take long for radiation to get from the Sun to Earth - 8.4 minutes for light, as I remember. So, it seems like we wouldn't have much time to take accurate measurements and then implement some protection strategy. We would have to base actions on projections. As I remember from the past there has been time to protect satellites at least a little. Do you know what it would take to protect transformers? My bet is that the power grid can't just be turned off, at least not without serious damage.
Hmm... encase them in lead? I think its more an issue of having systems in place to quickly replace the transformers than it is an issue of preventing them from being damaged. Afaik, it doesn't matter so much whether the power is on or off, as the EMF essentially powers and overloads them either way, like moving a magnet through a coil. I suppose if there is power in the system already, certain components would be more quickly/easily overloaded, but thats just my speculation.
Theres so many things an EM burst would screw up. Just as one example, even though its not a critical one, meters than monitor things all over the country run on electromagnetic sensors of various sorts. Our flowmeters in the sewer sometimes use electromagnetism to measure water pressure (and thus depth) and their sometimes thrown off by just being too close to high voltage power lines. They're mostly underground and might actually survive a EMP/CME... but its a pretty common way to electronically monitor stuff. I imagine even if the power grid survives a EMP/CME, there's a lot of stuff that could still stop working and throw our automated civilization into serious chaos.
. This is interesting... Oct 1, 2021 SCHRODINGER'S CME HIT EARTH (NO, IT DIDN'T): Did a CME hit Earth's magnetic field today? An examination of solar wind data reveals evidence for both possibilities: Yes and no. There is no sharp discontinuity in solar wind speed typical of CME strikes. But, yes, there are enhanced magnetic fields like those often found in the wake of CMEs. Whatever happened, it successfully disturbed Earth's magnetic field just enough for some Arctic auroras on Sept. 30th/Oct. 1st. https://www.spaceweather.com/ .
