May's last roll of the dice:

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by cerberus, Dec 11, 2018.

  1. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "Dutch premier for 'save Brexit' breakfast, Merkel for elevenses and Juncker for late lunch in frantic tour of Europe TODAY amid warnings they will give her 'jack sh**'

    Has the wanker no self-perception? She can humiliate herself as much as she likes, but this is humiliating us as individuals and a nation. I predict that in the very near future she'll be resigning from Downing Street, and the sooner the better for all of us before she humiliates us any further. Oh the shame of it! Thatcher and Churchill are turning in their graves, I just know they are.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...our-EU-capitals-battles-save-Brexit-plan.html
     
  2. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    I've said it repeatedly, IMO there are only two internally consistent outcomes from the Brexit process:
    • Abandon Brexit and go against the will of the people
    • Leave the EU with a "no deal" Brexit and deal with the consequences
    Any attempt to get a deal would be doomed to failure because a majority will always be opposed to whatever kind of deal was proposed.

    It's now clear to me that a "no deal" Brexit is inevitable. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at the consequences both in the short and log term. The people who will do well out of it will be a tiny proportion of people who have the personal financial resources to ride out the choppy waters and then take advantage of any cheap assets that are going. For most of the rest of us, it's going to be very uncomfortable indeed (I include myself and my employees in that number, a no deal Brexit will inevitably result in my company going out of business :()
     
  3. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're buying into Project Fear big-time when a no deal departure might well be the best thing that could, and I believe would be the outcome for all of us. The elitists want to stay in because the EU is their post-domestic lives' happy hunting ground unto a very early retirement. Don't fall for the fire-and-brimstone spin.
     
  4. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    I really do hope that you're right because the majority view is that a "no deal" Brexit will be economically very damaging and that those people who will suffer most are those with the least to lose.

    Sadly my company will go under in the event of a "no deal" Brexit simply because close to 100% of our business is done with the EU and my clients have stated unequivocally that they will not (indeed cannot) renew contracts in the event of a "no deal" Brexit. Other companies may benefit in the event that we can do business more easily outside the EU but unfortunately the only way I could lower my prices enough to compete for business in emerging markets would be to offshore to India, something I'm not prepared to do.

    Usually by this time I would already be well into contracts renewal for the next financial year but all contracts are terminating on or before March 29. We've kept everyone on into the new year and built up enough financial reserves that everyone should get redundancy payments equivalent to at least 6 months salary but we will need to judge whether it's better for all concerned to have a quick and clean finish rather than limping on for a few months running through those financial reserves.
     
  5. Bush Lawyer

    Bush Lawyer Well-Known Member

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    Didn't you lot have a refererdum and that detrermined that you would leave the EU?
     
  6. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So sayeth the political elitists with an eye on their future 'pension plan' in the sunny uplands of Brussels. It's bullshit, and you ought to have to nous to counter it in the best interests of your company.
     
  7. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, in 2016, as you obviously know. What point are you making?
     
  8. Bush Lawyer

    Bush Lawyer Well-Known Member

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    So......you decided to get out.....so.....get out. Yes?
     
  9. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oh just eff off ffs!
     
  10. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    I guess we'll see, and I really do hope that you're right but unfortunately my clients are not renewing past Brexit and doubtless are seeking EU-based alternative suppliers so that they can continue their business unimpeded.
     
  11. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well without ************ you, you sure come across to me as being plenty intelligent enough to cope with whatever crops up, so my best wishes. To paraphrase the time-honoured phrase, 'Don't let the naysayers grind you down.' because they all have agendas.
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2018
  12. Bush Lawyer

    Bush Lawyer Well-Known Member

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    Did you vote in the Referendum? If so...was it to leave the EU, or to stay in?
     
  13. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Well like I say. The business will almost certainly go under because we cannot operate without paying clients and none of the EU ones are renewing at all post Brexit (and typically by now we'd already be well into negotiations and a fair proportion would already be agreed).

    I'm not sure that at my age I have the energy to start all over again from scratch :(
     
  14. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Just ****ing Google it and stop trolling me ffs!
     
  15. Bush Lawyer

    Bush Lawyer Well-Known Member

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    Does Google tell me whether Cerberus voted, and which way he voted?
     
  16. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Don't fret - I'll lend you a tenner! 'Stiff upper lip', and all that , , , we're Englishmen don't forget.
     
  17. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sorry I'm multitasking and misread your question (not that you answer mine, but I know why???) - Yes, and whilst I voted in favour of the European trading bloc however many years ago it was, I voted against remaining in the EU per se. I voted for Brexit in other words.
     
  18. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    It's not a case of not fretting, it's making decisions that directly affect people's lives.

    Do we keep the company limping along in a Micawberesque hope that "something will turn up", eating through the reserves in the process, or do we just make a decision to wind up the company and at least be able to give people a decent redundancy package (so they can pay the mortgage while they try and find a new job) ?
     
  19. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Don't you have other markets out there to replace the existing ones? I mean there's the whole world to trade with now? Don't answer that if it's too complex - I don't have a head for business, I can only write stories and novellas.
     
  20. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Not really, the countries that can afford our services are few and far between. Expanding globally is something that we've been trying for more than 15 years with poor results:
    • Most of the world cannot afford our services, they'll go with an Indian, Philippine or Indonesian company instead
    • We found through expensive trial and error that the US and Japan are difficult places to do business
    • Australia and New Zealand are a very long way away
    There was a whole world to trade with before.

    We have no clear idea about what our future trading arrangements with the rest of the world will be. Dr Fox said that our existing EU deals will be rolled over - in that case there's no benefit for Brexit. If not then we're on WTO terms, which aren't good for service businesses so we'll be even worse off. Perhaps in time there will be a series of trade deals, but they're years, if not decades away.

    I have decisions to make in the next few months - I cannot just wait an hope (well I can, but IMO that's an irresponsible way to run a business).

    Well here's hoping that companies like mine will be in the minority and that the vast majority of companies will continue to do business with the EU unimpeded.
     
  21. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well apart from imposing tariffs I don't see how a few vindictive penpushers can stop your previous customer base from continuing to patronise you. And you spend quite a long time on this board if you don't mind my saying so, so you obviously have some to work on things. I know we've had the occasional run-in, and you've got on my nerves a few times (lol), but like I said recently, I always like talking to you, and I really do wish you the best of luck in your predicament.
     
  22. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    It's quite simple, the process for becoming an accredited supplier for these large EU companies is easy if you're in the EU (it's in effect automatic), expensive and difficult if you're not. If you are Wipro (or one of the other large tech businesses) you can afford both the time and the money to do this (but even then there are parts of the business they have not managed to get into). Our contracts simply aren't large enough to justify this expense.

    It's good to be the boss ;)

    Time isn't the issue here - uncertainty is.

    Thank you, I appreciate that.
     
  23. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The small-minded vindictive bastards - god how I hate bureaucrats! - will make it difficult in every way their tiny brains can dream up at first but I'll bet that sooner or later, when their indigenous industries and businesses start complaining, and tax revenues start falling off, (can you imagine the car makers putting up with that? Yeah right!) things will settle down to more or less how they were.
     
  24. The Don

    The Don Well-Known Member

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    Really they're only doing their jobs. They need to ensure that suppliers adhere to the same rules (they don't want to find out later that a supplier was employing child labour or breaking sanctions and so on). If you're an EU member then that's a given (or more specifically that you're legally obliged to do it), if you're not then you need to demonstrate this across a range of subjects, The US (and many other countries) have similar rules and even setting up a local subsidiary may not get around them.

    As far as my clients are concerned, there are plenty of suppliers in the EU they can use, they may not be quite as good, and they may be a little more expensive but that's a tiny bump in the road - indeed it may even provide a boost for their service sector.

    Car makers are already making plans. Jaguar Landrover are expanding their EU manufacturing capability and shrinking their UK capacity as a way of addressing the supply chain issues you allude to.
     
  25. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well obviously I have zero insight into your side of the issue, but nevertheless I wish you eventual success. And you never know - there may be clients further afield when we get out of this charade.
     

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