Missouri tops the nation for high black homicide rate … again

Discussion in 'Gun Control' started by Galileo, Apr 24, 2018.

  1. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  2. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    Missouri repealed its permit-to-purchase handgun law in 2007. We can see the results of that decision in the above chart.
     
  3. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    Prove the cause and effect.

    "Webster and his colleagues produced a similar but more rigorous study in 2014. It involved actual counts and not assumptions about what might have happened in a counterfactual, and it didn't stop looking at forward data at the most convenient time for its conclusions. This study tried to prove that Missouri's 2007 repeal of its "permit to purchase" law led to a 16 percent increase in murder rates there. Lots of other factors were controlled for, and the numbers indeed showed higher murder rates compared to the U.S. average at the time after the permit law was repealed.

    It's tricky to credit the permit-to-purchase repeal with causing that rise, because in the four years prior to eliminating the law, Missouri's murder rates had already gone up 15 percent while the national one had stayed essentially the same. This suggests that unaccounted factors influenced Missouri's rising murder rate both before and after the law changed."

    https://reason.com/archives/2016/01/05/you-know-less-than-you-think-a/print
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
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  4. DoctorWho

    DoctorWho Well-Known Member

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    Even so, the criteria for purchase of firearms still remains, the instant check and form 4473, so prohibited persons are still not allowed to purchase firearms, and criminals are not purchasing firearms in gun stores as they:
    1. Are prohibited
    2. Do not want a paper trail leading to them
     
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  5. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    "Using death certificate data available through 2010, the repeal of Missouri’s PTP law was associated with an increase in annual firearm homicides rates of 1.09 per 100,000 (+23 %) but was unrelated to changes in non-firearm homicide rates."
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-014-9865-8

    So it doesn't appear that the increase in gun homicide was due to some general increase in violence. Only gun homicide increased.That's what you would expect if there is a causal relationship. I'm going to go with the most plausible explanation. Your article engages in cherry picking. Just look at the graph to see the overall pattern.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  6. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    You're conveniently ignoring the private sale loophole.
     
  7. DoctorWho

    DoctorWho Well-Known Member

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    A varible rate change as that is merely a spike in either direction and cannot be directly linked to a repeal of a permit unless you can prove an attendant spike in sales and those guns showing up as evidence in homicides and other crimes.
     
  8. DoctorWho

    DoctorWho Well-Known Member

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    You need to provide actual proof beyond mere allegations or speculations, that such actually occurs.
     
  9. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    The 2007 law didn't apply to private sales, did it?
     
  10. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    Yet even while the gun homicide rate increased, the overall homicide rate has seen different results, which accounts for the substitution effect. In 2005, with the permit law in place, the homicide rate was 6.9. For the ten years subsequent to the change in the law six of those years had a lower homicide rate, and a seventh was 7.0.

    http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htm
     
  11. Galileo

    Galileo Well-Known Member

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    Of course it did. What would be the point of having a permit-to-purchase system if it didn't apply to private sales?

    "Webster and colleagues8 reported that immediately following the repeal of Missouri’s PTP handgun law there was a two-fold increase in the percentage of guns that had unusually short intervals between the retail sale and recovery by police, an indicator of firearm diversion or trafficking. 11,12 The repeal also coincided with a sharp increase in the percentage of crime guns recovered by police in Missouri that had been originally sold by in-state retailers, from 56.4 percent in 2006 to 71.8 percent in 2012.13....

    "Within Missouri, firearm homicide rates per 100,000 increased sharply between the pre- and post-repeal periods in each of the three large central metro counties/jurisdictions – by 30 percent in Jackson County (11.2 to 14.7), 47 percent in St. Louis County (5.0 to 7.4), 27 percent in St. Louis City (21.7 to 27.5), and 34 percent overall in the 9 Missouri counties designated as large metropolitan fringe counties (3.1 to 4.2).

    "This sharp increase in firearm homicide rates in Missouri beginning in 2008 was out of sync with changes during that period nationally and in states bordering Missouri (Table 1)....

    "This study provides compelling evidence that the repeal of Missouri’s PTP handgun licensing law, which required all handgun purchasers to pass a background check even for purchases from private sellers, contributed to a sharp increase in Missouri’s homicide rate."
    https://www.jhsph.edu/research/cent...dgun-purchaser-licensing-law-on-homicides.pdf
     
  12. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    Gangsta culture
     
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  13. Rucker61

    Rucker61 Well-Known Member

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    "sharp increase in Missouri’s homicide rate"

    Note that the authors' say "homicide rate", not "gun homicide rate". The homicide rate in 2007 when the law was repealed was 6.5. In previous years (2003-2006, while the law was in effect), the homicde rates were 5.1, 6.1, 6.9, and 6.3. What accounted for the "sharp increases" in the homicide rate (23.5% between 2003 and 2006) while the law was in effect? To repeat, the homicide rate in 2007 was 6.5. In 2009 it was 6.5. In 2012 it was 6.5 In 2011 and 2013, it was 6.1, 6% less than in 2007 when the law was overturned.

    "Sharp increase" indeed. You know which other state had flat rates for those years? New Jersey. Heck, DC opened up the floodgates to privately owned firearms and their homicide rate fell from 30.1 in 2007 to 13.9 in 2012.
     
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  14. DoctorWho

    DoctorWho Well-Known Member

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    Well, since there was no sharp increase above a normal spike.
    There is no correlation between criminal activity and statistics and the actions of law abiding citizens, and trying to place blame of a slight increase in crime by people already prohibited from owning firearms is fallacious extremism.
     
  15. 6Gunner

    6Gunner Banned

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    Josh Sugarmann is a notorious liar who has publicly admitted his willingness to mislead the public at large to pursue his ultimate agenda. If he told me the sun came up in the east I'd wonder when the Earth's rotation had reversed itself.

    The issue of black on black crime is a crisis in this country, and we need to find a way to have an honest dialogue on how to address it.
     
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  16. DoctorWho

    DoctorWho Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it is also a self correcting problem too.
    Nobody really wants a "Great White (fathead) Father figure" rescuing them from themselves, eventually those Criminals will dwindle down to more manageable numbers.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  17. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    In the majority of states in the united states, there is absolutely no requirement for any permit for the purchase of a handgun, or any other type of commonly available firearm. Despite this fact, throughout the rest of the nation, homicide levels continued to fall significantly, despite the absence of any permit requirements or restrictions on firearms ownership and acquisition. So why did homicide rates fall in the rest of the united states? Why did these rates not increase?

    Beyond that, where is the actual evidence that the rise in homicides was tied to legally purchased firearms?
     
  18. Xenamnes

    Xenamnes Banned

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    The violence policy center is not a credible source of information. There is no evidence that any of the murders have been committed by those who legally purchased firearms.
     
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  19. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So it's the guns fault?

    63% of the murder in Missouri is committed by black males.

    37% of the murder in Missouri is white AND hispanic COMBINED.

    http://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/ibi_apps/WFServlet

    Missouri is 82.3% caucasian.

    Missouri is 11.5% black.

    Please explain why, in a state where guns are as available to white people as they are to black people, that 11.5% of the population commits 63% of the murder.

    Why aren't white people killing just as many if the problem is "gunz".
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2018
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  20. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Detroit too.

    It's true that shootings are up in Detroit.

    What they don't tell you is that they're self defense shootings.
     
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  21. 6Gunner

    6Gunner Banned

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    Yeah, that doesn't fit their narrative, so they bury the facts.
     
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  22. DoctorWho

    DoctorWho Well-Known Member

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    Along with the dead.....
    Recidivism from the grave ? Hardly.....

    Dead criminals rarely live to re-offend, lol, no parole, probation, or early release from the cemetery.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
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  23. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    socio-economic inequality is a terrible thing
     
  24. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    ..and has nothing to do with murder.
     
  25. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    sure it does.

    the more socio-economic inequality in a society, the more crime it has.

    the poorer you are, the more likely you are to be a criminal
     

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