I think it's pretty obvious he trusts the statistics when they align with his preferred worldview and distrusts them when they do not. I don't think the explanation has to be any more complicated than that.
No. I do not trust any of the statistics from NYPD completely. I provided reputable sources showing NYPD consistently portrays higher and lower crime rates to serve their agenda. I also shared alternative data sources that do exist to continue the dialogue. I grew up in NY and I can tell you the homicide and rape rates are far lower than the 1980's and 1990's on average, as well as, 2-6 years ago. I think you did not fully read my posts or my links but that is okay; now that question and your comment are fully replied to. I do not doubt that crime rates fluctuate year to year and between decades in NYC but currently with less people venturing outside than before, and less news reports of violent crimes, coupled with some independent data sources I can say with high confidence crime is down overall in NYC.
Almost everyone does that. We all hate cognitive dissonance, and, even if we know what 'confirmation bias' is, it's very difficult not to succumb to it. This goes triple if the question begin argued about has a moral dimension. (Thus, people who reject evolution are not really concerned about the science -- they're concerned about what they see as the implications of accepting evolution -- the "without God, all things are possible argument".) About the only people I have ever seen who don't automatically do that, are a loose 'community' of 'racial realists' who have had an ongoing debate about the Hispanic crime rate. An example is here: https://vdare.com/posts/unzism-america-strikes-back Trigger warning: that site is for conservatives and libertarians only. Any liberal/progressive who goes there and starts clicking on the links will have a heart attack. On the Left, I would also make an exception for James Flynn, of the eponymous 'Flynn Effect'. [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect ] He's the only person on the Left I have found who is even minimally honest on the race-and-IQ debate (although there are quite a few liberalish academics who are obviously aware of the truth but dodge the issue -- fair enough, they've got to eat.)
Just so I understand, the basis for your "high confidence" is "less news reports of violent crimes"? What are the "independent data sources" you're referring to that show crime is down this year (you're right, I missed them in this six-page thread)?
Well, of course cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias are very much universally experienced phenomena for human beings, regardless of education level, personal culture, etc, etc... having said that, I am never going to be 100% sure on my claim unless I could measure all variables and parameters, but, as someone who lives here, travels around here, works with statistics professionally and academically, my level of statistical confidence is high, and margin of error relatively low.
I pasted the links and 6 pages is not a huge thread. You can even use the search feature for my posts specifically. After I know you read my posts and links I can provide additional independent data.
You think personal anecdotes of one person (you) living in NYC make your "level of statistical confidence is high, and margin of error relatively low"?
Let's back up a second: do you understand why "less news reports of violent crimes" is a flawed metric?
"On the Left, I would also make an exception for James Flynn, of the eponymous 'Flynn Effect'. [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect ] He's the only person on the Left I have found who is even minimally honest on the race-and-IQ debate (although there are quite a few liberalish academics who are obviously aware of the truth but dodge the issue -- fair enough, they've got to eat.)" Yeah, in my Psychology program and in my research on psychometric tests, we heavily discussed, read about, and debated the Flynn effect. The interpretation of it is myriad and highly controversial, and it is not really an all or nothing liberal versus conservative viewpoint, although those controversies do arise too within the research community.
You did not fully read that post or my other posts. I also mentioned independent data, reports on the NYPD data, and not just my own experience here. I work professionally with statistics and I would love to explain further, but first read my posts and my links provided so we can be on the same page.
Give me a post # where you provide a link to the "independent data" on current crime levels in NYC and I'll go read it and all the links contained within it.
It wasn't a demand, it was an offer: if you provide a link to the "independent data", I promise I'll review it. AFAICT, you're basing your "high statistical confidence" on your feels: "less news reports" "I live here" "NYPD statistics are flawed" The only "independent data" I've seen you link to is this: With all due respect to the public defenders, much like your "less news reports" source of "data", the flaws in measuring crime levels by "complaints being docketed to court calendars" should be obvious to all, but in case it isn't, here's a response from the NYPD (which covers just one way the "complaints being docketed to court calendars" data is flawed):
Agree completely. I would like to have a new verb, to replace 'believe' ... something that incorporates the idea that this is my tentative conclusion but I know I could be wrong. I've always liked the criterion of Karl Popper for rational belief: What Evidence Would Make Me Change My Mind? If you literally cannot conceive of any -- for a factual belief -- then you've got a religious belief. "Consign it to the flames!"
Yes, I understand the Flynn effect is fading out, or something. I've always put it down to the salutary effect of television. I think it's a very interesting question and I also think we're missing something: go to Guatemala today and give the natives an IQ test and they will almost certainly not do very well. But these are the descendants of the Maya!!! They had pyramids, astronomy, an exponential-positional numbering system!! What happened? I believe there is some 'social effect' that causes 'IQ' to be developed, or not, or developed in certain directions. (I spent some time in military prison fifty years ago -- and one of the things I observed from the Blacks with whom i was locked up was this: they were not 'academic' -- but many of them were highly verbal, very quick at repartee back and forth ... much sharper than the white boys. But I don't think this verbal fluency -- I think it, or something similar was called "rapping the dozens" -- was something that would have been easy to test.) But I'm no psychologist, so maybe this has all been explored. And presumably we'll know more in a couple of more decades when we understand the human genome a lot better.
Yeah. IQ tests are very culturally biased as well and do not reflect many cultural differences, outside multiple intelligences, or creativity. They measure g pretty well and correlate to academic success probability in Western styled (or similar) academic settings. EQ is also not measured, which is a more siginificant predictor of financial success, or business ability. Some of my Psychology professors and later research colleagues told me that the Flynn effect is its own bias in general.
Yes ... they were quite the thing, once. Although I recall, when Kuhn died, that there was a pretty convincing critique of his main thesis in the NYRB by Steven Weinberg: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1998/10/08/the-revolution-that-didnt-happen/
Yes; quite. The critique is compelling, but I do not think it overturns Kuhn's paradigm, and cyclic narrative of science. The physical sciences have seen a few, and certainly the social sciences.
Cherry picking, misrepresenting the full argument, and asking an uninformed question. Good for you George. To answer your question there are many components to an IQ test and even visual/spatial relationships are not universally understood throughout cultures, and even if they were that does not dismiss the other sections explicitly designed for specific cultural norms and academic assessment.
I worked with a cognitive psychologist who also was a linguist with a research interest in visual spatial testing. This was at OSU and her published research shows a very different outcome.
Not my former mentors work but an interesting read: https://academic.oup.com/acn/article/28/8/784/5660 At a future date I'll post some of her salient work as well.