Odds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/odds-are-your-next-governor-will-be-a-democrat/

538 has released their Gubernatorial Model for the 2018 midterms. Here is how their predictions break down:





You can also go to their model page to see who is currently ahead in each state.

 

Blue wave is coming. Tell your friends.

Once democrats retake the house they can go to reversing everything trump has done. They have a ban gun agenda but they lie about it according to Senator mccaskill. Superstar Nancy Pelosi will be speaker. We can go back to sending the palestinians' 221 million dollars in aid when aid is needed here in America. Democrats will once again be able to bribe the victims of their sexual assaults with tax payer money and get away with it.

 

The gerund in the link is "forecasting." There's some unquantifiable contingency and uncertainty in that.

 

I have been talking to a lot of people in Iowa and I have several people who have never voted in the mid terms (myself included) who say they will this time around. I am convincing as many people as I can to vote RED here in Iowa, I don't trust the polls. Many Republicans will wait until the very day of voting to cast their vote so anything is possible. I am actually getting some Africans to vote too and not all of them supported Trump before. What I am finding out is many Republicans vote in presidential elections but not the mid terms. We all need to remind our Republican friends to vote on November 6th and remind them so they don't forget. I will keep up the fight and get as many as I can to vote for the Republicans.

If the Democrats take back power you can forget ever having closed borders and our economy will go back to being just average if not worse.

#WalkAway

 

[QUOTE="Teemster33, post: 1069763330, member: 79245" I am actually getting some Africans to vote too

[/QUOTE]

wth?!? So disrespectful....

 

Have democrats imported that many illegals and spread them everywhere across America to do such a thing? I know the left is calling for their illegals to vote like Stacey abrams.

 

Odds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat...

If yiu live in a deep blue state like california

 

What did they say about 2016? They haven't changed anything, its the same message and will end with the same results, the Blue Wave will end up as a river of liberal tears...

 

There is a blue wave against Nancy Pelosi. I picked that up today on either the Stephanopoulos show or Meet the press.

 

Report from CA. I live here. Cox is trailing by 7 pts. And the R party is rallying back of him. Gavin Newsom is a snake. Even democrats should not make him governor. I told the RNC my vote is for Cox and I am hoping he wins.

 

Darn tootin. Can't let those African Americans vote at all. How dare he work with them to garner votes?

 

If gerrymandering actually worked the democrats wouldn't be winning any seats in the House would they?

lol

 

I wish there were hope for california

America needs that state

But I dont see it ever voting republican again

 

My wife is from California and loves the state and the beaches but the Democrats have turned it into a sad place to live.

 

There's a limit to extent that gerrymandering can work, eventually the other side has to win some seats.

 

That makes no sense.

Are you saying that after so many gerrymandered districts that the policy stops applying to other candidates?

 

I'm saying that there's a limit to how you can draw the borders of electoral districts so as to engineer an advantage for one party - as long as there is still significant support for the other party.

Typically what happens is that the party doing the gerrymandering will ensure that a majority of seats favour themselves with comparatively small majorities and a minority of seats favour the other party with very large majorities.

 

So you are saying that gerrymandering only works unless people want to vote for the other party?

Once again, that makes no sense.

 

If no-one wants to vote for the other party, there's no point gerrymandering - you'll win the election easily.

There are a number of ways gerrymandering is politically useful:

• If you are a small minority you could conceivably gerrymander a single district or constituency so as to ensure that you have at least some representation - though that begs the question of how you got to the position where you were able to gerrymander
• You actually have a slight minority of support but wish to retain the majority of seats. That's the situation in a number of states where a GOP-led legislatures have engineered a significant electoral advantage
• You have a majority and wish to win all the seats

It's not just the GOP who have been guilty of gerrymandering in the past, the Democratic party has also done it. Other countries have independent commissions to set electoral boundaries to try and make things as fair as possible.

 

I'm sorry but you actually have no idea why states draw the districts the way they do.

It has nothing to do with one party getting votes its so that like minded groups can be represented. For instance, the state of Iowa may draw lines that encompass dairy farmers. It makes no sense to lump them in with inner city people as both groups have different needs.

States will often use a number of reasons to draw their lines, religion, race, business, agriculture, culture such as native americans…...whatever the big interests are in the state will usually take priority.

Now almost always these groups will have the same ideological thinking and tend to vote a certain way, that is just a byproduct of the states drawing the lines, not the reason why.

Almost all states draw their lines with a bipartisan commission or one that is completely neutral, they aren't drawn based on political affiliation.

 

Holy **** that was a dumb comment.

 

......err no.

The GOP has, through gerrymandering, engineered itself a significant electoral advantage in a number of states. The party currently in power often has the opportunity to do this and the GOP has done so in a number of states.

As for the claim that almost all states draw their lines with a bipartisan commission, I think you'll have to support that with evidence. With respect to congressional districts:

- one state has an independent body
- six states have bipartisan commissions
- eight have only one district
- the rest are controlled by the state legislature

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering_in_the_United_States#Redistricting_commissions

 

Not in my state. Dean is an idiot. He sucked as mayor of Nashville, and the state won't tolerate his incompetence at the state level. Another blue wave that's rapidly dying out....

 

In a thread discussing the likely election of democratic governors, don't you find that you're just a teesie bit off topic here? I mean, you realize that gerrymandering doesn't effect a state governors election, right?

 

Not mine.