Oxford study: millions may have already built up coronavirus immunity

It has. It was brought up as a very hot topic in the mid 2000's. There are various reasons, from the aging population of boomers to the increase in chronic conditions to the draconian education and litigation systems. It's world wide, not just on the U.S. and this is why no country is keeping up even before COVID-19 raised its head.

 

There’s a couple early study results showing blood type (A, B, O) might have something to do with risk and immunity.

 

For perspective.

March 2 was the first C19 death in America correct?

7,700 people die a day in America from various reason (pre C19)

So in those 30 days 230,000 Americans have died from various causes, roughly 6,000 due to C19. Or 2.6 % more than "normal"

https://www.reference.com/world-view/many-people-die-day-world-b5a2258c374cba57​

 

You have two choices here. You either let everyone get infected and have over 2 million deaths or you buy time - that is have lockdowns and have less people infected until a vaccine and other methods of saving lives is found. In that way you may get away with only losing 2-300,000 American lives, though having left things so late you will be lucky to get off with that.

 

2 million deaths is nothing more than an estimate.

And you're presenting a false dichotomy between doing nothing and totalitarianism.

In reality, there is a lot of middle ground between those two options.

Sweden has led the way in that regard. They've instituted some modest restrictions, but have otherwise continued to live as normal.

Is Sweden collapsing in on itself as a result? No.

Are they experiencing a more severe outbreak than their neighbors? No.

In fact, Sweden has less COVID infections on a per capita basis than Norway does, even though Norway has responded by shutting everything down.

 

Why are you not using just daily number of deaths from Covid in your calculations? Is it because you don't like the figure of 18% more than "normal"?

 

Sweden has 3 times the per capita deaths of norway

 

And what do you think explains that?

 

Sweden are going for the hard immunity approach which is something I'm 50 50 on. If they don't sway from that approach the information will be useful in future epidemics to see which is the better approach

 

What are you on about?

In any 30 day period roughly 210,000 Americans die of all causes.

In the last 30 roughly 6,000 dead of C19


2.8% more dead than normal in the same time period.

What 18% are you talking about?

 

But why would Sweden have a lower per capita infection rate yet a higher mortality rate? I don't think that discrepancy can be explained by their COVID policy, but by some other variable that is elusive. Perhaps Sweden's age distribution explains it? Or maybe something within their hospital system?

 

I imagine one of the first things the CDC did when testing started ramping up was test a random group of 100 or so people in each of the hot spots. That would give them a ballpark figure of how many people in the community have it, and that's probably what they based the projections on that they showed Trump, which scared the hell out of him, and got him to listen to the smart people.

By now, we've down a million tests, Italy's done a bunch, South Korea's almost the gold standard, and we're not picking up huge numbers of asymptomatic people and neither are any other countries.

Based on how deaths lag infections by ten days or so, a base 1% mortality rate, and roughly 8,000 dead, that would mean there were roughly 800,000 cases ten days ago. That would put infections at one out of every 300 people. Does that sound right for ten days ago?

 

It would indeed be a miracle.

220,000 Americans died from lower respiratory infection, influenza and pneumonia in 2018.

1,200,000 Americans 80 and older died last year.

2,800,000 Americans died of all causes in 2018.

Just putting the numbers in perspective.

Further, how many fatalities attributed to Coronavirus are inevitable because the patient is already in extremis?

Here in Vermont over 80% of fatalities have been nursing home residents with serious comorbidities. Most had dementia, all had do not resuscitate orders. They didn't take up hospital beds or ventilators.

The math doesn't seem to be adding up and the numbers and disease profile are constantly being reinterpreted. The models are meaningless.

Look at the hard numbers. Florida and Louisiana give out the most information of State Dept of Health sites I've found so far.

Louisiana gives hospital bed totals utilization, ICU occupancy, ventilators used and available. All by individual hospital.

 

Interesting. I doubt post Covid-19 the total US fatalities in 2020 won't depart from the year on year total or trends. Monthly might see a rise but maybe not, influenza deaths reported have dropped as have other causes. We're near the end of flu season so maybe Covid-19 deaths are in addition too normal mortality and not just replacing the proximal cause.

Time will tell, but I do feal the hysterics are caused by an inability to grasp large numbers in a rational way by the human mind.

 

Our experts have been very testing challenged during the crisis.
They have been especially anti-body testing challenged. Such a 'puzzlement'.

 

Well certainly they all need to give us the best information possible and that's Federal, State and even City and Country governments

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Your figure "7,700 people die a day in America from various reason (pre C19)"
Number of deaths from Cvid yesterday = 1400

GIVES : 18.18% "more dead than normal" using the same calculation method you used for your 30 day roll out

 

Sweden are not testing as many people

 

If I have put things in the wrong place here that is completely an accident. I found things I thought I had answered at the end and put them back where I thought they had come from..

It's basically the estimate which has been given. Had nothing been done you almost certainly would have lost 2,200,000 people. I would suggest a lot more.

That is just flaming. I would put it another way. You are demanding your right to do whatever you want even when what you want to do will result in another person's death. Why do you believe that your right to do what you want is more important than other people's right to live. That is me giving back to you the flame you just gave to me.

You presented the dichotomy over people not working or working. My position comes from this being an extremely contagious disease and one we do not know yet. People were imagining that it would go away in the summer but now they are thinking this is unlikely as it seems very happy also in warm places.

Now there is somewhere which has been dancing the dance in a very different way and that is South Korea. They shut their borders once the virus got in, the set up mass testing immediately with careful follow up of contacts and both isolating and giving them free medical help if they needed it. They also instructed everyone to wear a mask. They have managed to avoid any mass lockdown.

If you want to argue with me, it really isn't necessary to have a go at me. At this point in time we have two choices, we can buy time or we can go for herd immunity which will result in a catastrophic amount of deaths. Both the US and the UK were going for herd immunity until someone managed to get through their thick heads the amount of people whose death that would result in. They changed. The death thing for leaders or managers of countries is just the number they think they can get away with without the population in general getting so mad they become unruly.

Your previous idea of being able to improve your health service probably would help you to have a more equal health service by giving everyone free health care re this and also would stop the spread of infection as people would be eager to be tested and get treatment rather than be scared of the cost and so try to ignore this and pass the virus on or even die. In order for the health system to be able to manage this they would at best have had to start working when they first heard of this to get the supplies they need but without quarantine it is unlikely they would ever have been able to keep up. I heard an expert in the field say today that the best course of action on a medical level would have been to put people in lockdown in January when we knew the situation in China. He was sensible enough to realise that no one would have gone with this. What they are having to do is balance the need for society in general with the feeling of the people.

Would you like to give a few of the middle ground ideas you have as I haven't seen any presented.

I don't agree with your position on Sweden. They are having a fair amount of deaths and almost certainly have far more people infected than they know about.

Sweden in comparison to her neighbours​

Sweden population 9,995,153 known cases 6443 deaths 373

Norway Population 5,258,317 cases 5550 deaths 62

Denmark 5,748,769 Population cases 4977 deaths 161

Finland Population 5,474, 083 cases 1882 deaths cases 25

Sweden almost certainly has a lot more people infected who will be needing help. If you look above with about twice the number of people to its neighbour Norway it only has about a thousand more cases but about 6 times the deaths. Given that it only has around twice the amount of people but 6 times the amount of deaths, Sweden almost certainly has a lot more cases than it is aware of. Does it have mass testing to go with its hope to show that Herd Immunity is possible without mass death?

It has been suggested by some Professor that Sweden could have a million infected during this month at 5% dying that would amount to quite a lot of people.

That is where the 'buying time' comes in. The US tried this and we are now seeing the results. The UK tried this. Johnson went around shaking everyone's hands, even those with the virus I have heard and he now is still not able to go out even though it is 9 or 10 days since he got the virus. I have just read his pregnant girlfriend is believed to have it now.

What you want has been tried and Trump was told that that would see around 2,200,000 deaths in the US. Presumably he was convinced because he changed his story in a day of it being Fake News to all China's fault for lying that only 3,000 had died.

The choice is accept a massive death toll or play for time. Both the US and the UK and France, Italy Spain and everywhere else who decided to ignore this has payed the price. Sweden may be the one which proves the rule (do not understand that one\) but it is highly unlikely.

I have a daughter whose baby was due yesterday. She is terrified of going into hospital to have the child but has to as she had to have a previous caesarean and could haemorrhage so she thinks the hospital is marginally less dangerous. Thankfully where we live they can still bring their partners in but that is not the case anymore in London.

So we know that what you believe will happen to Sweden did not happen to other countries which tried that idea. You believe this will not happen to Sweden
Past experience with other countries, Italy, Spain, the US and the UK says you are wrong.

Where are all your ideas, all the things you had a go at me about only putting two. Either mass deaths or play for time. That really is the choice we have. It was seeing what was happening in Italy which made the US and UK change their minds on Herd Immunity.

There is an article Coronavirus - the hammer and the Dance which speaks about the need to play for time.

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With an infectious rate, susceptibility, of 50% maybe, and a fatality rate of >.1 "will result” is not certain.

 

Link?

 

"The country has since tested 101,986 people for the virus, or 18,996 per million people. This compares to just 34,388, or 6,140 per million people in neighbouring Denmark, and under 40,000 in Sweden."
https://www.thelocal.no/20200403/how-has-norway-managed-to-test-so-many-for-coronavirus

 

Flu season. Deaths are higher than average for the year this month. So I'd guess your math is off because the 7,700 doesn't account for sessional variation.

We'll see higher numbers, much higher. But, with 80% of fatalities being 75 and above with multiple comorbidities, it's my belief that a corresponding drop in daily mortality post pandemic will offset some of the deaths. I'm speaking of the over 80 cohort in poor health mostly bedridden with cognitive deficiencies. Tragically Coronavirus will take their life a little prematurely, measured in weeks and months perhaps, yet by the years end a drop in mortality post outbreak will show little increase in 2020 over prior years.

The increase will be from the younger cohort with multiple comorbidities, sadly many will have undiagnosed comorbidities and their serious cases will come with a lot of shock and suffering.

It will be tragic for some, yet life, and the same life risk we all endure until we can't.

 

The 7700 is not my figure!

 

The vast majority dying are at high risk for dying on any given day.

You don't crush the snot out of everyone else's lives to prevent that.