Peak Internal Combustion Engine Sales Behind Us

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by WillReadmore, Jun 5, 2022.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The EV is quite a bit more expensive, and only gets in the ball park if eligible for incentive.
    EV vs. Gas: Which Cars Are Cheaper to Own? - Car and Driver
    https://www.caranddriver.com › shopping-advice › ev-...


    May 22, 2020 — The Kona Electric, on the other hand, is more costly than the gas version by $7994. Then you get to factor in state and local incentives if ...
     
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  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The temptation of greed and coercion . . .
    Biden Energy Secretary: Buy an EV Peasant!
    Eric Worrall
    Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, who last month pocketed 1.6M exercising share options on an Electric Vehicle company, has suggested people experiencing gasoline pain should just buy an EV. . . .
     
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  3. Nightmare515

    Nightmare515 Ragin' Cajun Staff Member Past Donor

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    That's not just Elon that's auto manufacturers in general. Modern automobiles are overloaded with so much crap that it has become a struggle to just find a regular bare bones vehicle.

    I don't want my car to fuss at me to change the oil
    I don't want my car to fuss at me if the tires are low
    I don't want a touch screen tablet thing in it to change the radio
    I don't want to be able to talk to it
    I don't want the car to help me stay in the lane on the highway

    I was in search of a newer truck for months and was taken aback by the fact that I simple bare bones truck just doesn't exist anymore. I just wanted a normal 4x4 V8 truck with a radio in it to haul stuff. No none of this "smart 4x4" that kicks on when the truck thinks I want it to and none of this "smart V8 power on demand" crap that allows the computer to turn off half my cylinders when it doesn't think I need them at the moment. I finally found a relatively normal truck that was 10 years old that I had to reprogram the computer to stop making the truck do crap I didn't ask it to do. It's about the closest thing to a normal truck that I was able to get.

    Everything doesn't have to be "smart" nowadays that's why my daily driver is a 30 year old stick shift mid sized truck and even the "newer" bare(ish) bones truck is still only used when I need to haul heavy stuff. I was at a friends house last weekend and this guy had a "smart" refrigerator with a tablet screen on the front of it...I asked what the hell was the point of that and he said the thing tracks when you put stuff in it and tells you when food expires and tells you what you have left in the fridge.

    What the hell!? Open the damn door of the thing! This is getting comically ridiculous at this point.
     
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  4. Nonnie

    Nonnie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Don't we all wish cars simply stuck to a lovely maintenance plan. Has Musk ever owned a car?
     
  5. Nonnie

    Nonnie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    From the same place where you said I don't care about gas/oil.
     
  6. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Percentages ..[​IMG] https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/'

    So .. all transportation is given as 29% .. I guessed cars at ~ half of that .. 15% seems reasonable.


    -- [​IMG]

    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...et-slow-growth-in-u-s-faster-in-china-europe/
    New EV Sales - 2% .. all of which are comming in metro area.

    Yup .. "Ballard Power" - hydrogen power for larger vehicles - is not doing well - at all.

    It is safe to say that the majority of new EV sales are going to people who have them as toys .. and not as for primary vehicle usage .. or . in certain rare situations where someone does not use vehicle to drive to work .. select situations in select metro areas.

    So .. even if we were there technologically (and we are not) - even if the infrastructure was in place (not even close) -- a decade away for metro areas .. longer for the rest - we are not even close to the product being affordable ...

    We have major supply chain barriers .. you can't double the demand in an "inelastic" market without the price going crazy .. and the rare earths are the pinnacle of inelastic. Stuff like Tungsten - a metal I know very well having shares in "Almonty" just can not sustain a rapid increase in demand .. without pricing itself out of the market .. and in fact .. regardless of price .. they can only produce so much..

    So .. once you hit the price spike .. which going from 2% to 10% EV sales will do - only then will miners start getting serious about a new mine .. at which point .. you are 5 years away from more product coming online.

    OK ..so what do the EV makers do in the meantime ??? .. you simply can't make the number of cars you want ..because the materials are not available .. at any price .. sans unrealistic stupidity.

    Going from 1% to 2% over the last 10 years caused the price of these metals to rocket up .. we have 7 years to 2030 .. and the pundits are claiming EV's will be 50% of market by 2030.

    This is just monstrous stupidity/ignorance ..
    OH Joy .. and in doing so you soaked up all of the easy market .. and you have 100 Million left to go to get to 50%

    So 2021 was last year .. = 5 years increase the number of EV's by 800,000. Excuse me .. but how are we going to add another 100 million to that number in 7 years ? how are we going to add another 5 million in 5 years .. representing an increase of 600% in the rate of purchase of EV's

    Not happening
     
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    The point is that their numbers are laid out in a way that you can check them out.

    For example, they use $2.44 as the price of a gallon of unleaded. And, they state what electricity rate they are using.

    It's a good framework for figuring this out.
     
  8. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I hope I wasn't referring to you specifically. There would be no point in that.

    I do believe most people use stuff that is available and productive for them without really worrying about where the constituent parts came from.

    We've had a significant history of military conflict over oil. And, it's a major factor in international relations, causing us to support nations such as Saudi Arabia.
     
  9. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I like your cites!!

    To provide batteries, Tesla bought and operates a mine and has built gigantic battery plants in the US, Europe, and China.

    There are auto manufacturers who are moving toward EVs (like all US Auto), and who are depending on other battery manufacturers.

    New battery types are being designed - it's an incredibly active industry.

    For example, a corporation in China has developed a sodium-ion battery that does not contain lithium, cobalt or nickel. This company is one of the larger battery producers, valued at $200B.

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/...tl-touts-new-sodium-ion-batteries-2021-07-29/

    Of course, we'll see how fast EVs can be built. But, there are some truly huge and majorly automated factories being built. And, there is an increasing number of new EV auto companies.

    I think the challenge you describe is still going to be significant.
     
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  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe driverless cars are here yet. At least some of these wrecks seem to me to be Tesla's fault.

    Tesla seems to be shooting for a car that can go anywhere.

    Others are taking different strategies, such as allowing automatic driving on roads that have been carefully photographed and mapped out, or allowing automatic driving on highways only.
     
  11. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    It works out up front costs before you even drive one off the lot for any car at any price. Pick one.

    Do you think many Tesla owners will put 250,000 miles on one? I don't, but I was being very liberal; the costs per mile for the average EV owner are going to be much higher in real life.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2022
  12. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    The same cultists peddling EV's are the same cultists killing the mining of the main raw materials for all these EV's they say are going to be flooding the market n stuff, keeping them from getting any cheaper. They are either stupid, or they're lying and they just want to get all those deplorable proles out of their cars and into sardine cans on rails and living in public housing towers. That way the elites can have the roads to themselves.

    More EV's will require more power plants, and the cultists impede building them as well. They have no coherent plan at all, just 'activism n stuff'. They will one day be pushed aside and we will be building nuke plants again, and with that will come much cheaper hydrogen processing.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2022
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  13. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Oooh! Boy!

    The price of Lithium is about to fall thanks to multiple new mines across the globe, Big batteries are currently being added to grids thanks to the runaway success of Hornsdale big battery in South Australia

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-29/australian-miners-powering-global-electrification/100318108

    Two new Vanadium mines have opened in Qld to meet future production of Vanadium Redox batteries for grid storage

    America is missing out NOT being part of the green energy revolution
     
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  14. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    far more significant than you know :) Throwing out the latest lab experiments you don't understand .. with no context or commentary on how this would change the calculation .. is silly. Not knowing what your links say .. "frightening"

    So are these cars going to run on the Lithium-Sodium battery pack or just sodium ? - we have no performance details what kind of a niche this is going to be able to fill .. except the Energy density is lower than LFP .. which means these "cars" will be tiny little things .. which is fine .. but only serving a small niche. in the market. Note for example how "Iceland" is near the top .. these cars are good for such a niche .. where folks can do with these toy cars .. which is great .. but this situation exists in only a small number of regions .. with low populations .. condensed into small areas ..

    We could mirror such a thing - "couldn't we" ? Well .. kind of .. but we would have to completely re-engineer and rebuild our cities and towns from the ground up .. and that is not going to happen.
     
  15. Farnsworth

    Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    lol sure; if it falls it will be because it isn't selling, and that will be because production predictions among the manufacturers have been scaled back. Musk just laid off 10,000. lol

    And do please name all these giant 'green energy' countries'; most I bet rely on imports from the dirty countries, like Red China and India.Those two are building a whole lot of new coal plants to make goods for 'green revolution' fantasists.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2022
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  16. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I think the main point is that there are major corporations that are working to develop new battery types. There is even work toward depending more on capacitance than we already do.

    Tiny cars, rebuilt cities - ???
     
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  17. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And good that they are developing new battery types.. because we are not there technologically, but that is not even close to the main point. The main point is that we are not yet there .. and the clock is ticking... CO2 emissions increased from 22 Billion/year to 36 Billion over the last 25 years.. and the annual emission rate continues to increase .. and the clock is ticking.

    These fantasies about some happy future .. have not stopped this increase .. nor will achieving technological capability stop this increase ... this capability we have yet to achieve ... so what is the point of relaying this fantasy if not to deflect from reality in front of us.

    Reality is that you want to go to California .. but we are driving towards New York. Emissions are "Increasing" not "Decreasing" So this in this fantasy of zero emissions .. we are still driving the opposite direction.

    and time is ticking - Concurrent with the increase in CO2 over last 25 years of industrialization .. has been a massive increase in Ocean Pollution .. yet you don't care about that .. as if you did you would not be supporting The Biden-Blue-Greta Enviro Policy which seeks to increase Ocean Pollution and CO2 .. by transferring out pollution problems to other nations .. "Not in my back Yard - Dump it in the Ocean" environmental policy.

    25 years we have .. maybe less.. The Oceans can not withstand another 25 years like the last .. yet Ocean Pollution is "Increasing" not "Decreasing"

    You are not comprehending what "Decreasing" means in the context of the conversation. Decreasing is not some fantasy about a time when we have achieved zero emissions .. Decreasing is not talking about this great new technology we might have in the future . and are working towards .... Decreasing is not supporting mindless environmental policy which seeks to increase.. not decrease.

    Yet this is all you have been doing .. and expressing - and this is a big problem .. as you are not the only one.

    Whales in the North .. Mercury levels are so high experts are saying that neurological impairement is imminent.
    Dead zones .. from 100 to over 400 over last 25 years .... one the size of the State of New Jersey .. fish, corral, marine life can't live .. can't breath due to lack of oxygen .. Sargassum epidemic happening all over the Carribean .. other similar epidemics in other regions.

    These tales of "New Technology" don't change reality ... and don't even have the capability to change reality .. turn the equation from increasing to decreasing .. as the increase due to other factors ..is greater than any decrease achieved via "better batteries" should we manage to achieve that goal - which we have yet to do.

    That is the point. Fairy tales and hopeful hope .. are not the solution.
     
  18. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Looking at the pie charts, electricity is a huge piece of the carbon monoxide so going to more electric vehicles, are we not replacing one pollution source with another?
     
  19. roorooroo

    roorooroo Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    100% agree. For example, I still want manually rolled up windows because the electric windows are just more junk to break and cost a ton to repair. What I want in a vehicle is something that can get me and whatever I am hauling from point A to point B. And when I do get a new vehicle (which is very seldom), you won't find me showing it off to all the neighbors, putting pictures of it on facebook (everybody look how cool I am), and getting all giddy about my latest purchase. Because a vehicle is just a damn tool, not something to drool over and stroke my ego with.
     
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  20. Nightmare515

    Nightmare515 Ragin' Cajun Staff Member Past Donor

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    Exactly. It's always funny to me at work because my parking spot is in a row next to about 10 newer model full sized pickups with all the bells and whistles. Nice shiny F-150 Platinums, Silverado LTZ's, Ram Bighorns, etc. Then in the parking spot that folks think is empty in between them all is my faded red 30 year old little stick shift 4x4 Ranger. The only truck in that entire row that's actually used as a truck and not an oversized glorified SUV that I'm afraid to get dirt on.

    They always poke fun at me and say surely I can afford a better truck...Yeah I can, the kicker is I'm actually the highest paid person on that row by far. I don't want a huge AI computer controlled land ship that has to be taken to a specialized service expert every time one of those gizmo's breaks in the thing. The reason they need like 5 different cameras all over the place to help drive and park the thing is because they are the size of a damn tank and almost nobody even uses them for their intended purpose. The only thing most of these folks haul with their 3/4 ton trucks is their kids when dropping them off to school.

    Oh well, it's their money they can do as they please and manufacturers are simply catering to what the masses want. Folks want all this high tech computer crap all over the place which is why you can't even find a new truck without a huge touch screens and AI smart climate controlled air conditioner because folks are too lazy to turn a damn knob.
     
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  21. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Sure. And, I'd like to see a real analysis of that.

    Those pie charts are interesting, of course.

    But I don't believe they compare the emissions from oil in ICE transportation (cracking to gas, burning in ICEs) and the emissions of gas fired power plants in creating equivalent energy in an EV.

    ICE's can't have the same level of equipment for limiting greenhouse gas per unit energy that point source power plants have. There are other benefits of moving away from ICEs - like the health and safety benefits of not having that pollution right where people live.

    Plus, more can be done to limit the output of point source power plants - improving carbon capture, moving away from coal, adding in clean energy, building nuclear power, increasing home solar power, etc.
     
  22. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    If solar was really effective every house in the world would have them, unfortunately the only ones that do are where the government pays for them. Truth is they aren't that efficient, and the ROI's rarely work out. Now my company buys several thousand a year for my products but and it takes a 30x30 to keep a 12v battery charged. The left needs to get on board with Nuclear or the EVs are going to become a disaster for the grid and we will gain little from a pollution reduction perspective.
     
  23. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Oh! Dear! Really not keeping up with international trends are we?
     
  24. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Again someone NOT tracking the international trends.
     
  25. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Again not making sense with you're one liners.
     

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