Polar Bears Are Thriving

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Jack Hays, Jan 1, 2021.

  1. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Climate alarmists have tried to make polar bears their "poster animals" for the alleged menace of climate change. But they reckoned without the resilience of the bears themselves. Although alarmists predicted doom for the bears because of declining sea ice, in fact the bear population has continued to grow. This has been well documented by Susan J. Crockford, who has refuted the doomsday claims of the polar bear "old boys club." For this, of course, she has been vilified.
    Global polar bear abundance ‘best guess’ estimate is 39,000 (26,000-58,000)
    This is a sticky post link to my March 2019 essay on polar bear numbers at 2018. View it here.

    Top six polar bear stories of 2020
    Posted on December 31, 2020 | Comments Offon Top six polar bear stories of 2020
    Here are the six most important polar bear stories I wrote about in 2020 that are worth reading if you missed them.



    [​IMG]These posts cover new evidence that polar bears are thriving (including more populations stable or increasing) despite recent declines in summer sea ice blamed on climate change, an explanation of why the simplistic ‘less ice, fewer bears’ is false and a short post that shows a much-publicized new model predicting future extinction of polar bears is scientifically implausible. Honourable mention goes to a story refuting the claim that Alaskan polar bear cubs are at risk from oil exploration in coastal Wildlife Refuge.

    Continue reading →
     
  2. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Simplistic view of the issue. It's not just about sea ice.

    Polar bear hunting was outlawed in the US in 2008 and curtailed in Canada and the bears have moved off the ice floes and into the more
    southern areas. Different dynamic than when claims of the bear disappearing back in 2000.

    But climate change deniers will claim it's all about the weather because that's all they can see - so, whatever.
     
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  3. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The US outlawed polar bear hunting in 1972. Canada has curtailed but not outlawed hunting.
    The forecast of polar bears' doom because of diminishing sea ice was put forward in 2007. It was refuted by Crockford in 2017. You are entitled to you own opinions but not to your own facts.

    Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here

    Crockford, S.J. 2017. Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). PeerJ Preprints 2 March 2017. Doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.2737v3 Open access. https://peerj.com/preprints/2737/
     
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  4. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    And where is your count of actual numbers? you have linked to some (probable) AstroTurf site ignoring all the other climate indicators

    upload_2021-1-2_7-4-57.png
     
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  5. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    I linked to a site I trust. Please notice your post does not contradict my link.
     
  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Arctic report card 2020 highlights the huge benefit of less summer sea ice: more food
    Posted on January 7, 2021 | Comments Offon Arctic report card 2020 highlights the huge benefit of less summer sea ice: more food
    As well as summarizing sea ice changes, NOAA’s 2020 Arctic Report Card features two reports that document the biggest advantage of much less summer sea ice than there was before 2003: increased primary productivity. Being at the top of the Arctic food chain, polar bears have been beneficiaries of this phenomenon because the Arctic marine mammals they depend on for food – seals, walrus and bowhead whales – have been thriving despite less ice in summer.

    [​IMG]Continue reading
     
  7. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Lots of bears, including one in the cabin.

    Polar bears can come ashore any time of year and cause trouble: a timely reminder

    Posted on January 14, 2021 | Polar bears can come ashore any time of year and cause trouble: a timely reminder
    If you thought polar bears were only a danger to people in summer when sea ice is low, think again. Bears do occasionally come ashore early to mid-winter looking for food because hunting is difficult and they are approaching their leanest time of year. They simply walk from the ice onto land – often close to communities – because many things associated with modern human living are food attractants for polar bears.

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    . . . . .
     
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  8. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Polar bears are doing just fine.

    "Climate change" is a meaningless buzzword. We do not know whether the Earth is warming, cooling, or staying the same temperature. It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth to any usable accuracy. It is not possible to measure global CO2 content to any usable accuracy. It is not possible for a colder gas (atmospheric CO2) to heat a warmer surface (Earth's surface). It is not possible to measure global sea level. It is not possible to measure the amount of global sea ice.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2021
  9. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Active Member

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    He doesn't seem to realize that total polar bear population has not gone downward for a few decades now, didn't go down even after the big drop in summer arctic ice cover of the last 15 years either.
     
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  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Attenborough’s cliff-dying walrus convinced elite Davos influencers of a global climate emergency
    Posted on January 24, 2021 | Comments Offon Attenborough’s cliff-dying walrus convinced elite Davos influencers of a global climate emergency
    For the past two years, the Netflix/Attenborough ruse to blame climate change for walruses falling from a high cliff to their deaths seemed like a silly PR stunt. But it appears the film’s real purpose was to convince a far more important audience than paying Netflix customers that a global ‘climate emergency’ was going on: the elite influencers and world leaders who attended the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2019, where the dying walrus film clip was introduced and interpreted to the audience by Sir David Attenborough himself.

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    Continue reading
     
  11. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Polar bear sea ice habitat highs and lows in early February
    Posted on February 10, 2021 | Comments Offon Polar bear sea ice habitat highs and lows in early February
    Sea ice across the Arctic in the first week of February is a mix of highs and lows. Bering Sea is back up to almost normal coverage, as is the Barents Sea. However, ice coverage on the East Coast of Canada is the lowest its been in four decades. This is not yet a worry for polar bears because harp seals don’t pup until mid-March in this region so there is at least four weeks of potential ice growth that can happen before the seals are forced to pup on much reduced ice – where polar bears are sure to find them.

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    Here is a close-up look at sea ice conditions by region at the edges of the Arctic. Continue reading
     
  12. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Fact: polar bears are thriving despite sea ice loss according to the scientific literature
    Posted on February 19, 2021 | Comments Offon Fact: polar bears are thriving despite sea ice loss according to the scientific literature
    Is Facebook now an expert on polar bear conservation status? Apparently they have decreed themselves the last word for online content. There is a plan afoot to label anything that says polar bears are not being harmed by recent sea ice declines as ‘disinformation’ – but on whose authority? Thanks to Josh for the cartoon below.

    [​IMG]

    A new section of the Climate Science Information Center, launching alongside the labelling trial, debunks common myths such as the false claim that polar bear populations are not suffering due to global heating, or the widespread belief that excess carbon emissions help plant life. Facebook is working with climate communication experts from around the world, including at the University of Cambridge, to produce the content.

    Ah, they’re consulting ‘climate communication experts‘! Those experts surely must be up on all the latest papers and not trusting the word of obviously biased conservations organizations like the WWF or PBI whose real reason for existence is the generation of as much money in donations as possible?

    The peer reviewed literature supports the claim that polar bears are currently thriving despite recent ice declines – especially in the Chukchi and Barents Seas – regardless of what computer model predictions say about what might happen in the future. This is a fact, not a ‘myth’. See my paper from 2017 and my 2019 book for most of the citations (Crockford 2017, 2019) and others in the reference list below. Check them out yourself before you believe Facebook. Ask me for any paper you’d like to see via the ‘contact me’ form and I’ll send it along. Also, look for my State of the Polar Bear Report 2020 next week.

    Continue reading
     
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  13. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    New Study Finds A 79% Rise In Polar Bear Sightings Since 2005 As Their Arctic Habitat Dramatically Expands
    By Kenneth Richard on 22. February 2021

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    Research on polar bear sightings using a systematic “regional marine mammal sightings programme” during 2005-2018 reveals there were 1,433 polar bears sightings from 2005-2011 compared to 2,569 during 2012-2018 around Svalbard.
    The perspective that polar bears are endangered by global warming because reduced sea ice limits their seal-hunting opportunities is again contradicted by real-world observations.

    New research (Bengtsson et al., 2021) suggests marine animals and polar bears have both been far more active and abundant in recent years compared to the past as their habitat expands around Svalbard. Not only have seal and walrus sightings risen by 50-100% since 2005, but polar bears were nearly 80% more likely to be spotted by observers during 2012-2018 when compared to sightings from 2012-2018. . . .
     
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  14. James California

    James California Well-Known Member Donor

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    ~ Obviously somebody forgot to tell the Polar bears about global roasting. Wait until they find out !! :eyepopping:

    idea-1-final.jpg
     
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  15. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member

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    So we agree that sea ice is reducing? Interesting paradox for a denier....
     
  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Not at all. Crockford's central insight was to decouple polar bear population and well-being from sea ice extent. That earned her the enmity of the old boys' network of polar bear specialists because she explicitly refuted their forecast of a declining bear population in step with diminished sea ice. They have been frustrated because all the data support her.
    As for sea ice, I suspect that's cyclical so I don't worry about it.
     
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  17. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member

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    I don't mind positive stories about climate change. It's a silver lining to temper the myriad of problems we are (already) facing due to warming. For example in Australia (my home), from our northern coral reefs to our southern forest habitats.

    Oh, how I wish that climate change consequences fitted my personal feelings, suspicions or beliefs.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2021
  18. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Australia's reefs are fine, and cyclical sea ice is a view I was led to by the data.
     
  19. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member

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    Sure thing.
     
  20. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Indeed. I assume you're aware of James Cook University's ongoing attempt to suppress academic freedom in their actions against Professor Peter Ridd. Ridd's offense was questioning the reef catastrophe narrative. Meanwhile:


    New Study: Coral Bleaching ‘Repeatedly Occurred’ Throughout The Warmer-Than-Today Mid-Holocene
    By Kenneth Richard on 18. January 2021

    Share this...
    Mid-Holocene South China Sea maximum temperatures were ~3.5°C warmer (33.5°C vs. today’s 29.9°C) about 5000 yrs ago, when corals experienced an “optimum coral growth period”. There were “numerous coral bleaching episodes” even when temperatures weren’t as high, as coral bleaching is naturally occurring.
    Key points from a new study (Wang et al., 2021) that throws cold water on the claims that modern coral bleaching is unprecedented, unusual, or unnatural.

    • “Compared with the average Sr/Ca-SST of the 1990s, the Sr/Ca-SST between 6800 and 5000 B.P. was 0.9°C–0.5°C higher.”

    • “A warmer climate makes the mid-Holocene an optimum coral growth period when corals grew abundantly (Clark et al., 2018; Yan et al., 2019).”

    • “During the period 3434–4568 B.P., the climate was colder than 6.8–5.0 ka B.P., but there were numerous coral bleaching episodes.”

    • “[C]oral bleaching caused by thermal stress has been repeated over the long-term scale of the mid-late Holocene period and severe or prolonged coral bleaching events can lead to massive coral death.”

    • “[T]he mid-late Holocene coral thermal bleaching events are a natural response to abnormal temperature.”

    • There is “evidence of rapid recovery after bleaching” and “coral bleaching events have occurred repeatedly in the mid-late Holocene during times of high SST, and corals have proved to be resilient despite this environmental stress.”. . . .
     
  21. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a retired civil servant, so I don't have time to jump through all your hoops.

    Seas are warming and coral is dying. You don't care. I do. Neither affects this process.
     
  22. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Deleted.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2021
  23. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Fly-Past Coral Surveys, And

    February 11, 2021 By jennifer 9 Comments

    [​IMG]
    This morning, Peter Ridd’s legal team will be asking the High Court to hear his appeal against his sacking by James Cook University. The High Court does not agree to hear most cases. They consider cases that have a wider legal implication. His … [Read more...]

    Reef Heresy? And the Importance of Asking Questions
    December 20, 2020 By jennifer

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    I am so privileged to have written the introduction to Peter Ridd’s new book, ‘Reef Heresy?’. In it I explain that it is of great concern to both Peter, and myself, that those who claim the Great Barrier Reef to be in terminal decline are so … [Read more...]

    Half the Corals Dead – But Not in Real Life

    October 15, 2020 By jennifer

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    The claim that half the corals of the Great Barrier Reef are dead is based on a new method using ‘proxies’ (not a direct measure of coral cover), applied to badly cyclone damaged reefs, just after a major coral bleaching event – from which the corals … [Read more...]

    Prof Peter Ridd, bleaching is not new, like coral spawning, we just discovered it the 1980s
    Coral spawning is visible from the air | Vimeo Biopixel

    From the Bolt Report, Professor Peter Ridd points out how little we know about the history of bleaching of corals. Corals have been around for 200 million years, but we only discovered coral bleaching and coral spawning in the 1980s, even though the synchronized slicks are so vast they are visible in satellite shots. When discussing whether the Great Barrier Reef going to die he says “everything that I look at says the opposite”.

    Professor Peter Ridd (James Cook Uni)

    “Terry Hughes is on record as saying Bleaching is a new phenomena — it never happened before the 1980s. It is an absurdity –we just discovered it to science in the 1980s.

    There is another thing the reef does that is equally spectacular — and that’s coral spawning — three days after the full moon in November every year the whole barrier reef, every coral virtually, releases egg bundles that float to the surface and from the air we can see these massive slicks of coral spawn on the surface. It’s incredible. we only discovered that in 1982.

    Are we really suggesting that […]
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2021
  24. James California

    James California Well-Known Member Donor

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    ~ If one does not care why would they spend time on a website in a debate ? Everyone cares - but not everyone agrees.
     
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  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    State of the Polar Bear Report 2020

    It’s not a myth: 2020 was another good year for polar bears

    • Date: 26/02/21
    • Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation
    London, 26 February: A prominent Canadian zoologist says that Facebook’s polar bear claims are gravely out of date and 2020 was another good year for polar bears.


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    In the State of the Polar Bear Report 2020, published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) to coincide with International Polar Bear Day (27 February), zoologist Dr. Susan Crockford explains that while the climate narrative insists that polar bear populations are declining due to reduced sea ice, population surveys and the scientific literature don’t support such a conclusion.

    Crockford clarifies that the IUCN’s 2015 Red List assessment for polar bears, which Facebook uses as an authority for ‘fact checking’, is seriously out of date. New and compelling evidence shows that bears in regions with profound summer ice loss are doing well. . . .
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2021 at 9:41 AM
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