I've been to where America was born, as far in as that velvet rope would allow me to in Independence Hall in Philadelphia, PA in 2001; We stopped trying to get the US in the war of 1812, it's now 2017.
Polls are good, but they often lack depth, and they're also very often biased. I also think most French people are in favor of staying in the EU, and the polls show this. But, polls don't show the value of the decision of each individual, which is where election results often don't match up with the polls, especially if there's a low voter turnout. So, do the people that prefer the EU, prefer it as much as the people that dislikes it dislike it? I don't think France will leave the EU, but I also didn't think the Brits would leave it. The "meh, the EU is fine enough, I guess"-people may turn up at election day, or they'll stay home. The EU-fanboys will turn up, but so will the EU-haters. Most people are somewhere in the middle, and the middle might be slightly skewed in EU's favor. But the people in the middle also don't care that much either way, so a lot of them will not bother to show up to vote, in contrast to the EU-lovers/haters. The hardline Euroskeptics are more numerous than the hardline Federalists, and these are the groups that matter if the middle ground don't bother to show up. I'm no fan of Le Pen, but if the EU crumbles, there's at least some good coming out of her victory. Doubt she'll win though.
Spot on. Depth of feeling is a factor polls can't show. If asked I can give opinion on any number of subjects I don't really care much about. Not enough to do anything about.
I wonder how many millionaires will be leaving your country in 2017? We're at about 22,000 of them in the last two years. Yeah France is going to hell in a handbasket fast.
Bunk. The French polls have been consistent for many years - that is, the French want to remain in the EU. And this was true even when local politicians put to referendum some measures that would have strengthened the alignment with the EU, which the French refused. People like you refuse to understand the importance of history. Anyone who reads about European history know full well how much internal wars over the past two centuries have cost dearly in terms of lives lost. Europeans don't want any more of that, particularly the younger generations. (Most of whom are now well embedded in France's political structure.) This photo most typifies that will to bury-the-hatchet between two countries who were in the past habitually at war with one another:
That's a canard invented by the Brussels and member states' elite. Wars begin when populaces are discontented, which discontentment is usually prompted by impoverishment and deprivation, and hitherto, thanks to the vast sums of Euros the beneficiary member states have been receiving from the EU at the expense of the net contributing countries, they've been perfectly happy. But when the entire project implodes - and it surely will - the populaces aren't going to be very happy about it, and social unrest will result. I sincerely hope that doesn't happen, because it could easily lead to war. So instead of the ill-conceived and doomed project having prevented wars, it will cause one?
"People like you"? You honestly don't know jack **** about "people like me". I think I have a fairly good understanding of history. And yes, the polls in France have been pretty accurate so far, and I actually think they're accurate this time too. France won't leave. I was merely pointing out a big flaw in relying on polls in GENERAL. Polls are a quantitative measure of opinions, but they're not a qualitative measure, so the value behind an opinion is not recorded. This is less relevant in democracies with a higher voter turnout than in democracies with a lower voter turnout though. The EU didn't stop future wars between France, Germany and Britain. NATO did. The common enemy Soviet Union did. The lessons learned from WW2 did. Nuclear weapons did. If you think the EU alone is responsible for peace in Europe, you're historically ignorant. There's lots of reasons Europe hasn't gone mental again after WW2, and the EU has done SOME good in this regard, but they're NOT the reason alone. You're honestly so blinded by your federalist ideology, that you can't see reason, whenever that conflicts with your worldview.
It is not wanting a future without your country Vs. the want to make a super country. That's all it is. However the latter opponent should stop watching television from Hollywood wishing it was the USA.
I'll take that scare and raise you one. There will be wars with it. Wars caused by it. Not least war with me if they don't stop trying to rule here. Force begets force, not peace. Hundreds of millions of people do not wish to be EU citizens. Allow them not to be or war is coming.
Relax there "Kunta, we're free now African" Roots (1977), - Theresa May's already started Article 50, she's done her job and called this election.
I don't count my chickens before they hatch. We are still in the EU. An election has been called so what May has done can be reversed. She voted to remain after all. Campaigned for it, as did the bulk of all people standing for election. No other country that has voted to leave the EU, actually has done so. If we do so, it will be first for democracy to triumph over it. But it's not just 15 million of us in the UK who don't want it. Look at the figures for France in the poll above. That is tens of millions of others there, and the same will be found in all member states. Millions upon millions of people who have had "EU citizenship" forced upon them against their wills. Hundreds of millions of them united against one thing. My jets are not running cool. Just getting hotter and hotter. I'm a prepper. Raised to be ready for war. I've got my farm. my water supply my food supply, I can live the stone age life. I'm both armed and military trained. Lessons learnt in WW2 have been passed on to me. War will come again. Human nature is such. Nationality, rulership, sovereignty. Justice. Invasion. All the traditional causes for war are part of this debate. They killed an MP in the street like Ghadaffi. This is a hot issue. Not a cold one. Take close look at Ukraine. How they responded to the EU debate. Hot hot. Hot like chile powder. Chile powder in your eye.
Because millionaires left France? If you only knew how many Yanks, Russians, and Brits have bought and are still buying expensive houses on the Cote d'Azur, you would not be thinking such. France is THE PLACE TO LIVE IN EUROPE, especially in the warm southern part. Do yourself a favor - cut the BS and come live in France to see for yourself ...
If the Frog right wing gain much more ground that's France out. When the UK takes their 12+% away from the EU, Greece will probably be forced our due to lack of cash in the remaining nations to pay their bills for them. Italy and Spain might not be far behind.
Ireland is most at risk from Brexit. Followed by Belgium. Ireland joined to get free trade with the UK. We are Belgiums main market too. Ireland like France has a history of voting "no" to the EU in referendums. If there is to be a domino effect, that is my prediction as to where it will start. France is going to have a tough time competing with our agricultural sector now. They too will take a hit. Plus their EU contributions are about to go up massively to compensate for the end of ours. The less the EU is working for them, well, the less reason they have to want it.
I actually agree a lot with you in this thread, but your ideological blinders stops you from seeing it. I respect your federalist stance, although I disagree with it. I understand it, because I respect it. While you lack the respect for any other stance than the federalist stance, so you'll never understand any other stance than the federalists, but will keep writing off anti-federalist stances as "dumb nationalism", or something along these lines. France is a great country to live in, and the EU hasn't destroyed France, like some of my "euroskeptic compatriots" may say. France will also probably not leave the EU, and I don't view them as any lesser educated or morally flawed people for choosing to stay either. I will not say it's THE country to live in in Europe though, that all depends on what you want in a country. But it's great, no doubt. From my perspective, Norway is THE best country in Europe, although we have a lot to learn from the Swiss when it comes to agriculture, democracy, and delegation of local power, the Icelandic when it comes to preservation of language, the Czechs when it comes to civil rights, and the Brits when it comes to health care and education. Probably some stuff we could learn from the French too, but I don't know enough about France to come up with anything, and you probably don't know enough about Norway to come up with anything we could learn from you too (correct me if I'm wrong here). France is a beautiful country, and the population are sensible and with good sense of ethics. But so is the US, and they got Trump as president, against the prediction of every major credible poll. Don't underestimate the really pissed off minority in any country. Don't write them off as dumb, uneducated, mislead or brainwashed. There will always be an anti-federalist smarter than you, just like there will always be a federalist smarter than me.
No, because 22,000 millionaires left France in TWO YEARS and took their money with them. Rich people can buy houses there but the only tax they're paying, to my knowledge, is property taxes. You've got candidates running now that want a 100% cap on income over 400k. France is sliding into communism. Hopefully the Vichy French lose again and Le Pen gains control. It's really your only hope.
Of course they pay ONLY property and sales taxes, because they have no income in France. They also pay a neat (not so tiny) tax on the purchase of their megabuck property. (Just ask Putin's daughter who bought a place close to Bordeaux two years ago!) That's the candidate Melanchon, and he has about as much chance of getting elected president as you do. Yeah, right - when you sprout wings LePen will get elected. The French voted for her father in the first round twice, who was soundly defeated in the definitive second round. Same thing will happen to Marine. You are soooo out-of-touch with France and French politics ...
