Pres. Biden Approval/Disapproval polling (2021-2025 )

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Jan 29, 2021.

  1. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    May 25, 2012
    Messages:
    55,518
    Likes Received:
    27,043
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You could always read the questions that the pollsters asked. They do publish those.
     
  2. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2017
    Messages:
    44,677
    Likes Received:
    12,448
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    As long as the reason you're "wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out there" isn't the product of a malignant social philosophy, it's a legitimate viewpoint that should be heard.

    Before we get down to prescribing solutions, I believe we should identify problems. I think this is creating political and social problems:

    upload_2021-4-8_13-52-55.jpeg

    The solution?
     
  3. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2013
    Messages:
    13,390
    Likes Received:
    17,127
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    This is an average compiled over all policies.

    The sad thing for you is that Biden probably won't be a history-making President, but given the one before him, he's guaranteed two terms pretty easily.
     
    WalterSobchak likes this.
  4. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,321
    Likes Received:
    38,993
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    What are you talking about he is struggling to just finish one term.
     
    Matthewthf likes this.
  5. Matthewthf

    Matthewthf Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Messages:
    6,923
    Likes Received:
    4,269
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    How is he guaranteed a second term?
     
  6. Matthewthf

    Matthewthf Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2016
    Messages:
    6,923
    Likes Received:
    4,269
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    The thread is about Biden's aproval ratings but you posted about vaccinations. By your rules you are off topic and should go back and read the OP again or state what off topic stuff you find acceptable.
     
  7. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Messages:
    41,184
    Likes Received:
    16,180
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Off-topic really doesn't merit this level of snark.
     
  8. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Messages:
    41,184
    Likes Received:
    16,180
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Last edited: May 23, 2021
    DEFinning likes this.
  9. DEFinning

    DEFinning Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2020
    Messages:
    15,971
    Likes Received:
    7,607
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    This is a ridiculous contention, that no one has made unwarranted, negative remarks about any president before Trump. Every president has his critics; some give more cause for them than others, but it is a part of the mix for practically every political approval poll, ever.

    Naturally, press coverage affects one's approval rating. Again, this is all par for the course, and the reason why intelligent politicians, like Ronald Reagan, don't gratuitously insult the press & call them the enemy of the people. Instead, they actually try to seem likable. A good humor has muted criticism more than a few times, on both sides of the political spectrum (though, granted, not recently).
     
  10. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2021
    Messages:
    5,643
    Likes Received:
    5,525
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Trump was not Mr. Nice guy and called them out as the corrupt institutions they were. Today for a conservative to win he must "out evil" the democrat thought machine.
    Today what we have is a "free corrupt press". There will always be outliers, but due to media concentration, a very few voices are dictating what we read and see.
     
  11. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    9,744
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Blah-blah-blah and more blah!

    He's better liked than the sick-in-the-head Donald Dork - and that is all that matters for the moment. As the country recovers from Covid, which Mr. Dork let fester in the last year of his "non-administration".

    Given that Mr. Dork handed over to Biden one very-large piece of Economic Miasma - perhaps the worst in American history ....
     
  12. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    9,744
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    TRUE SENTIMENT

    Good stuff! If employed with "sagest". Numbers in politics are not always as truly predictive as we might hope. Because the "matter under issue" is of a highly variable statistic called "political public-opinion".

    Which seems to be a highly variable statistical-value. That is, in the US political-outlook is more variable a sentiment than elsewhere. And the reason for that?

    Because the younger generation in both the US and the EU grow-up differently. Political outlook in Europe declares itself far earlier than the US. Methinks. (Which is my reflection based upon having talked to both groups on each side of the Atlantic.

    Behind any electoral outcome (predictable or not) is the True Sentiment of the "the people". And that sentiment is very, very clearly changeable according to their "Financial Existence". All that I am saying is that if one lives at the Poverty-Threshold income-level of $25K (for a family of four) or at a megabuck yearly - well, fundamental attitudes (likes and dislikes) will be clearly very, very different. Which can color both our political- and social-outlook* in life.

    And whyzzat? Because we are not taught sufficiently well what "economies" can-and-do color certain of our key-sentiments in life. Political outlook being one of them**!

    *By that I mean not only one's political-sentiments but also their general societal-behavior. I suggest Donald-Dork as a key-example.
    **I am not sure how deeply Civics courses are a key factor in our "political outlook" - meaning the fundamental difference between the two-major parties and how different their beliefs reflect into our lives.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2021
  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Hey thanks, I am really behind on the numbers right now, which may mean a good thing: it means that I really don't have a horse in the race to try to prove that Biden is doing well or is not doing well. Probably by the end of July, 2021, I will be all caught up. Been very busy with the Covid-19 numbers in the last months.
     
  14. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    9,744
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Extremely difficult with the last occupant.

    A PotUS who HAD lost the Popular-Vote and in any other democracy on earth would have been asked to take a long walk off a short-pier.

    As ridiculous as a law of 1803 can be that instituted the Electoral College, it seems there is no necessity whatsoever to change it!

    Wow! From the land that had created democracy from the very beginning. It has elected PotUS the loser of the popular-vote FIVE TIMES in its history.

    But, hey! That's American democracy ... !
     
  15. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2014
    Messages:
    16,900
    Likes Received:
    5,678
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Let's compare Biden to other presidents from 20 Jan to 14 June of their first year. I'll make no predictions of the future.
    Biden has ranged from 53-56%, 54% as of today. That's almost a straight line.
    Trump has ranged from 38-44%, 38% as of 14 June 2017, that's pretty steady.
    Obama had ranged from 59-67%, 59% as of 14 Jun 2009, a slow steady decline from inauguration day. Obama would fall below 50% by the end of August.
    G.W. Bush ranged from 53-62%, 55% as of 14 Jun 2001, Bush had some spikes unlike the first three, from 62% in Feb, down to 53% in Mar, back up to 62% in Apr, down to 53% in May ending at 55% on 14 Jun 2001.
    Bill Clinton ranged 39-57, 39% on 14 Jun 1993, Bill had one spike, from 51% middle of Feb up to 59% end of Feb, then a steady decline until he hit 39% on 14 June.
    G.H.W. Bush ranged from 51-70%, 70% on 14 Jun 1989. Bush's low water mark of 51% was on inauguration day. Bush had a spike from 56% 7 May and steadily rose to 70% on 14 June.
    Reagan ranged 51-68%, 59% on 14 Jun 1981, like Bush, Reagan's low water mark of 51% was on inauguration day. He then steadily rose from 51% up to 68% 11 May before slipping down to 59%
    Carter ranged 62-75%, at 63% 14 Jun 1977, Carter rose from 66% on inauguration day up to 75% 9 May 1977 before slipping down to 63% on 14 June.

    What does all of this mean, probably nothing. But good for comparison of Biden to other presidents during the same time period of their presidency. Carter, G.H.W. Bush and Trump all lost reelection. Carter 63% and Bush 70% had extra high overall job approval ratings at this juncture of their presidency, Trump was extra low. Bill Clinton despite a 39% overall job approval rating went on to win reelection easily in 1996,

    It seemed Biden's 3 point range from low to high, Trump's 6 point, Obama's 8 points, G.W. Bush's 9 points unique. But perhaps it was the other presidents that were unique, Clinton's 18 points, G.H.W. Bush's 19 points range, Carter's 13 point range.

    Then again, the lack of range for our most recent presidents could be a result of the polarization, the great divide and the mega, ultra high partisanship of this modern political era we've entered into. Then again, maybe not. Perhaps the range thing, enough time just hasn't passed for there to be a big fluctuation. Outside of Trump, all presidents have had huge fluctuation in their overall job approval rating over their one or two terms as president.

    Regardless, folks can compare Biden to other presidents and draw their own conclusions.
     
    Statistikhengst likes this.
  16. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    9,744
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Average price of victory for entry into either house of Congress (from here):
    And I'll bet most of that money went to TV-stations ... !
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2021
  17. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2014
    Messages:
    16,900
    Likes Received:
    5,678
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Also here:

    2020 election to cost $14 billion, blowing away spending records

    https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/cost-of-2020-election-14billion-update/

    And that doesn't count the two Georgia senate runoffs in which another billion plus dollars were spent, 90% of that money coming from out of state. I feel that our two senators now belong to all those out of staters, not Georgians. It was very painful to sit through a billion dollars of political TV negative advertisements. For the last two weeks of that campaign I didn't even turn on the TV.

    So for those two senate seats, they cost over 250 million dollars each for the two winners. 250 plus million for a job that pays 174,000.
     
  18. rkhames

    rkhames Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,227
    Likes Received:
    1,285
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Let's use the rule of thumb designated by ultraliberal FDR and the first 100 days. Here is an article from NBC that addresses that very point:

    By the numbers: How do 100 days of Biden and Trump (and Obama) compare? (nbcnews.com)

    Of course NBC glosses over some very telling points that put things in perspective. Such as the fact that the media was attacking Trump on a daily basis throughout his Administration. That had an obvious effect on his approval rating. The first two years the GOP controlled Congress just as the DNC controlled Congress during the first two years of the Obama Administrations. As a matter of fact, the DNC had a filibuster proof majority in Congress during Obama's first term. Biden has a majority in both the Senate and Congress. Albeit a very thin majority. Yet Biden has signed 11 legislations into law. Slightly less the Obama's 14, but Obama and Biden's together equaled less then President Trump's 29 legislations signed into law. President Obama signed 19 Executive Order (EO) in his first 100 days. (He did not start issuing laws by EO until his second term.) President Trump signed 29 EO in his first 100 days and Biden signed a whopping 42 EO's in his first 100 days. Many of which were overruled by the Federal court system.

    So, President Biden might look better then President Trump, might be considered comparable to President Trump, it all is a matter of prospective. I predict that Biden's numbers will fall drastically by 2022, and he will not seek reelection in 2024. I might be wrong, but time will tell!!!
     
  19. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,321
    Likes Received:
    38,993
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    There were 51 different "popular votes", separate and unique to themselves. Trump won 30 of those elections. There is NO singular popular vote in this country.

    How many times does this have to be clarified around here I would think people who post here would know how elections here work.
     
  20. FrankCapua

    FrankCapua Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2004
    Messages:
    3,906
    Likes Received:
    441
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Is there a bias evidenced by people who choose to respond to a poll, or among those who don't?
     
  21. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    9,744
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    People don't necessarily "chose" to enter a poll. They are requested to do so and that request is typically highly aimed. Well if the selection is indicative of the whole, and very bad if it is not. And you-the-reader may never eve know the difference.

    So, be careful of which polls are chosen and published. They are best when truly independent* (ie, "random selection") of all political-factions, and not just "selected groups".

    But their independence (from external factors) can be very difficult to prove. Which is why they should be approved by a "higher authority" that observes and even investigates randomly how and by whom they were done ...
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2021
  22. 19Crib

    19Crib Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2021
    Messages:
    5,643
    Likes Received:
    5,525
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Cut immigration to restore wage growth. Jobs are the only way out of poverty.
     
  23. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,321
    Likes Received:
    38,993
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Well we're about six months into it now how's that polling going? Here's a graph.

    upload_2021-7-9_21-8-58.png

    Not so good it seems. Heck he barely had a one month "honeymoon" before his disapprovals started to climb.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2021
  24. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2016
    Messages:
    9,744
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    NOT THE DOD!

    Rather, let's select immigration according to educational standing.

    The fundamental change that lowered jobs in Manufacturing to 24% of total (with the other 76% in the Services Sector) means that an education is chiefly necessary to find a decently paid job nowadays in America.

    Allowing the uneducated from Central America without any postsecondary education is useless. There are simply no jobs for them because of their educational-level. Even the jobs in the Manufacturing Sector nowadays require higher skill-talent due to the technological sophistication of the products being made ...

    PS: The above is also the fundamental reason the US should be funding post-secondary education for our kids - and NOT the DoD!
     
  25. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2011
    Messages:
    10,833
    Likes Received:
    4,092
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It looks like Biden's approval is following the trend that Obama did. So I expect Biden's approval to fall to the high 40s and then to bottom out in the low 40s. If things get really bad, then it could go lower.
     

Share This Page