Putin's Visit To Saudi Arabia - Hey, what's Going On Here?

First, economic statistics on income either follow 'nominal dollar' figures or the actual purchasing power of those dollars measured in the GDP real dollars or PPP index. Except for international trade purposes, where the trade is conducted in US dollars, for every other purpose using the PPP index is a lot more telling. Under that index, Iran's median family income would be a lot more actually than what you mention as being reported as Iran's GDP per capita by itself using the PPP index is approximately $20,000. (which would make the average income for a family of 4 $80,000 per year.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Second, while some of the misleading aspects of using nominal US dollar GDP figures is inherently mitigated by using the correct GDP PPP figures (whether based on CIA estimates, World Bank/IMF estimates), many aspects won't be precisely because for those countries where you have a huge disparity between nominal US dollar GDP per capita as compared to real US dollar (PPP) per capita, you also have the greatest incentives for the underground economy I alluded to. That is because if a widget is sold internationally for say $3 USD (using nominal dollar figures based on the real exchange rate for the Dollar) but due to price controls and subsidies, that widget is sold for $1 (using the same nominal US Dollar exchange rate figures), then there will be an incentive to divert at least part of the widgets being produced to outside. So, basically, whenever you find the greatest difference between GDP per capita in nominal US dollars and GDP per capita based on the PPP index, you can assume there is a large underground economy operating as well.

Anyway, I just shared with you my impressions based on my experiences. The main point I wanted to make is that I am dubious about economic statistics for a country like Iran where so much of the economic activity is underground and not reported.

While there are many Iranians who actually do save in foreign currency as a hedge against inflation and devaluation of their currency, the real estate prices I mentioned are based on conversion of the value of those prices into foreign currency based on prevailing exchange rates.

Sanctions actually drive economic activity further underground. They don't abolish the laws of supply and demand, even if they exact additional costs. Oil exports are the easiest to curtail because this particular products needs to be carried in bulk in supertankers and has signatures which make it usable for certain refineries and not others. Even with oil exports, the US is having trouble tracking the actual exports from Iran. But when you are talking about other commodities that are far easier to smuggle in and out of the country, and trade in them, such trade can never be truly controlled by sanctions. You can only exact an additional price on that trade.

 

Arabs have a price... If Putins pays much, he wins those desert Wahhabi savages.

 

What is your definition of a major power? Iran didn't have 20m people until the late 1950s.

Most North Americans think "ottoman" is a piece of furniture, so they don't know much about the Ottoman Empire, either. Even after years of fighting, less than half of Americans can identify Iraq on a map.

Can Iran become an important power in this era of centralized nation states? I don't think so. China, India, USA, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, and Nigeria all have populations more than double that of Iran.

From what I can see, Iran acts like it wants to be a regional power, a more realistic ambition.

 

My cite used PPP.

I think you're confusing GDP per capital with median family income. Anyway, I was looking for your impression of Iranian individual wealth given your comment about the underground economy.

 

It used Iranian Central Bank reports, which use nominal dollar figures based on the prevailing exchange rates for its economic reports.

My impression below would necessarily be limited to median incomes in areas of Iran I am most familiar with (namely Tehran, the Caspian region in north Iran, and large cities in Iran). While those impressions do involve rural areas in the Caspian coast, the Caspian region in Iran is more affluent than other rural areas. That said, since 75% of Iranians live in urban areas, and since the areas in Iran that I am least familiar with (rural or semi-rural areas in southern Iran outside its Iranian tourist resorts such as Kish island) ultimately account for a relatively small minority of Iran's population, you can get an impression of things for the majority in Iran -- including those who fall above and below a 'median line' -- in what I would recount below.

Based on both my impression and available statistics (not counting the 'underground economy'), I would say that median family income (family of 4) in nominal dollars (i.e., translating Iranian currency to US dollars based on prevailing exchange rates into USD and not how much purchasing power that currency provides) would be around $12,000 a year. Considering the huge subsidies in most basic necessities including gasoline, utilities, basic food items and many other things, the purchasing power of that $12,000 would be equivalent to around $36,000 for someone living in the US. And most Iranians live their typical, day to day, lives, in accordance with such incomes. However, the "underground economy" provides the windfalls they use (as they must in a primarily cash based economy) for the basis for their savings to purchase commodities such as automobiles, real estate, and things beyond the necessities in life. In other words, a typical family in Iran will budget the family expenses on something like incomes I mentioned and then have a secret slush fund based on the underground economy to purchase other things.

In this regard, in Iran, automobiles cost twice or more than they cost in the US due to high tariffs imposed ostensibly to protect the domestic automobile industry. As with everything else in Iran, while there is limited short term financing for purchase of automobiles, most automobile purchases are predominately in cash. Thus, a lower middle class Iranian family with a median income of $12,000 would still need to come up with a substantial cash savings just to purchase their car. While most Iranians are homeowners, even renters in Iran will need a substantial cash savings for the way people typically rent in Iran (which is based on a system called "rahn" which I will forego explaining here, but which basically allows an apartment that rents for $1,000 a month to rented for a fraction, if you pay a substantial cash deposit typically around 1/4 of the purchase price of the real estate). The fact that this vehicle is attractive to even Iranian renters shows that while their month-to-month incomes are actually low, their cash savings aren't that low.

My impression is that the underground economy provides a huge windfall for middle/upper middle and a disgustingly corrupt and obscene windfall for many affluent Iranians. But some of that also trickles to lower income Iranians as well. Thus, if a typical middle/upper middle class family in Iran would have a nominal USD family income of say $30,000 a year, translating to around $90,000 in PPP figures, this same family will likely have sources of income at least equal to the regular income they have earned from the 'underground economy'. And for this reason, this middle/upper middle class family in Iran is able to purchase apartments costing the equivalent (based on prevailing exchange rates) as high as $500,000 in cash. Something that a person such as myself, without the windfall, couldn't do despite having a far more substantial salary. And own other real estate such as villas in the Caspian region which also would require substantial cash savings.

 

It's all part of that MAGA! lol

 

The only legitimate government in the midfle east is Israel.

 

Does what I quoted below seem consistent with what you saw with your eyes? We can make some assessment of how Iranian families are doing by adding up the assets they possess. A country with a sizable underground economy looks a lot like what you noted about Iran.

"According to CBI, a total of 64.3% of households had their own homes last year; 26.2% lived in rental properties; 0.5% lived in homes given to them for the service they delivered; and 9% lived in free housing.

Compared to the year before, rental housing increased and the percentage of personal, free and for service homes decreased, the report noted.

Moreover, 3.1% of households lived in one-bedroom, 29.8% lived in two-bedroom, 49.7% lived in three-bedroom, 14% in four-bedroom, and 2.2% lived in five-bedroom homes. 1.2% lived in homes with six or more bedrooms.

The findings of the report also show 99.4% of households had access to running water, 100% to electricity, 94.4% to natural gas, 52.7% to urban centralized sewer systems, 77.1% to telephone, 50.5% to Internet, 98.9% to kitchen, 99.7% to bathroom, 63.8% to evaporative coolers, 19.3% to air conditioner and 8.6% to central heating system.

About 48.8% of the households owned at least one private car; 17.2% had a motorcycle; 13% had a bicycle; 99.5% had a television; 42.6% had a media player device; 55.3% had a computer; 10.3% had a camera, 84.4% had a fridge; 99.6% had a cooker; 94.1% had a vacuum cleaner, 87.8% had a washing machine; and 96.3% had a cellphone."

https://financialtribune.com/articles/economy-business-and-markets/70600/irans-urban-household-budget-survey-2016-17-spending
​

 

I have no reason or basis to dispute those statistics, but they are national statistics which obviously show a picture that is different in several respects compared to the reality someone would observe living in Tehran. For instance, in Tehran, the percentage of home ownership would probably be somewhat lower; a large percentage than in those figures living in smaller (e.g. 2 bdrm) apartments etc. Conversely, percentage of people owning at least one car would be substantially higher, as almost all households would own at least 1 car and many (if not most) would have 2 cars. And the same with many consumer goods which would be more universally available in Tehran than perhaps some other areas. But in terms of nationwide percentages, as opposed to places like Tehran and other large cities, they give a more or less accurate picture based on my own view of things.

 

Of the reports I have seen about Iran, and how it is coping with the US sanctions, this video and report from PBS is probably the best.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/economic-sanctions-impacted-daily-life-iran-2

 

The Saudis might need Russia to defend saudi Arabia since they are not sure that we will fight for them given the idea that our neocons might be losing ground in the war mongering.

Apparently not enough Saudis will risk their lived for their nation or the royal family.

Kinda like our democrats who love war as long as they can watch it on their tv sets or monitors.

I believe if you really want to see the end to our own stupid wars just bring back our draft!. Make us put out own skin in the game and these wars would cease.

 

While I don't care for the Saudis one bit, you can't deny that they are good at hedging their bets all over the place!

They have been developing expanding commercial ties with China, with China even helping them develop a ballistic missile capability to counter Iran.

Their once secret alliance and cooperation with the Israelis is of course no longer a secret!

And they have been throwing around money at the Russians for several years now, capped by the 'tens of billions' they recently negotiated in various projects of dubious merit.

Iran, on other hand, can't compete with Saudi Arabia in money to throw around and the US threat of sanctions on anyone working with Iran and the UN arms embargo against Iran, means we can't even make a serious enough attempt to do so either. So Iran's policy, unlike the Saudis, is to focus on developing our own endogenous capabilities while trying to find friends and allies among disenfranchised groups outside our borders.

 

w
You seem to be Iranian so indulge me if you dont mind.

How large is the group that wants a democratic secular govt instead of the current form?

Or do even the younger people prefer a theocracy? We hear in America that substantial numbers want more of a secular govt but is that the truth?wp

I would think that if this was true that if invaded or attacked this would make Iranians pull together uunder the current form of govt.

Thanks!

 

Why do you say that and what do you mean by legitimate? If you mean democracy, Buchanan said that Syria and Iran are the only true democracies in the M.E. If you mean 'liberal' democracies, then again Israel wouldn't fit into that category?

 

I am sick of the middle east and all their dictators..
Legitimate simply means friendly to America and not trying to kill their neighbors or supporting terrorism or Russia..
I am unapologetic in this view and couldn't care less what people from the middle east think.
America is the good guy's and those who oppose us are the bad guys. End of story.

 

Any nation that invades another nation and uses lies to justify it are not good guys.

America should be a force for good and an example . But the power og rich special interests all to often are not concerned with doing good.

You have an ideal that exists in your mind but not in reality.

We invaded the ME, did regime change killed lots of people and left something worse than before we invaded. Like Libya. How anyone can call that good means they are blind or cannot tell good from evil.

Hell Nazi germans saw themselves as being good.

A decent american will call out the good as good but call out the bad as bad.

We should strive to be good but never ignore it when our corrupt rulers do bad.

And this ignoring bad behavior insures it will continue.

America will be a good nation when it operates by the principle seen in the Golden Rule. While employing intelligence. We have used do little of either one.

So few of us trust our rulers and for valid reasons. For so little is done in the best interests of our people. Anf we call that bad. Not good.

Let us hope other nations do not emulate our war mongering

 

A few things
1. We didn't lie our way into Iraq
2. Saddam was a bad guy we supported and allowed to remain in power too long
3. America doesn't have rulers
4. America won't have leaders who live by the golden rule until it's people start living by it

 

You forgot

Osama bin Ladin is still dead!


Old SNL joke about Franco, remember?



Moi

No ​

 

1) Yes We Did.
Weapons of mass destruction never confirmed. Like that ole Gulf of Tonkin attack.
2) Saddam like Quadaffi held an "artificial" nation together as only a tough guy can.
No tough guy. Civil Wars. Si? Bush Sr. understood what Junior didn't.
3) Controllers might be more accurate with media conglomerates all in the same political emphasis. Anti Trust laws and the media, GWTW.

 

I am Iranian.

The reason Iran has been around as a nation for over 2,700 years is because it has been united by certain ideas that pre-date Islam. After Islam, the Iranian nation once again emerged from a series of events --from the Iranian renaissance of the 9th century, to the Iranians rallying almost universally behind the "Shia banner" with the rise of the Safavid dynasty in Iran in the 16th century -- to build its unity and identity on the twin pillars of Persian culture and historiography and Shia Islam as a vehicle to express age-old Iranian beliefs predating Islam. Anything that diminishes that unity is ultimately bad for Iran. While each nation has its own unique history and circumstances to deal with, the proper foreign model for Iran (including when it comes to diminishing the role of religious dogma) is found in the English model and not the model from the French revolution.

Having said that, my view on the issues you raise is as follows:
1- A clear majority in Iran are dissatisfied with their present circumstances. Some of those who dis-satisfied blame "reformers" (including the 'current government'), some blame "hardliners" (a much lower number today than before Trump and his maximum pressure campaign), and some blame the 'regime' as a whole. Among the latter, the ideology that 'opposition groups' beaming their messages from satellite stations and social media outlets promote most vigorously (at least in name and label) is "secular democracy".
2- The division between younger and older Iranians may be overstated since they are certainly not a 'unified' block within Iranian politics. But there are some, overall, cultural and political differences that exist between different generations of Iranians nonetheless. Some of those differences provide greater room for 'younger Iranians' to be recruited into politicized agendas than their older counterparts who might be more jaded and less willing to put their true trust on any political agenda by any group. Since there are millions of young Iranians who are focused on westernized living, consumerism, who are sexually active without being married, who are highly educated, and who include a disproportionate number of Iran's unemployed or underemployed people (with great reasons to be anxious about their future), they are seen as the vehicle to bring political change in Iran.

Forget about the US attacking Iran militarily. Even now, due to Trump's policies of 'maximum pressure', the Rouhani administration (which handily won the last Iranian election) now trails the person he defeated in that election in the most recent poll of Iranian public opinion! This poll is part of a series of polls which are taken over the past decade to gauge Iranian attitudes. And regardless of what anyone else may tell you, they are (and have proven) to be more reliable than any other person's rendition of what "Iranians" think.

https://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2019-10/Iranian PO under Maximum Pressure_101619_full.pdf

I highlight for you below the summary of the latest poll results, but not in the order provided by those who conducted the polls.

 

My country above all! Sounds nationalistic to me.

Strange, I'm an American and always thought of us as being patriotic, not nationalistic.​

 

And the mastermind of 9/11 is still alive.

And what makes it worse, when the CIA waterboarded Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, to many had a meltdown.

Khalid Shaikh Mohammed Al Qaeda days

Khalid Shaikh Mohammed porno days


Khalid Shaikh Mohammed Gitmo days

 

We should not Torture people - (sans the nuke is going to go off and this dude has the codes - example) and the waterboarding was only one form of Torture that we engaged in - and a relatively mild for of torture in comparison to the other stuff we engaged in.

 

You cannot be a patriot if you aren't first a nationalist.
That is to say you cannot be a patriot if you don't live America, warts and all.

A patriot is a nationalist who backs up his or her words with actions that prove the loce of country.