RCP: Post-debate polls have Trump leading Clinton by slim margin

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Talon, Oct 21, 2016.

  1. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Wow. Just...wow...

    General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

    Both IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen's post-debate polls have Trump leading Clinton by a slim margin. :omfg:

    I don't know if I've ever seen anything like this.

    Why...won't...he...just...DIE???

    [​IMG]

    Cheer up Trumpeteers - all is not lost.

    We'll see how the rest of the post-debate polls pan out.
     
  2. Mr. Swedish Guy

    Mr. Swedish Guy New Member

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    meh, the average shows hrc leading by 6.3%. The RCP electoral map prediction shows a probable hrc victory. I think the dems will win. I'm quite sure. We can almost stop worrying now. It even seems like Trump thinks he's gonna lose, since they're comming up with all kinds of excuses now... "becomming president would be a step down anyways", and "it's rigged". That's not things you say if you think you're gonna win.
     
  3. smb

    smb Well-Known Member

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    It is all lost. We do not elect President's by the popular vote. We elect them by states. Currently Trump would have to run the table on ALL 9 toss up states in order to win the election. He is currently behind in 5 of those states. Ahead by a slim margin in 3 and they are tied in 1.

    Real Clear Politics is discussing the idea of hanging a sign on their website for Trump supporters.

    Abandon All Hope All Ye Who Enter Here.
     
  4. toddwv

    toddwv Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Rasmussen was close in 2008 but WAY off in the 2012 election showing a right-wing preference. Maybe they'll do better this year.
    IBT/TIPP will get closer to the actual results about a week before the election. Until then they are also a major outlier.
     
  5. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    Polls this close are meaningless. When it is this close turnout decides.
     
  6. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm just astonished that he's leading in the two post-debate polls that have come out.

    As we all know, there's only one poll that counts and I've been saying for some time that turnout is going to determine the outcome of the election.

    We'll find out in a couple of weeks...
     
  7. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I agree.

    I originally thought that Clinton would win by 4-5 points but I also thought that turnout would favor Trump.

    What a year - I can't even agree with myself on my own predictions. :lol:
     
  8. smb

    smb Well-Known Member

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    That is just it. The polls are not close. Not the state by state polls. they are the ones that matter.
     
  9. toddwv

    toddwv Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Clinton +6.2 is Trump leading by a "slim margin?" In what universe?
    Oh yeah, Trump Bizarroworld where its inhabitants are losing what was left of their minds as they watch Orangutrump's chances slip over a plummeting hill.


    [​IMG]
     
  10. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    None of the polls matter when it is this close.
     
  11. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Beautiful!

    Leaked Email Shows Huma Abedin Admitting That Hillary Clinton's Morocco Trip was a Pay-for-Play for a $12 Million Donation, and that Hillary "Created This Mess and She Knows It"

    Quick, let's elect her. She's corrupt and evil.
    ~
    The actual meeting was paid for by OCP, the Moroccan-government-owned mining company that has been accused of serious human rights violations. Clinton vigorously supported the Moroccan King when she was Secretary of State and the U.S.-financed Export-Import Bank gave OCP a $92 million loan guarantee during her tenure as Secretary of State.

    The mining company also contributed between $5 million to $10 million to the Clinton Foundation, according to the charity’s web site.

    Abedin described the arrangement in the email as having been organized by her boss. Hillary Clinton "created this mess and she knows it," she told Podesta and Mook.

    She said the Moroccan deal was entirely dreamed up by her boss. "This was HRC's idea, our office approached the Moroccans and they 100 percent believe they are doing this at her request. The King has personally committed approx. $12 million both for the endowment and to support the meeting." HRC stands for Hillary Rodham Clinton.
    ...
    The Robert F. Kennedy Center for Justice charged OCP with "serious human rights violations," including exploitation of workers by not "adequately compensating the impoverished people who live there."
    ~
    http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/20/w...-charity-as-quid-pro-quo-for-morocco-meeting/

    She is evil corrupt greedy scum. i'm not surprised that she is failing in the post-debate polls.
     
  12. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    There are 3 daily tracking polls out there. ALL 3 (Rasmussen 4 way race, IBD/TIPP 4 way race and LA Times 2 way race) have Trump with a slim margin. But you chose to hide those polls. Must be because you are so undisturbed by them, right?
     
  13. toddwv

    toddwv Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    [​IMG]

    Cherry pick polls all you want. Doesn't change the reality of Trump's grim polling situation.
     
  14. toddwv

    toddwv Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Actually, the electoral collage situation is even worse for Trump with a very slim path for the Orange Man to win the 270 needed to pull off a win.
     
  15. Jackster

    Jackster New Member

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    Polls said forget about it Pro Brexit voters, stay home its not happening.

    Opps
     
  16. smb

    smb Well-Known Member

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    It is not close.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Just not factually accurate. Of the 14 major polls 13 of them correctly predicted a narrow victory for Brexit.
     
  17. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    I actually don't disagree with what you said but the fact that all 3 daily tracking polls show Trump slightly ahead is kind of interesting. One poll can be an outlier, one poll can have a republican bias... but all three daily tracking polls giving Trump a slim lead? That's strange, don't you think?
     
  18. The Mello Guy

    The Mello Guy Well-Known Member

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    Not sure why trumpeters keep claiming that, the polls were all very close and half said staying would win and half said leaving
     
  19. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member

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    when you average obviously skewed polls with more accurate polls you get a skewed average

    for example the most accurate pollster in the last 3 presidential elections which is IBD/TIPP has trump up by 1
    so explain how does the most accurate pollster has Trump up by 1 and all those network polls showing Clinton up by 6 to 11 points?

    this would make the average non hack say something isn't right. the curious would dig a little deeper and find out those polls that have Clinton winning by such a large margin has growly over sampled democrats
     
  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    No, the problem has to do with the nature of daily tracking polls.

    Plus, Rasmussen is a poor poll (rated c+ by Nate Silver/538) and the LATimes raw data were reanalyzed and republished, showing that Clinton has a good lead.

    We're better off watching sites that aggregate multiple polls. Fivethirtyeight.com is one. They use more than 40 polling agencies and weight their contribution by their analysis of each of those polls (past performance, methodology, etc.).

    Huffington has one which appears to be a simple arithmetic mean of current posts - not positive.

    RCP averages polls, but their average is no more than an arithmetic mean and includes polls that were taken long ago. For example, their average of OLD polls still shows Minnesota as being a toss up, and it very definitely is not.
     
  21. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member

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    and one of those tracking polls IBD/TIPP that has trump up by 1 was the most accurate pollster in the last 3 presidential elections
     
  22. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Cherry picking!

    Plus, at this point we need to be looking at the electoral college.
     
  23. highntight

    highntight Banned

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    Its not close, trump is getting his doors blown off.
     
  24. Steve N

    Steve N Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's what people say when they answer the phone. Getting out of their chairs and voting is something else and there is little enthusiasm for Clinton.
     
  25. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member

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    cherry picking? going with the most accurate polling firm of the last three presidential elections is cherry picking? I would call it putting your trust in the most credible poll
     

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