Republicans Against Trump

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Durandal, Jul 15, 2020.

  1. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    That's exactly what happens.
     
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  2. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    What are you basing your assertions about current Republican and Independent support for either candidate upon, exactly? All you cite is a 2016 poll.
     
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  3. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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    I hear that from people with intractable confirmation bias.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
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  4. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    I hear it from people who have studied various topics and are quite literate in them.
     
  5. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    That he does.

    In Wisconsin it does. Wisconsin has enough people outside of Dane and Milwaukee Counties to offset them if they simply get out and vote... and they are more enthusiastic for Trump than they were in 2016 (especially in the Milwaukee suburbs)...

    Wisconsin is not California, where the few huge liberal cities vastly outnumber the conservative rural areas... In WI, the conservative rural areas can indeed match the numbers of the bigger liberal cities...
     
  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    No, you do not.
     
  7. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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    That makes no difference if they still have confirmation bias; which can easily render them incapable of being objective.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
  8. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If Gallup is to be believed, yes, but very minor. 27% of the electorate identified themselves as Republicans in Nov 2016, as of 4 Jun 2020, 25% do. Democrats has increased by 1 point from 2016 to 31% by 4 June 2020. Independents made up 40% of the electorate in both 2016 and 2020. You'll always have your 2-3 points who identify with third parties.

    A good point, one I hadn't thought to look into.
     
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  9. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    That type of movement is almost certainly within the margin of error.

    The other point to consider is that the "independents" are very rarely willing to actually switch their votes between the parties. In other words, even if they call themselves independent, most of those voters will almost always vote for a single type of party/candidate.
     
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  10. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  11. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Very true, I usually break down independents into three categories. Independents lean Democrat, independents lean Republican and true or pure independents with no leans. If one is into election forecasts, knowing how many are in each category is important. History show that those on average who identify themselves as Republicans and or Democrats will vote for their candidate 90% of the time regardless of who that candidate is. Some quick history on that.

    2016 88% of Republicans for Trump, 89% of Democrats for Hillary Clinton
    2012 93% of Republicans for Romney, 92% of Democrats for Obama
    2008 90% of republicans for McCain, 89% of democrats for Obama
    2004 93% of Republicans for Bush, 89% of democrats for Kerry
    2000 91% of Republicans for Bush, 89% of Democrats for Gore

    and so on.

    90% is a good average for the party faithful. Independents who lean on average will vote for the party they lean toward roughly 70% of the time. Pure and or true independents with no leans, who the heck knows. They're very finicky. They can vote for one party 65% one election and then vote for the other party 65% in the next election. Impossible to predict them. But they only make up 10-15% of the total independent block of voters.

    I tend to get number crazy, so forgive me on that.
     
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  12. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I enjoy the numbers, don't worry.

    Is there a way to measure the preference of the "Independents who lean?"
     
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  13. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    You don't have confirmation bias?
     
  14. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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    We are all subject to confirmation bias,
    how much it affects someone, if at all, depends on the individual.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
  15. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's hard. Most polls will give you the breakdown of independents who say they'll vote for Biden or Trump, they'll have other, the choice for third party most of the time and of course the undecided, not sure. But that's it. No independent leans. So it becomes an educated guess. But a guess nonetheless.

    Looking at independents as a whole, over the last two months, they have broken down approximately 40% for Trump, 40% for Biden, 10% other, 10% undecided. Of course Trump may lead one week by a couple three points, Biden the leader the next week and back and forth. Independents usually don't become locked in until a week to a month prior to the election if we go by history. Usually those in the other column, third party voters will be cut in half as they decide to vote for one or the other major party candidates. The old saying from the major parties of, third party can't win, so a third party vote is a wasted vote begins to sink in. Of course the undecided's also begin to make up their minds. Usually these other's and undecided's go against the incumbent. Perhaps by an average of 60-40. If they were happy with the incumbent, they would have said so long before a week or two prior to the election.

    I'm not sure this helps, but here it is.
     
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  16. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Confirmation bias is not a disease. It is a logical fallacy (proof by consensus).
     
  17. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm an ex-Repub. Voted for Romney in his election against Obama. Disliked Trump a LOT back in 2016 so voted Gary Johnson 3rd party. Definitely voting for Trump in 2020.
     
  18. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    To each his own. How you can like a corrupt, self-serving con man is beyond me, though.
     
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  19. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
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  20. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Why? Didn't you get pissed at trump for failing to punish or even call out Russia for paying a bounty for the deaths of American soldiers?
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2020
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  21. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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    Confirmation bias can cause people to disregard negative information about a political candidate that they support.
     
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  22. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    "My family company was one of the many companies that helped build the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. Trump did not pay my family's company $8 million. So, I always remember going to New York and being like 'dad, isn't that the guy that, you know, owed you the money.'"

    Are you a Republican, ex-Republican, or Trump-voter who won’t support the president this November? Share your story here: https://rvat.org/tell-your-story
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
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  23. NightOwl

    NightOwl Banned

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    More recycled garbage...
     
  24. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    ?

    These are Republicans who pay attention to the facts and live in reality. They're not pleased with the cult leader and charlatan in the White House, nor with his enablers in Congress.



    "He has literally brought the white supremacist movement back."

    Are you a Republican, ex-Republican, or Trump-voter who won’t support the president this November? Share your story here: https://rvat.org/tell-your-story
     
  25. NightOwl

    NightOwl Banned

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    These are pretenders. Astroturf paid for by left wing money and pushed on left wing social media. Its a scam and everyone knows it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020

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