RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 14 FEBRUARY 2019

Striped Horse · Feb 15, 2019

Patrick Armstrong's latest Sitrep below.

I was particularly interested by his second item that Russia is proceeding with its de-dollarisation programme now down from 44% to 22% and replaced to some extent with Euros and Renmembi's but also larger gold holdings. Interestingly, Armstrong notes that Russia's external debt is the lowest for 10 years at $453.7 billion and notes that the US economic war is clearly failing.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 14 FEBRUARY 2019 (by Patrick Armstrong)

RUSSIA COLLUSION. US Senate says none. Clinton's excuse for her shattered campaign has generated much damage: censorship, stronger war party, hysterical TV, attacks on anyone who bucks the war party, destruction of the last bits of "journalistic standards", bogus charges, mangled innocents like Maria Butina. And more aggression against Russia. How much better off we'd be if Trump had never uttered the words "Russia" or "Putin". We're at the end state I feared: no Trumputin (remember this from the NYT?) but much more evil Putin. I doubt Schiff will ever stop and CNN and MSNBC still have time to fill.

CURRENCY WARS. The Central Bank of Russia continues its strategy: total USD holdings down to 22% from 46%, Euros and Renmenbi holdings up; gold 2,112 tonnes. Total external debt $453.7 billion, lowest in nearly 10 years. Moody's upgrades debt rating. Washington's economic war is failing.

INFRASTRUCTURE. Lots of roads being built and improved. Bridges too.

IVANOV. We learn what Sergey Ivanov has been doing. "Environmental Activities, Environment and Transport". I guess Avangard changes the security environment and is a form of transport.

ROC. I think Helmer's over-reacting -- I see the Patriarch saying the Church is independent of the state. FAKE NEWS. Only liars try to control the news. (A propos: BBC producer says Douma films faked.)

NOT SUCH FUN NOW. Remember when it was fun to poke the bear? "Weak and dying", "really weak", "not strong", "deceptively weak military"? Second thoughts now. Missile defence systems fail. Chinese and Russian space technologies. S-400 iron curtain against US airpower. US military outgunned. Of course, not a millisecond's consideration of a diplomatic solution: it's all "we are not investing enough to keep up". Delusion rules in Washington.

INF TREATY. Washington is leaving the INF Treaty, Moscow followed suit. I think this is the Trumpian overture (vide North Korea and NAFTA) to negotiating a new treaty to include China. We'll see if it works. Russia has an immediate response: take the ship-borne Kalibr systems and put them on land. I agree with Orlov that the suspension of the Treaty actually works to Moscow's benefit. Will the Europeans, with this new bullseye painted on their heads, protest as before – protests that helped create the Treaty – or have they been completely de-spined?

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https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic...ep-14-february-2019-by-patrick-armstrong.html

Striped Horse · Feb 15, 2019

One of the items Armstrong linked to is the one below about how Senator Inhofe concludes that the US is now outgunned and are falling behind Russia and China in a variety of weapon systems.

I'm not knowledgeable about Inhofe so have no idea if he is generally shouting alarm or simply making a pork barrel statement that will benefit his state?

Sen. Jim Inhofe: The U.S. military is outgunned, and we must do something about it

By Sen. Jim Inhofe

Feb 3, 2019

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When it comes to our military, it is easy to assume that the United States has the best of everything. For most of us, it’s because that’s how it always was. Having the greatest military coupled with modern, advanced weaponry allowed us to win two world wars as well as successfully use deterrence to win the Cold War.

Our military edge was the product of hard work, not birthright. We earned it. But over the last 10 years our military supremacy has degraded. Gen. (Joseph) Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has warned that our qualitative and quantitative advantage has eroded.

We’re falling behind in many areas to China and Russia — not just advanced new weaponry, like hypersonic weapons, directed energy and AI — but also in terms of conventional capabilities. That includes aviation and artillery, two key capabilities that are resident in Oklahoma’s military installations.

Why? Simply put, we are not investing enough to keep up. At the end of the Cold War, we had about the same number of fighter aircraft as Russia and China. Our aircraft were also the newest and most capable in the world.

In the last 25 years, however, we have lost that superiority. Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson has said, “Our Air Force is too small to do what the nation asks,” and it is easy to see why. In 1990, we bought over 500 aircraft per year, but recently that number has been reduced to around 50 per year. We must do better because at this rate, it will take us over 40 years to modernize a fleet that is already too old and too small — just look at the B-52 bomber. We’ve been flying this aircraft for 66 years.

We’re woefully behind in artillery, too. At the end of the Cold War, the Russians and Chinese had vastly superior numbers of artillery, but we were in a position to counter their volume because our equipment was so much better. We are now in a situation where both of these countries not only have more artillery than we do, but theirs is better than ours — especially in terms of long-range fires and tactical missiles. Gen. Mark Milley, chief of staff of the Army, said it plainly: “In terms of artillery, the Army is outgunned and outranged by our adversaries.”

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RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 14 FEBRUARY 2019

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