Senate races to watch in November

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by pjohns, Mar 25, 2020.

  1. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    The Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the US Senate. (And that, of course, is counting Angus King--an independent from Maine, who caucuses with the Democrats--as a Democrat.)

    But one may reasonably inquire: Just what is the Senate likely to resemble after the November 2020 elections?

    Well, Colorado is a likely pickup for the Democrats. Sen. Cory Gardner--the incumbent, and a Republican--may be vulnerable to a challenge (presumably, from John Hickenlooper).

    On the other hand, Alabama is quite likely to elect a Republican to replace Sen. Doug Jones--who merely replaced Jeff Sessions by winning the Democratic primary in 2017, and then defeating (the disgraced) Roy Moore in the general election.

    Of the two, the Republicans are probably in better shape, as Alabama is a deep-red state, whereas Colorado is more of a purple state (with more blue than red in it).

    Some other states to watch: Arizona features former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) challenging the incumbent senator, Martha McSally (R)--who was merely appointed, not elected.

    And North Carolina features the incumbent, Thom Tillis (R), hoping to ward off a challenge from Cal Cunningham (D).

    I would not be at all surprised if the Republicans were to win two of the elections mentioned above, with the Democrats taking two.

    How do others see it?
     
  2. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Depends on how this virus shakes out. Every race might be on the table. Although Jones is likely out regardless...
     
  3. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Jones has done everything he can to make sure he does not get reelected but no telling what despicable games the Democrats in the state will play. They will go to no lengths and as deep as they need to go. Not just the Kavanaugh but other votes he has taken sucking up to Schumer and then he voted against the fist COVID bill got inundated with emails telling him to resign including from me and changed on the second vote.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  4. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Dems Pickup AZ, CO, and ME.

    NC is their best chance for a 4th.
     
  5. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you as concerning Colorado. (It is not a done deal, in my opinion; but I give the Democrats about a 60 percent chance there.)

    And some--including some serious analysts (Larry Sabato leaps to mind)--would agree with you as regarding Arizona. But I am a bit more circumspect there. It is closer to a 50-50 prospect, in my opinion.

    I am also uncertain as regarding North Carolina. But Thom Tillis is the incumbent; and incumbency carries with itself an inherent advantage.

    As for Maine, Susan Collins is about my least favorite Republican senator (well, second-least favorite--after Utah's Mitt Romney). But I believe that she is likely to hold onto her job.
     
  6. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Not sure about Collins.

    I would REALLY surprised if she hung on.

    Especially given increased Dem. Participation in Pres. Election Years

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ds-gop-incumbent-collins-by-4-points-in-maine
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  7. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    A Colby College/Socialsphere poll, taken in mid-February, shows Collins down by just one point--although, in all fairness, a later poll, taken by PPP (a Democratic polling agency), shows her challenger, Sara Gideon, up by four points: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/me/maine_senate_collins_vs_gideon-6928.html

    I still think this is too close to call--especially more than seven months out--and I confess to having no deep knowledge of how well she is liked in the state.

    People are, indeed, more likely to come out to vote, during years divisible by four. (And there is an increasing tendency to vote a straight-party ticket--rather than a split ticket, as in years past.)

    I may, however, need to revise my prediction as concerning Arizona: The polls I have just seen show Kelly ahead by about eight to 12 points; so McSally may have a tough time there.
     
  8. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    I still contend that CO, AZ, and ME are certain to flip.

    But they need the 4th.

    Bullock has put Montana in play.

    NC seems like the most viable target to get the 4th.

    Iowa is the only other State that seems even remotely in play, but Ernst is very well-liked.
     
  9. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Donor

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    Alabama goes Republican, Tuberville will defeat Sessions in the GOP runoff in July and win Jones's seat
    Arizona goes democratic, Kelly wins
    Colorado goes democratic, Hickenlooper easily defeats Gardner
    Maine goes Democratic, Gideon defeats Collins
    North Carolina is a true tossup, flip a coin between Tillis and Cunningham
    Montana is another pure tossup, Governor Bullock deciding to challenge Republican Daines has a good chance of winning this seat.

    I'd also keep an eye on the two Georgia seats. Especially if Biden pick Abrams as his VP choice. Georgia could be this year's election shocker.
     
  10. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    Even if you are correct--and I am not at all certain about Maine, according to the polling that I have seen--it would be necessary to subtract Alabama (which is an almost certain pickup for the Republicans).

    This is true. (He is surely the only Democrat who could have done that.)

    But I still give the GOP at least a 70 percent chance of winning that election.
     
  11. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Yup.

    The loss of AL is a Given, so they need 4 to get to 50/50.

    I still think NC is the best chance at the 4th.

    And, I would be very surprised if Collins held on in ME.
     
  12. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  13. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Donor

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    Montana has a history of electing Democratic senators. They have one now in the form of Jon Tester and prior to Daines, it was Max Baucus. I don't think it was far fetched to label Montana a tossup. From what I understand Maine has gone to ranked voting which means the candidate which is ahead in the first round if that candidate receives less than 50% plus one vote could very well lose in the second round or via second choices. You'll have Lisa Savage as the Green party candidate plus three independents running. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Collins ahead after round round, but lacking the 50% plus one only to lose when second choice's are counted. There was a republican congressional candidate in Maine that lost that way already.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  14. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    Making it to 50/50 would be meaningful, only if the Democrats were to win the presidency in 2020--thereby giving the vice-president the tie-breaking vote.

    This looks a bit more plausible now than it did recently, due to the crashing of the economy, because of the coronavirus. (Although, just yesterday, we entered a new bull market; and that ties, for a record, the shortest bear market in recorded history.)

    If the coronavirus subsides soon (as it probably will), and the economy is roaring again by next fall, do you believe it is likely that a Democrat will unseat this sitting president?
     
  15. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    This is very true.

    But this is a presidential-election year. And if we assume--correctly, I believe--that very few people will vote for a Republican for president, and for a Democrat for senator--it is almost always, nowadays, an all-or-nothing scenario--we should ask: Is it likely that Montana will go for the Democratic candidate (probably Biden) for president?

    I just cannot imagine that it might vote for both Trump and Bullock.
     
  16. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Donor

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    You could be right. But be aware Max Baucus was reelected in 1984, 1996 and 2008, all presidential years. Tester was reelected in 2012 another presidential year. In all those years Montana went heavily Republican for president.
     
  17. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    You make a good point.

    But, as I have noted elsewhere (I think it was in this political forum; though I could be mistaken), incumbents have a built-in advantage, unless they have done something that makes them highly unpopular. So it is usually much easier to be re-elected than it is win as a challenger.

    I guess all we can do, anyway, is to just sit back and wait...
     
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  18. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Still the essential equation hasn't changed:

    1) When Biden Wins, the D's will need 50 for control.
    2) AL is a sure flip to R.
    3) The Dems need 4 and CO, AZ, and ME should flip (and are a Must)
    4) ND is the best chance for the 4th (With IA and MT, possibly, in play)

    ^That is the Essential (Starting Point) Equation.

    (And, nothing has really happened to change that).
     
  19. Actingout

    Actingout Newly Registered

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    Def depends on how all this virus and stimulus packages pan out. Some Dems on thin ice. Some Dem governors doing a horrible job in their states that may also sway voters.
     
  20. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Donor

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    Exactly, What I consider a tossup today can change next week. I have put Montana senate seat into my tossup column.
     
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  21. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    The choice of the term "when," in the construction above, is...well, interesting...

    It seems to suggest an inevitability.

    And, although President Trump is enormously polarizing--and he seems especially unpopular among suburban housewives--the serious political analysts that I have referenced seem to think that he should be regarded as the favorite for 2020. (Frankly, it would not surprise me to see a replay of 2016: one in which Trump loses the popular vote, but wins the electoral vote.)

    In any case, I would much prefer to be influenced by the conclusions of serious analysts than by those of the political hacks at either the DNC or the RNC.
     
  22. StarFox

    StarFox Well-Known Member

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    Gardner cannot win here in Colorado, so many losers, oops I mean fine people from California ran from CA as fast as they could to escape the insanity, and now live here, and none of them learned a damn thing. They vote for the same kinds of morons that ruined California and they are incapable of understanding that. So very much sadly for our state and the country we are blue. Very blue indeed, as in depressing.
     
  23. pjohns

    pjohns Well-Known Member

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    Although I would consider Gardner to have a bit less than a 50-50 chance, I really do not think that his re-election is impossible.

    To quote from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:

    "This reelection path for Gardner isn’t impossible, but he needs some things to break his way in order to retain his seat. Hence, it makes more sense to look at Gardner as an underdog."

    And I consider Sabato to be a quite trenchant analyst. (By the way, I would say the same for Charlie Cook; Stu Rothenberg; Scott Rasmussen; and Nate Silver--whose FiveThirtyEight website is quite good. Some of these analysts lean slightly to the right, whereas some lean slightly to the left; but none would wish to jeopardize his reputation by making outlandish predictions.)
     
  24. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Anything is possible.

    I still say that the Dems winning CO, AZ, and ME is a Done Deal.

    The Big Question is where does the 4th come from?
     
  25. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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