Size of the Blue Wave, the Recount Status and the future of the Dem Party

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Derideo_Te, Nov 9, 2018.

  1. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Great article here in the NYT demonstrating the actual size of the Blue Wave.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/us/politics/how-democrats-took-the-house.html

    317 districts moved to the Left!

    30 districts FLIPPED from R to D with an AVERAGE of 21 points!

    Average districts NATIONWIDE moved 10 points to the LEFT which INCLUDED 171 Republican districts!

    So taking the House and 7 Governor's mansions is the good news for the Dems. With recounts in FL and GA there is the possibility of that number growing.

    The NET losses in the Senate are just 2 seats given that the Dems FLIPPED Nevada.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/08/politics/remember-the-midterms-where-things-stand/index.html

    Then there is the recount of the FL Senate seat and the as yet to be determined AZ seat. The GOP stands to expand their majority to 4 if they win both recounts.

    However what happens if the LOSE both recounts?

    That puts the Senate back into 50-50 territory with Pence having the tiebreaker. At least that would be the case until AZ holds their special election for McCain's Senate seat. On the assumption that the Dems prevailed with Sinema they could, theoretically, prevail again in AZ and actually take the Senate.

    Yes, the odds are slim and none but it was worth mentioning so that it won't be a surprise if it does happen. Personally I see it as not happening because even if Sinema does win in AZ I suspect that Nelson is still going to lose in FL.

    These Midterms were a REFERENDUM on more than just the BLOTUS. There were also a referendum on the future direction of the Dem party and where it is headed. There is no doubt in my mind that the PROGRESSIVES PREVAILED nationwide. The statistics provided at the beginning of this post reflect that it was the Progressive Messaging and Energy that drove the Blue Wave. Had the Dem party backed the Progressives to the hilt the outcome would have been even larger IMO.

    So now the Dems need to take a good hard look at those results and EMBRACE the Progressive Agenda if they want to win in 2020.

    The data speaks for itself and the Progressives speak for We the People.

    America is moving AWAY from the hard right and BACK towards the LEFT.
     
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  2. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Midterms always go for the party out of power.

    You can't look at one election and make a determination about which way the nation is moving, you have to look at multiple ones and determine a trend.

    Our nation is trending right as evidenced by the election of Trump over Hillary and the republicans holding the senate.

    There was no blue wave, just your usual midterm election results.
     
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  3. Yakamaru

    Yakamaru Well-Known Member

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    ^ No Blue Wave let alone a bloody Red Tsunami.

    More like a very slight Red fizzle, like what you get when some fireworks misfire.
     
  4. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yeah it was kind of a "blah" election.

    And lets not forget that Congress itself is at an historic low for favorability on job performance.

    Neither side is creating any sort of waves.

    Even as partisan as I am I have a hard time saying anything good about the GOP at this point.

    Other than their court stacking but that was a given.
     
  5. Yakamaru

    Yakamaru Well-Known Member

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    The pendulum is swinging to the Right, tho the pendulum have been swinging for generations, so nothing new there.

    What the world needs is balance, not this swing too far to any side bull.
     
  6. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That is how our system is designed though and it was done intentionally.

    As the pendulum swings left and right it always passes center more often.

    This prevents us from ever going too far in one direction and allowing tyranny to form.

    Rather brilliant design from the founders in my opinion.

    This is why we have a two party system, winning by majority, and equal representation of the states.

    It all plays into this giant pendulum swinging back and forth.

    Its our safeguard.
     
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  7. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    The older, white, less-educated geezers, especially the evangelical zealots, that form the base of the Party of Trumpery are being ineluctably succeeded by an upsurge of better-educated women, and younger Americans of diverse races, ethnicities, and religions.

    Demographics = Destiny in a truly democratic, participatory democracy.
     
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  8. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Indeed you are correct. In January I predicted a Rainbow Wave and that is what has come to pass with two Native Americans, two Muslim Women, an openly gay governor and the first female governor in three states (two of them deep red) and Guam.

    Then there are all the down ballot races where the demographics are clearly demonstrating then changes that will only increase in 2020 and beyond. Older, white, less-educated geezers are heading for extinction as their time in power comes to an end.
     
  9. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    The uneducated Trump voter is a myth.

    It’s time to bust the myth: Most Trump voters were not ...
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/05/its...
    Watch video · Trump voters were not mostly working-class people. During the primaries, Trump supporters were mostly affluent people. The misrepresentation of Trump’s working-class …
     
  10. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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  11. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    Worked for me, have some more.

    1. 5 myths about Trump supporters - POLITICO
      https://www.politico.com/.../03/5-myths-about-trump-supporters-220158
      1. “They’re uneducated” Blue-collar voters certainly make up the bulk of Trump’s large coalition, but he is also doing very well among Republicans with college degrees.

    2. Mike Rowe and the Myth of “Uneducated” Trump Voter | The ...
      https://stream.org/the-myth-of-uneducated-trump-voter
      Mike Rowe and the Myth of “Uneducated” Trump Voter The lack of a degree does not necessarily indicate a lack of knowledge in all the key things that should inform citizenship. By Rob Schwarzwalder Published on November 14, 2016 • Rob Schwarzwalder “Trump won.
      1. The Economist: 'Myth' that Uneducated, Poor Voters Support ...
        https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2016/04/21/the-economist-myth...
        “It would seem Mr. Trump is a broadly appealing fellow after all,” The Economist’s analysis concludes, suggesting that it’s a myth only poor and uneducated voters support Trump. Politics Donald Trump

      2. Sociologists Blow Up the Myth that Uneducated White Voters ...
        https://www.alternet.org/sociologists-blow-myth-uneducated-white...
        Sociologists Blow Up the Myth that Uneducated White Voters Support Trump Because of Economic Anxiety: 'They Share His Prejudices' Sociologist David Smith also details why Trump voters will side ...

      3. The Economist: ‘Myth’ that Uneducated, Poor Voters Support ...
        https://www.teaparty.org/economist-myth-uneducated-poor-voters...
        Take education: on average, voters with a high-school education or less have made up 16% of the Republican electorate overall and a fifth of Mr Trump’s voting base; but college graduates and postgraduates account for 43% of his support.
     
  12. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    At least 98 women were elected to the House of Representatives -- 84 Democrats, 14 Republicans -- and 12 will join the Senate -- 10 Democrats, two Republicans...

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/100-women-elected-us-house-historic-election/story?id=59019553

    Progress will persist!​
     
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  13. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Educational level was the major distinction in the 2016 vote. The less-educated have as much right to vote for whomever they want as does anyone else.

    Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump

    ... the education gap is carving up the American electorate and toppling political coalitions that had been in place for many years.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/

    Donald Trump’s surge is all about less-educated Americans

    ... Even when pollsters took race out of the equation — to the extent that that is possible since the Republican base is overwhelmingly white — and looked at all Republicans, the relationship between education and Trump support was pretty clear.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-americans-heres-why/?utm_term=.019bc5fbcb58

    How Voters’ Education Levels Factored Into Trump’s Win


    ... people with college degrees — and especially higher degrees — are far more likely to vote for Clinton than Trump, and vice versa."

    https://www.chronicle.com/article/How-Voters-Education-Levels/238361
     
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  14. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

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    Sorry your gal lost and you buy into a myth. Liberals have a need to believe they are superior.

    I live in Fl. Gillum wants to raise corporate tax rates 40% Because, you know it will all go for health care for all and not drive the biggest taxpayers out of business or Fl. IMO anyone who thinks that's a great idea, is far from "educated".

    Hoodwinked, is a better phrase.
     
  15. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Republicans lost control of the house, that was enough of a wave for me, two more years Trump will be fired, till then he can work with dems or be a lame duck president for the next two years, the choice is his
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2018
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  16. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    was a good election, was a combination of a blue wave and a red tide
    [​IMG]
     
  17. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

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    A blue wave? Surely you can't be serious. How was it a blue wave exactly?
     
  18. chris155au

    chris155au Well-Known Member

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    What did you make of mid term 2010 and 2014?
     
  19. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    It has nothing to do with anyone's superiority or inferiority complex. The empirical, existential crisis for the GOP is that its base is steadily shrinking.

    Demographic data, compiled by a variety of surveys, confirm that older, less-educated whites are Trump's most ardent supporters, the shrinking white evangelical Trumpers among them.

    Republicans lost in House districts with low unemployment rates. They lost in districts that have gained manufacturing jobs. They lost in districts that got big tax cuts. And they lost overwhelmingly in the kind of affluent, educated suburbs that have experienced the strongest overall recovery — and that were once among the most reliable Republican districts.

    The Democrats had a very big election on Tuesday, with a 5-point national congressional margin that allowed them to pick up 32 House seats, to elect a record-breaking 100 women to the House, and to flip six statehouses and seven governors’ mansions. Democrats now occupy nearly half of the 50 governors’ mansions, including winning all of the races in the Blue Wall states that allowed Donald Trump to win the Electoral College.

    As the conservative Washington Times reported

     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2018
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  20. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    :roflol:

    Four of the links deal with the PRIMARIES in 2016 and one deals with a SINGLE STATE!

    ONLY the Sociologists link is from 2018 and it essentially SUPPORTS the position that your beloved BLOTUS supporters are low-education bigoted older white males.

    From that link;

    Thanks for providing a link that SUPPORTED the FACTS about BLOTUS supporters being old white bigoted males with less education.
     
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  21. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    2010 was definitely a red wave albeit driven by misdirected anger.
     
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  22. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    republicans lost how many seats in the house.... that was a wave, the next two years republicans have lost full control... thank goodness
     
  23. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    was a red wave, what would you call it when a party has full control and loses it during the midterms

    in fact Bush and Obama said as much at the time, Trump is still living in denial, not sure he realizes how government works

    then again Trump used to be a dem, maybe he is happy dems won and is looking to make some deals with the left to get some bills passed
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2018
  24. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Why America Was Denied a Blue Wave and a Red Wedding....


    The blue wave didn’t materialize. The red tide didn’t come in. Still, while we still do not have final numbers, there is no way to spin the evening as good news for Republicans. Not only will they see important committee chairmanships pass to the Democrats—more on that in a moment—but they lost some important races and more than a few high-profile incumbents, including the defeat of Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, Texas Rep. (and House Rules chair) Pete Sessions, and a one-time presidential hopeful, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, whose electoral luck after a recall and a reelection finally ran out......snip~


    https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-ameri...180500737.html


    Imagine that. A leftist that can admit the truth.



    5 key takeaways from the 2018 midterm elections - ABC News

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/key-takeaways-2018-midterm...
    The "blue wave" didn't crest, but the results bring a sea change to Washington. ... from the 2018 midterm elections. By Cheyenne ... after speaking during an election night party, Tuesday, Nov. 6 …




    Why Is the ‘Blue Wave’ Looking More Like a Splash Than a ...

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/midterm-elections-democrat...
    The new conventional wisdom of the 2018 election is set: Democrats had a real chance to ride anti-Trump sentiment and inflict a crushing defeat on Republicans. But their own excesses tripped them up.



    WASHINGTON – While many races have yet to be called, it is clear after Tuesday's election that the predicted "blue wave" in the 2018 midterms turned out to be more of a Democratic swell.


    Democrats did gain a clear majority in the House and flipped some governorships (although fewer than they had hoped), but Republicans added more seats than expected in the Senate and scored victories in nearly all of the most high-profile races.....snip~



    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rs/1917410002/




    Now that is funny....ABC, USA Today all leftist publications telling the Demo Cult following How it is with reality. What the actual reality is.


    No Blue Wave. But we are leftists so we will make **** up. [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2018
  25. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Lyin' Don predicted a "Red Wave!" on November 6.
     
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