Slump in China's Yuan will offset US tariffs

Final quarters of a presidency are often slow because they are final quarters, same goes for the stock market. Looking at the data available, the "upswing" you describe is a myth. There's a steady, obvious trend line stretching from 2009 until now. Nothing dramatically changed due to Trump. I've provided several graphs demonstrating that. Take a look at them if you decide to prefer facts to hero worship.

 

Cherry picking is when an unrepresentative subset is used as a representation of a set. I used the ENTIRE set. You are like a parrot repeating a word while showing no understanding of it.

You claimed Obama handed off an economy "on the upswing". Well his last six full quarters averaged 1.48% annualized growth.

Well, Trump's first six full quarters averaged more than twice that, at 3% growth, which you describe as "flattening".

I've been very reasonable and patient with you. If you want to refuse to believe facts staring you right in the face, you have every right to do that and I have no desire to interfere.

 

You have not used the entire set. You used the entire set for Trump alone and ignored the entire set for Obama.

The economy was on an upswing that started in 2009, and the trend line can easily be seen by all except those who prefer to ignore the fact.

Refer to the post I already referred you to for the flattening. Not sure why you refuse to look at that, but probably for the same reason you refuse to look at long term GDP.

For every metric you've mentioned, I've shown you the trend and when it started. And you've refused to address that, instead deciding the cherry pick and put on blinders. If hero worship is more important than facts, you can keep it.

 

Well that's progress, before you claimed Obama left on an "upswing".

Congratulations! That's growth on your part, my hat's off to you!

 

Doubling GDP growth is "nothing dramatic"?

So half as much or twice as much is pretty much the same? You're like word salad. You show little understanding of the terms you use.

 

The Yuan relative to the USD is dropping as a result of double-top action followed by a move towards the 50% retracement level. The market knew this before it happened and that became a self fulfilling prophecy. This has little to do with Trump's trade war and more to do with market technicals than anything else. Those same technicals are what triggered the move from the bottom at 6.2500 up to the current double-top level of 6.9500 on a greater the 127% extension of a downward move. If 6.8000 is taken out to the downside, expect more of the same into the 50% level.

Trump, is not in control of this. I am and all other currency Traders around the world, are in control of this. We always have been.

 

It was still an upswing. The growth slowed, but it was still growth in line with the trend line. You've seen it displayed graphically multiple times. I'm sorry, but Trump is not a time traveller. The trends you are talking about started on an upswing in 2009.

 

I can show you the graph again if you want. If Obama had somehow won a third term and the trends that existed in his first two terms continued, this is exactly what we would expect. You show little understanding for the concept of a trend and are determined to give the rooster credit for the sunrise.

Once more, in case it finally sinks in. Anyone trying to tell you that they look at the below and see anything "dramatic" from 2016 on is lying to you. If someone tells you they see an upswing starting at the end of 2009, they are telling the truth. Nothing dramatically changed about the trend since then. Nothing. Facts vs Trump. Facts win:

 

I used the entire set for Trump and an equal set for Obama, the closest in time.

 

Excluding available data in order to change what the results look like isn't a good policy.

 

Now you want to argue counterfactuals?

His final six quarters average 1.48% Trump's averaged 3.0. That's not "the same" that's not "flattening" thats not "remaining on trend" that's "doubling" or "rapidly accelerating".

Obama got the opportunity of a lifetime. Two full Presidential terms. He spent both terms blaming his performance on Bush and now that he is gone, he is trying to steal credit for Trump's performance.

He was President from Jan 20, 2009 to Jan 20, 2017. That's his measurement period. He didn't have to run when he did, he didn't have to run for re-election when he did. HE picked this time period. HE said this is when I want to be President. He spent well over a billion dollars campaigning. Bush may have been the dumbest president, but Obama was the whiniest, I'll give him that.

It's kinda sad that you have to go back nearly a decade to find something to brag on Obama for. And I most certainly see something dramatic in the second half of the above graph, its real solid growth while the first half is the sucky Obama "New Normal" that was America just barely treading water. Now we are in expansion and boom. Wages rising, more people employed than ever, largest wage hikes in nearly a decade.

Damn straight the change is dramatic.

And that Obama is so desperately trying to steal credit for Trump's performance concedes the point that Trump is doing ONE HELL OF A JOB!

 

I don't even know why you bother You are told to go back to post #193 and it clearly shows a flat line from plunge in Q2 2016 and a continues flat line in to Q1 2017 which was still Mr Obatards budget..

Like I say, why subject yourself to nonsense like this You sir would make a great 6th grade teacher you have the patience of a saint!

 

Well, over the years, folks have certainly been patient with me.

 

Then why do you sternly refuse to measure over that time period?

Cool, the same upward trend we've had from 2009 until now. Great. Looking forward to that time travel theory.

It is kind of sad that you think that's what is going on. I showed CONTINUOUS data THROUGHOUT that time period. I didn't say to just go look at 2009. That's just when the trend started. It is a trend. It has continued throughout every year since then. That's why it is called a trend.

Then you need to work on your trend analysis.

All of which have been on the same upward trend for the past several years.

Neither one deserves the credit, but Obama supporters mistake correlation with causation. Trump's supporters can't even get the correlation part right.

 

Yes, it's already doing that. The last spending bill on the military contributed a lot to that but, Trump promised, it won't happen again. And with Ryan gone that's a real possibility.

 

I'm using Obama's quarters immediately preceding Trump's. Why go back nearly ten years? What is your argument for claiming that 2009/2010 are more relevant to 2017/2018 than 2015/2016?

Well no, Trump's six quarters had twice the growth rate as Obama's final six quarters.

 

Pretty sucky growth at 1.48%. You aren't going to get rising wages on that! Now 3%. Now we are seeing the labor markets tighten, wages jumping and consumer confidence soaring!

 

It's not raising costs on our businesses. It's raising costs on portions of businesses that outsource their manufacturing to increase profits, just to sell these goods back to us.

 

Of course it is raising costs on our businesses. Your hatred for efficiency and capitalism doesn't change that fact.

 

Dude, if all you have is strawman **** like the above, run along. I don't have the patience nor the desire to debate with people who resort to such juvinile tactics.

Capitalism depends on an equal playing field. Its why we disallow monopolies, bid rotating, price fixing, etc. etc.

The world economy is not equal, by any stretch of the imagination. Whats the point of having labor regulations here, if we ignore the business that sends their manufacturing overseas for sweatshop labor and then turns around and sells those products back to us? We might as well just go back to deplorable work conditions in this country in an effort to stay competitive. Is this really your position?

 

An FYI, a cheaper Yuan makes Chinese products even cheaper.......hello!!!!!!???

 

And even if they devalue their currency to maintain market share, they are still paying US taxes on all their sales.

What Happens When the Chinese funnel cash to our Universities and "Progressive" think tanks and Left Wing Politicians:

DOING SO WOULD GIVE TRUMP ADDITIONAL LEVERAGE IN TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, WHICH IS WHY PELOSI WILL REFUSE:

GOP Senators Ask Pelosi to Invite Taiwan President to Speak to Congress.

“Address would infuriate China, ‘send a powerful message that the United States and the American people will always stand with the oppressed, and never the oppressor’.”

 

How is it that we have talked about tariffs for over a year now and you still don't know who is paying the tariff? Hint: China doesn't pay tariffs on goods it sells.

 

I’m glad you said that

I suspect china is already buying the allegience of liberals in the universities

 

The Chinese have given themselves some "breathing room". The 'tipping point' (as I understand it) is 7:1. Right now, the yuan is 6.74:1.