Discussion in 'Science' started by Hoosier8, Aug 15, 2021.
Safety as in a fire hazard
In my life, I have never ever seen an insurance stipulation on an ICE vehicle that it will cost you more to park in your garage. They obviously perceive EV's a risk.
That's because the level of risk is low for gas cars.
And, I cited an analysis group that studied this and found that EV risk is no larger than that.
Right, all links included.
I drive a Vauxhall Movano but it's 7 years old. So let's ignore that and lets pretend I need to buy a new van. So I go to Vauxhall -
and I enquire about a L3 H2 Movano (So that's Length 3 and Height 2) in heavy (both diesel and electric do a heavy model for payload)
So in the link, I find the diesel is £33,568.33 excluding VAT and it does between 25.4mpg and 34.4mpg. So the average is 29.9mpg, mine does 28.5mpg.
I find the electric is £55,998.33 excluding VAT and it has a 70kw battery showing 130 mile range. The electric price has been reduced by £6,000 by the government.
I find a map on household electric rates per kWh, I'm in area 14.27p per kWh.
So then I find the nearest electric car charge point to me, about 3 miles away. It's free as you shop at 7Kw and and 50Kw at 28p per kWh.
The price of diesel fluctuates greatly, it's currently 145.9p per litre. In the UK, there's 4.54 litres to the gallon.
VAT (value added tax is 20%), so the diesel van is £40,282 and the electric £67,198. The difference between the two is £26,916.
To run the van on diesel per mile, it is £1.459 x 4.54 = £6.62386 / 29.9mpg = 22p per mile
To run the van on electric per mile, it is 14.27p x 70 = £9.989 / 130 miles = 7.7p per mile (at home, which I can't do)
To run the van on electric per mile, it is 28p x 70 = £19.60 / 130 miles = 15p per mile (at Tesco's which I can do)
So the electric van is 22p - 7.7p = 14.3p per mile cheaper (which I can't get)
So the electric van is 22p - 15p = 7p per mile cheaper (which I can get)
So £26,916 / 14.3p = 188,223 miles
So £26,916 / 7p = 384,514 miles
The average of those two is something like 286,368.5 miles. The diesel van has a yearly road tax of £275 per year, which normally increases by £5 per year. So that's to take into consideration.
So there's like for like, the same van in diesel and in electric, both brand spanking new and both at manufacturers details. Find a cheaper or dearer electric tariff or a cheaper or dearer diesel forecourt price etc.. but the price difference between the vehicles, in my case, wipes out any fuel saving.
I'll probably hit 100,000 miles in the lifetime of my van. If I factor in servicing, road tax, insurance etc.. electric is simply a no go.
Then the what if's? What if EV cost comes down or goes up? What if road tax increases on the diesel and is implemented on EV per mile? What if diesel is taxed sky high to deter ICE vehicle ownership? And lastly, all completely irrelevant to me because I can't charge from home, plus, the EV van cannot tow.
In conclusion, it's very easy to cherry pick one facet to make a claim, but when you look at and factor in all sides, it's a different kettle of fish. And the pro EV'ers are good at cherry picking just one side and they believe prices are going to tumble. In a capitalist world when governments are forcing people down the EV route, do you think manufacturers will reduce prices as sales begin to soar!
So if I have to have an EV, I would go down the hydrogen route because it's less inconvenience.
The main takeaway I see here is that it's probably best to buy a diesel van - at least in terms of cost. I find that unfortunate, as I am interested in CO2 emissions and I do not like driving near diesel vehicles.
I haven't cherry picked anything. I certainly did not pick the Ford F-150 pickup as a likely best case for being complimentary to EVs. If I wanted to do that, I'd pick a small passenger car, NOT a work vehicle. I picked it because it is the highest volume personal vehicle in America and there is an EV version.
Yes, I do believe prices will come down for the reasons that capitalism causes prices to come down. That includes competition, defraying initial development expenses, the benefits to corporations of sales volume. I see the infrastructure for EVs increasing significantly - at grocery stores, shopping complexes, restaurants, etc. Plus, new apartment complexes are prepared for this feature that customers want.
Also, fuel expense has been shown to be an influence in vehicle purchase decisions. When fuel prices go up, sales volumes tilt toward more fuel efficient vehicles. When fuel price goes down, people buy larger and less fuel efficient vehicles. The lower cost per mile of EVs will make a difference.
Battery and charging technology is moving forward significantly, shortening charging times, lengthening distance per charge, reducing cost, etc.
Finally, a lot of people are still insecure about EV distance and fueling. That will be reduced as the public gets more experience.
Today in America hydrogen is more expensive than petrol and there are essentially zero charging stations.
Hydrogen has a LONG way to go to be competitive.
Hydrogen has the same distance to go to EV's as EV's have got to go with ICE vehicles, imo.
One more question comes to mind:
Why does the Movano and the highly similar offerings from Renault and Nissan have essentially ZERO presence in the USA?
As you present it, it seems surprising to me that it wouldn't be competitive here.
The Vauxhall Movano, Nissan NV 400, Renault Master etc.. are the same van, just with a different badge. You will find that in most cases, the parts are Renault.
I did notice on the Vauxhall link, the weight of the EV is heavier due to the batteries, so the payload is lower, but that wouldn't affect me. It's just having towing capability that's important.
There are 11 hydrogen filling stations in the UK, I would have to travel 189 miles to fill up. A kilo of hydrogen is £10 and a fill is similar to petrol at the moment.
I'm not sure how you figure this.
You have NO idea what a hydrogen Movano would be like in ANY dimension - mileage, cost, fueling ability, etc.
And, we DO know what EVs are like, as there are large numbers of many models being sold and driven today. And, I'd add that owners are loving them.
That doesn't mean that EV is better or even appropriate for every type of vehicle or for every owner (such as the limited charging choices of apartments, or perhaps in regions that are not installing charging infrastructure). But, for cars, there is good success today and that success is being extended toward passenger vans an pickup trucks.
Yes, I discovered the equivalent models as I somewhat indicated.
But, they really have no presence in America. The Nissan NV200 can be found on-line. I don't see any of the rest. There is no Vauxhall or Renault here.
Is Vauxhall Opel in America?
Renault cars always used to be on my avoid list because doing clutches etc.. involved removing the engine. I avoid anything French and Italian, well, to my knowledge until I looked at parts for my van.
I think there was once an Opel presence in America.
If Vauxhall or Opel vehicles are sold here today, it's under some different name - such as Nissan, with the NV200. And, I don't see NV400 mentioned at all.
One could have something shipped here, but I've heard it is prohibitive due to the changes required to get it to be registerable.
It might require US compliant crash testing, for example. In the US, there are regulations on just about every part of a car - the steering wheel, the radio knobs, any glass, lights, gas tank filler tubes - almost literally every piece.
Maybe it can be done, but I don't hear of anyone importing any vehicle not sold here and made for America. And, there ARE cool cars in UK that someone here might want.
Here's some secondhand NV400's
Looks like Opel in the US came under Buick, and Opel is in Europe whilst in the UK, they're Vauxhall.
Show the evidence that supports your assertion. If you're stating as a fact that the tech statement was false, it's your obligation to supply the evidence of your statement being true. So, feel free to add some citations. I don't take your word for it.
I see folks write these things, and wonder if they've ever actually seen the complexity and parts required to keep a modern ev going. And while there might not be motor parts, they have significantly more complex computation and presentation systems that are all amazingly fragile tend to break, and get quickly obsolesced. Think how rapidly you'll have to replace basic systems, phone/car interfaces, etc because cars will become so dependent on those now consumables that must always be maintained.
Oh, and because their drives don't actually like to drive them, the market for replacement suspensions, brakes, wheels/tires, body panels, etc will still have to be serviced by someone. As dealership models like Tesla aren't designed to actually service these cars, what happens unless the secondary market steps in? Likely, as with how disposable tech is these days, is the expectation that these things just find there way into the scrap yards? Think of the number of future superfund sites that creates....
Did I mention that in order to produce all of the high tech surfaces and parts they all are highly dependent on an appropriate supply of petrochemicals in order to be produced and continue to run? It's kind of superficial and stupid to believe that the use of EVs is going to eliminate that need.
Ill just predict that as folks have to transition, basic costs for electricity capacity that currently doesn't exist will have to get born by the consumers, and because it also competes with heating and cooling across multiple verticals prices of energy will go up. A lot.
My comment was that you can't find these vehicles in the USA.
And, I'm curious why.
Those systems are not specific to EVs. Gas cars have these systems, too. My car gets routing information checked through its internet connection, for example.
This is just more nonsense. Tesla has service locations. There is no real reason that points of sale should do the maintenance on site.
And, your comments on suspensions hits me as absolutely absurd.
You can complain about batteries, but after that you are just being ridiculous. Yes, cars do have to be manufactured.
You need to explain this one. And, you better have some sort of evidence to cite. You aren't bringing up anything new, if you can not find a cite that supports your claim, you need to think about that.
You have various vans, just tweaked for the American market. You have the Mercedes Sprinter, under Fiat you have the Ram Promaster 2500 which is based on the Ducato.
You probably have the Nissan NV range but changed for the US market, in body style and size. The manufacturers are in most countries, just tweaked and badged differently for different countries.
So, turns out you haven't actually thought through these things as evidenced by your comments. My first question about buying a truck from Rivian was, where, if it breaks, do you get it repaired at... there aren't any yet.Tesla are limited to large markets making owning them if you're out in the sticks likely very not convenient at best. None of these issues have been addressed adequately by the EV manufacturers, until more folks start buying from more established brands that do have these kinds of distribution service centers.(VW, GM, Ford,) etc.
True story, my first experience was with a Tesla S demo drive where the salesperson tried showing off the auto drive function, and the car hit a curb and destroyed boy a wheel, tire, and the suspension. It happened at a dealership that didn't have a service department, so the car had to ride a truck (diesel) that delivered it to a service center, and then had to ride back (diesel) to the dealership.
Don't be mad that you aren't informed. Get informed. And instead of lashing out at those who can inform you, do you own research and think about it a little before you write something like the above that is hilariously funny.
GM owns them, and I am unaware of any of those vehicles being sold here since the end of the Chevy SS Chevy Malibu or Pontiac G8/g6 series. Opel do rebrand Buick in Europe and GM/Chevy vehicles as well.
Not sure about the relationship between Opel and Nissan, but allegedly Nissan trucks/vans and GM are associable, although not widely marketed.
When they stop spontaneously bursting into flames, I'm sure the insurance actuary tables will reflect that.
Yes, I mentioned that. The closest we have to your Movano is the Nissan NV200 - which I would assume was improved in the UK when it moved to the NV400, which is not available here.
When dealing with hydrogen, why mess on with electric batteries? Why not just convert ICE vehicles?
Cite your claim. Or, retract it, please.
Above I quoted the testing agency that does analysis for the NTHSB.
They state that EVs are no more of a risk for fire than are gas cars - in fact, they said EVs are probably LESS of a risk for fire.
Separate names with a comma.