I hope this is not a sign that American efforts to drive a wedge between Iran and Russia are bearing fruit. The issue of policing the deescalation zones are supposed to be handled through the three party talks in Astana, which have the blessing of Syria's government and include Iran and Turkey along with Russia. Those talks didn't reach a conclusion and the idea that the Russians can then decide who is to police this area on their own seems to put the Russians in the same position as the Americans and others whose involvement in Syria is outside of the mandate given to them by the Syrian government. Unless the Russians can show that this arrangement has the approval of the Syrian government (which I doubt it does), this arrangement is illegitimate. https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c226031ac3f_story.html?utm_term=.c0abf1fc1b09
Checking the news on this issue, while the Syrian government hasn't endorsed this particular deal between the Russians and the Americans, it appears to implicitly accept it as it has declared a temporary ceasefire in the area to last until Thursday in anticipation of the Astana talks. https://www.theatlantic.com/news/ar...ares-brief-truce-ahead-of-peace-talks/532614/
Well yes it appears this is also part of Putin and Trumps talks, Putin and Trump agree on ceasefire in Syria http://tass.com/world/955284 http://time.com/4849314/us-russia-syria-cease-fire-agreement/ Today at noon (I'm ahead so guess for most everyone else it means tomorrow at noon) Did Putin exclude Turkey and Iran because it's in the South? Near Jordan and Israel.
Russian, Saudi, and Israeli interests align in more countries than they diverge. The Russians have had pretty good relations with Israel for a while, and Russia-Saudi relations have seen a warming as of late. As it becomes clearer that Assad is staying, I think that Russia suddenly finds itself with an open hand in the region to realign itself with long-term interests. The Israelis surely won't complain about Russian military police in southern Syria.
I really like to know if the US-Russian agreement has been coordinated with the Syrian government or not? Without their assent, these deals aren't worth much. And Russia would have no right to deploy military police or any force on the ground in Syria if the Syrians oppose it. That would simply run counter to everything the Russians have stood for and been saying up to now. So that is the issue I am looking for, while certainly, there are a plethora of states who are trying to use their influence to create differences between Iran and Russia in Syria. Among them the Israelis, Wahhabi Arabia, along with the US.
I'm wondering the same thing. I assume the Russians have some reason to believe the Syrians will follow them on this, or else it's a completely meaningless event. The Russians aren't a necessary member of the pro-Assad coalition, but their air force has a significant deterring effect with regard to the US. Maybe Assad is afraid that losing their support would allow American airstrikes to target his forces with impunity? It's also possible that all sides have come to believe that they won't be able to gain any significant leverage over the others at this point, and that continuing the fighting is pointless. How are Iranian media outlets portraying all of this?
Did a little digging here and there. The story by Russian state-owned media outlets is that the Trump admin came to see a continued Assad government as the best way forward. This certainly converges with my view of the situation. Al-Masdar has a very vapid article on the event, which hints to me that the Syrians aren't sure how they want to portray it yet. Part of me thinks that the increased threat of Turkish involvement is driving Putin and Trump here. The Syrians might be concerned about the same event. Turks in Idlib would be troubling for everybody.
Russia is taking on some burden to allay Israel's fears, and maintain the peace in Syria. Netanyahu trusts Putin, so Assad has no alternative but to have Russian troops police the deescalation zones. Otherwise the Syrian army will be under continuous Israeli bombardment, and possibly a US invasion as well.
First of all there re diffrences between Iran Syria and Russia, Iran presence in Syria also undemines Assad's fake control over Syria, pretending Syria is a normal state after 6 years of bloody civil war is propaganda, Assad relies on foreign forces and the situation in his country affects neighboring states - so other countries do have a say in the situation there.
So far, I have read a matter of fact attitude. Emphasizing that the agreement was between Russia and the US, but not taking a clear stance.
Just saw an interview in which Erdogan said "Assad must go." He could just be saying that to have a stronger baseline in Astana, but I'm sure that the Syrians and Iranians can't be too comfortable with it. Will likely make the pro-Assad coalition more willing to deal with the US at a sooner hour. It was an interview by France 24.
