Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by MrTLegal, Jan 11, 2020.

  1. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    A rate that is accelerating, right?
     
  2. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No. In fact the global average temperature from satellite data has been nearly constant for the last 2 decades despite CO2 going up and models predicting warming..
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  3. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Do you select the "last 2 decades" solely because you want to start your trend line with one of the only top 20 hottest year on record from before 2010, which was ~1997?

    Here is my support for the accelerating warming.

    1880–1889 −0.274 °C (−0.493 °F) N/A
    1890–1899 −0.254 °C (−0.457 °F) +0.020 °C (0.0360 °F)
    1900–1909 −0.259 °C (−0.466 °F) −0.005 °C (−0.00900 °F)
    1910–1919 −0.276 °C (−0.497 °F) −0.017 °C (−0.0306 °F)
    1920–1929 −0.175 °C (−0.315 °F) +0.101 °C (0.182 °F)
    1930–1939 −0.043 °C (−0.0774 °F) +0.132 °C (0.238 °F)
    1940–1949 0.035 °C (0.0630 °F) +0.078 °C (0.140 °F)
    1950–1959 −0.02 °C (−0.0360 °F) −0.055 °C (−0.0990 °F)
    1960–1969 −0.014 °C (−0.0252 °F) +0.006 °C (0.0108 °F)
    1970–1979 −0.001 °C (−0.00180 °F) +0.013 °C (0.0234 °F)
    1980–1989 0.176 °C (0.317 °F) +0.177 °C (0.319 °F)
    1990–1999 0.313 °C (0.563 °F) +0.137 °C (0.247 °F)
    2000–2009 0.513 °C (0.923 °F) +0.200 °C (0.360 °F)
    2010–2019 0.753 °C (1.36 °F) +0.24 °C (0.432 °F)
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  4. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    If you mean constant because you start your trend line at the highest starting point from ~1997, then you are being disengenuous.
     
  5. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The last two decades show no warming. The trend line shows steady warming with no acceleration.
     
  6. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    You aren't backing yourself up in any way shape or form.
     
  7. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm merely explaining to you what your graph means. No warming in the last 2 decades and no acceleration in the warming rate as shown by the trend line. BTW, why does the trend line start at 1982 and end at 2009 ??

    BTW, anytime data is posted comparing one specific date to another it is a clear example of 'how to lie with statistics'.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  8. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    “Climate is too chaotic, for many reasons such as geography,” such that a global temperature rise affects regions differently, that is why I posted the links to the Tibetan Plateau, just because one place doesn’t melt does not guarantee another will not. Your statement that “Glaciers melt at the top every summer,” required the posting of links to glaciers not melting.

    Some glaciers will melt; pay attention, I said "some." It will not be because of one degree more in one place is the zombie apocalypse; the global zombie plague will be worse in different regions due to geography. Climate doesn’t just stay in one place though, imagine an airborne zombie plague, or airborne HIV, the global rise contributes to extremes by region which then effects other regions.

    There were plant-eating dinosaurs in Antarctica, where only now lichen exists. It will not be a net beneficial if we are the cause of that happening again.

    Ice does melt at temperatures (air temp) below freezing, the sun on the ice raises the surface temp; because of your previous statement, "BTW glaciers don’t melt," we must demand more precision.

    The melting point of ice can change too:
    https://sciencing.com/substances-affect-rate-melting-ice-7464647.html
    https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/water-melting-temperature-point-pressure-d_2005.html
     
  9. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    You asked, "What books are on the internet ??" I gave some. Go read some, you might learn.
     
  10. tharock220

    tharock220 Well-Known Member

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    Again, the point seems to be missed. The change in temperatures aren't in dispute.
     
  11. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Some glaciers have been receding for centuries. Nothing new here.
     
  12. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What books have you read and can recommend ??
     
  13. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    Probably should Google "linear acceleration graph," click images, see what it looks like.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  14. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    Just go read one book of each genre. What one likes is impossible to tell. You will find the movie versions of books are way off sometimes; guy doesn't get his girl back in Count of Monte Cristo, Aladdin did not go look for his father, his father died of heart failure because his son was lazy, Quasimodo had nappy hair and a flat nose, versions of Robinson Crusoe where Friday was black, no, even have copy where the back cover of the book is wrong. Like don't just read science books, but read Goldfinch by Donna Tartt, old books like Moby Dick, science fiction like Kim Stanley Robinson's mars books. Hell, read all of Shakespeare.
     
  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The models predicted the rate of warming into the future, largely accurately.

    That is the finding from the study in the OP.
     
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  16. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The slope of the trend line is constant. There is no acceleration. Slope is d_/dt and acceleration is d(d_/dt)/dt.
     
  17. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So again you have nothing. You cannot recommend one book on climate science that you have read ?? Too funny.
     
  18. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
  19. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    Funny is not knowing how a graph of a parabola works with regard to temps accelerating over time.
    You need lots more with regard to books before you get into a real test of science.
     
  20. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A straight line is a parabola ???
     
  21. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    If that graph of Global Warming isn't a parabola, but is a straight line that continues, say hello to hell on earth.
    One of my jobs once was reading the thermometer for the ordnance magazine. Here is the thing, replace temp with mph, you go really fast, eventually so fast your motorcycle can’t go any faster, then you are not accelerating. Here’s the other thing, if the taking of temps where we store bombs shows the temperature going up like the Global Warming graph, temps are accelerating, and eventually bombs blow up.
     
  22. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  23. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The temperature of the earth has been much higher than it is now with no ill effects. Cloud cover is a negative feedback which limits temperature.
     
  24. DivineComedy

    DivineComedy Well-Known Member

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    https://skepticalscience.com/clouds-negative-feedback.htm

    They really do not know for sure about clouds.

    After a hurricane, it gets cool here in Florida, and that is good if roofing.

    There were plant eaters in Antarctica, but many places people now call home were underwater then. Some critters and plants don’t take climate change well, and some may evolve around Chernobyl, but not all can evolve.

    Things go up and they do down, someone might be irritating to ride behind, constantly up and down on the gas, but overall though still accelerating.
     
  25. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The climate models don’t know anything about clouds.

    Increasing at a constant rate is not acceleration.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020

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