STUNNING! IHME Reduces Their Model Predictions AGAIN! -- Now Say Peak Is ON EASTER and Only 60,000 D

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Gatewood, Apr 8, 2020.

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  1. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    There is no reliable and effective antibody test!
     
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  2. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Complete and utter bovine excrement!

    I did my own numbers back then and I DID specify that they are DEPENDENT upon what preventative measures are taken or not taken just like everyone else who was making those estimates.

    FACTS matter!
     
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  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Very few states are taking draconian measures at this stage. Some states have been so lax as to effectively negate whatever measures they have "taken" to date. Allowing large gatherings over Easter and taking your dog to be groomed and shopping at Home Depot make SAH policies utterly meaningless.
     
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  4. HumbledPi

    HumbledPi Well-Known Member

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    Your party is the party of rapists and sexual predators, your god Trump even admitted to in on camera. "grab 'em by the *****. you can do anything".
     
  5. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    WE MUST BE HONEST WITH OURSELVES HERE. The IHME model was wrong, by orders of magnitude.

    There are a lot of important questions going into the future about these models, the data used, the analytics used, transparency at every level, etc. If we are going to let these models become evidence for governmental actions that deny liberty, take property, justify arrests, justify internment and in the extreme justify triage that limits care in anticipation of critical shortage then we must set basic standards. This sober discussion needs to be had.

    MrTlegal, this is your wheelhouse, start the discussion on above. Seems you might help us focus on maintaining our liberty whilst changing how we deal with this emerging type of health data.

    This is really interesting as well: https://www.kinsahealth.co/enterprise/kinsa-insights/ interesting new tech on capturing and reporting health data on individuals real time that can help, but without limits and rules could be fraught with hazard.

    The IHME model "estimated trajectories" from the beginning (not just the 27 March release but all prior estimations as well) included ADDITIONAL stay at home, social distancing, non-essential work closings etc. including enforcement!

    Cheers

    The 27 March IHME analytics release below:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/world/uni...coronavirus-us-could-see-2300-deaths-day-even

    Coronavirus: US could see 2,300 deaths a day, even with social distancing, study says
    • Analysis shows fatalities may top 80,000 over next four months, with ‘dramatically’ worse outcome if precautionary measures are relaxed
    • Researchers at University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation reviewed latest Covid-19 data at local, national and international levels

    Agence France-Presse
    Published: 4:10am, 27 Mar, 2020

    “Our estimated trajectory of Covid-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital workers, and government agencies,” said Christopher Murray, IHME director.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/world/uni...coronavirus-us-could-see-2300-deaths-day-even

    MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S)
    Deaths, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use.

    RESULTS
    Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
    In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.
     
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  6. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Quantum, the estimated trajectory of the IHME model included social distancing.

    These models are here to stay but we need to honestly discuss their weaknesses before we accept them as evidence that grants government powers Kings only dreamed of.

    Let us have this honest discussion.

    Cheers
     
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  7. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    BAAAHHHHH we all know who shut down travel first and how the lefties cried then all the lefty countries started shutting down borders like crazy. You guys are hilarious but typical. Ignore every horrible prediction you argued as fact saying that it's on Trump, then when it starts looking better scream as loud as you can that Trump did nothing and it would've just happened. Pretty soon you'll be arguing it's flu like and Trump overreacted killing the economy. Its truly hilarious watching the spin. I was looking back at some posts form Mid March and it's a comedy now. You had one guy that is posting is the virus thread showing the 20-30million chart saying this is due to Trumps actions on testing and shutting the border down, then a lower chart saying if he would listen to the Scientist that's what it would look like. Guess which one turned out. You have another lefty poster that posts about 200 posts daily again losing his mind because Trump said their projections were that NY wasn't going to need an additional 30k ventilators, four days later Cuomo was saying his 11k in stock pile would stay there until needed, guess who was right. Bet our Legal eagle doesn't want to defend his posts concerning that thread, stupid Trump lol.

    Bottom line Trump handled this one pretty dang good, shut down travel, organized business to mass produce needed items keeping healthcare and testing running across all states, worked with all Governors and praise went both ways even with the lefty governors, shut down the economy even though the left said that's all he cared about, ramrodded the biggest relief project ever to help everyone in need, and avoided the left's attempt to make a political fight by cutting out any trump business from relief, never made it political even with the MSM and lefties in government tried their hardest to make the virus political, made sure America knew exactly where we stood with daily briefings letting drs and leaders answer all questions since Feb and now we're seeing the hope he's told us was coming. Trump did a great job you know it, I know it and America knows it.
     
  8. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    So let me get this right your touting you were right by estimating a likely outcome of 975,000" deaths?


    "Using the Covid-19 Low 1% estimate the CDC Range provides a Low of 120,000 and a High of 610,000.

    Using the Covid-19 High 3% estimate the CDC Range provides a Low of 360,000 and a High of 1,830,000.

    So with those numbers the death toll from Covid-19 could be a LOW as 120,000 and as HIGH as 1,830,000.

    If we make the assumption that the final number is somewhere in the middle we end up with 975,000.

    However these numbers do depend on a number of factors which include the effectiveness of the containment measures that might be implemented."
     
  9. Labouroflove

    Labouroflove Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Because we've never had the current demographics. The over 70 cohort has never been this large in human history. Also, never have we had such large cohorts that are so physiologically weak.

    Medical science has made wonderful advancements, its extended life and quality of life beyond our wildest dreams within my lifetime. It has though, honestly, created a bubble of people that are fragile.

    Worth discussion.
     
  10. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Yes, let us have an honest discussion. Look at the post I just made in the following thread:

    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...higher-than-previously-thought.569026/page-13

    No models, just comparing exponential growth to the actual numbers of cases.

    These numbers show that social distancing works, it has broken the math of exponential growth, as expected. It also shows that we would have 10 million plus cases, if we hadn't started social distancing.

    In fact, we would have started social distancing anyway, government intervention or not. It would have just taken pure panic in the population to do so. That panic would have come, had we even reached 1 million cases two weeks ago. And we were on track to those numbers.

    Social distancing has flattened the curve, as predicted. Isn't science wonderful?
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
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  11. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    My estimates were subsequently CONFIRMED by the original CDC estimates that came out just 4 days later.

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...coronavirus/articleshow/74623030.cms?from=mdr

    So both myself and the CDC were in the EXACT SAME BALLPARK at that point in time.

    Yes, subsequent ACTIONS have resulted in lower estimates but AT THAT TIME the DATA that the CDC had available and that I was using for my own estimates were exceptionally close.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
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  12. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Yeap you were both wrong and it seems Trump's thoughts on how this would turn out by asking Americans daily to do their civic duty and social distance was right. Congrats, now the question is why were you, the CDC and especially WHO were so damn wrong. I'll give you a pass because your a partisan but the others have some serious questions that need to be answered. We have to be able to trust numbers when killing an economy and putting what 20 million out of a job overnight.
     
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  13. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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  14. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Complete and utter NONSENSICAL DRIVEL!

    Neither the CDC nor I were wrong because we clearly STIPULATED that those numbers were based upon NO ACTION BEING TAKEN!

    As far as your LYING criminal IMPOTUS goes he is DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE for the death toll here in the States being much HIGHER than necessary.

    I just made this post about the COMPARISON between 4 EU nations and the DIFFERENCE it has made to their OUTCOMES when it comes to the DELAYS in implementing preventative measures.

    http://politicalforum.com/index.php...-in-the-world.569531/page-160#post-1071582254

    Furthermore it was your criminal IMPOTUS's abject FAILURE to take IMMEDIATE ACTION that has killed the economy. Had he ACTED quickly the damage to the economy would have been far less than it is because of his Callous Disregard for the LIVES of hardworking Americans.
     
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  15. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    As I recall Germany openly published their original Covid19 test so that any other nation could use it without any cost. The criminal IMPOTUS ignored it because conservative neoliberalism DEMANDS that there MUST be a way to make PROFITS off the misfortunes of We the People.

    Needless to say that same crap will apply for the antibody test.
     
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  16. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    Ok didn't realize 975k deaths and the new projected 60k deaths were the same. We understand what you were trying to do. Trust me we all understand you were taking the bad numbers and projecting failure for Trump. In the mean time your projection was only off by 600% so yea you were right Derideo and that criminal potus was wrongggggggg…...:eyepopping::eyepopping::eyepopping::eyepopping:

    Here's some more predictions you made
    It is already way too late for effective containment measures.

    Only We the People can now save ourselves given how badly your criminal IMPOTUS has FAILED in HIS job to protect us.

    Right now it is looking like 1 in every 25 people who are infected could die and we have no way of knowing how many are infected at this point in time.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
  17. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    NEVER since the Spanish flu have we seen deaths from flu anything CLOSE to the 1000 per day we see here

    SO just stop
     
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  18. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    But thanks for establishing that you have no idea what "containment measures" mean. That turned out to be 100% correct.

    That your criminal IMPOTUS has FAILED is now DOCUMENTED FACT and yes, it is only We the People that can save ourselves. Of course that presupposes that we do what is right and IGNORE the crap that your criminal IMPOTUS has been bloviating on about since this began.

    You also do not know what 1 in 25 means either. In percentage terms it means 4%. Using the CURRENT numbers on Worldometers we have 435k infected and almost 15k dead. That is 3.4% which is the same as 1 in 29 right NOW. The death toll is about to RISE according to your own criminal IMPOTUS so that is another prediction that is turning out to be on the money.

    Bookmarked for when this over and then we will know just how bad the death toll that your criminal IMPOTUS caused turns out.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
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  19. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree that this is different from the flu although it's somewhat similar. This bad boy is contagious as heck but it does beg the question, if we didn't have annual flu shots would it look closer to Covid? The annual flu mutates yearly there isn't a one all kill all vaccine will covid be that potent in the end? Interesting what the scientist find out about Covid after this SOB gives us a chance to really dive into the data.
     
  20. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    I know, Trump and his team has told us every freaking Day since March. We argued its guidance would help, you argued he criminal every day and tried to justify with outlandish projections. Now your projecting 108,697 will die since we have 434,791 confirmed cases, we'll bookmark that number for you.

    Look I like alot of your posting in the apolitical threads but in most you've made this about Trump since day one, even when most realized this virus wasn't a political virus. We tried to tell you don't trust WHO, we tried to tell you models are based on inputs and there wasn't enough data to be projecting the numbers you were projecting and making a political argument against Trump. At this point it looks like you were way off base, as are most of your political statements about Trump. If your going to be the head Trump is the devil cheerleader you can expect to be challenged on your "projections". I'm glad your Corona projections are way off and you should be too.
     
  21. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    When I was a kid people said now we have antibiotics and the polio vaccine, you'll never have to worry about infections and sicknesses, or see mass death, like our generation did.
     
  22. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    Because he has been a huge failure on this from day one.

    His response to this has been similar in terms of bungling and lying, to that of China...only WORSE

    Look at the friggin numbers
     
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  23. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    We accept flu deaths like highway deaths, as if they were nothing at all.

    I hope when the vaccine for corona comes that it is about fifty times more efficacious than the sorry flu shot.
     
  24. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    WTF? :eek:

    1 in 25 is NOT 25%!

    It is only 4%!

    That comes to just 17,392 deaths and we are already at 14,797 which is only 2,595 short and we have had death tolls of 1,900+ for 2 days in a row and that daily number is still INCREASING.

    But thanks for flushing your own credibility on this topic down the toilet!
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
  25. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    LOL obviously look at them projections down from 2 million deaths to 60k.
     

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