The 2018 midterm election in the HOR: 3 states swung more R, 47 swung more D

So, here the current semi-final national data from the 2018 mid-term elections, with 9 states left to certify:



So, we are looking at almost 113.4 million votes cast, circa 8 million more than in the 2000 presidential election and 8 million less than in the 2004 presidential election. The Ds have garnered 60.7 million votes (more than Kerry in 2004), the Rs have received almost 51 million votes (less than Bush 2004 but more than Bush 2000), making for a +9.7 million raw-vote lead for the Ds, which is almost +8.6%, larger than both R leads in 2010 and 2014. This margin is also larger than any presidential election since 1984.

Note that the growth rate over 2014 is an impressive 42.4%, but there is a HUGE D/R disparity as to what drove that massive growth rate.

If you look under "Mar %", you will see three figures: the %margin for 2018, then for 2014 and then, the "swing" value. Using simple math, getting from 2014 to 2018 means that 15.46% (15.5%) of the electorate shifted from R to D. This is usually called the "swing".

Here the link to all of the tables, 2018 over 2014, HOR:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DBdjJubA8xrZWogrmqPoCoFmao7a0CZCkdbsTIzN22g/edit?usp=sharing

There you can see all of the stats for all 435 HOR seats yourself. On the statewide PV level, in 47 of 50 states, the swing was toward the Democratic Party. Remember, a negative swing in red (GOP) = a postive swing for blue (DEM), and visa-versa.

However, in three states, comprising 6 House seats, the swing was toward the GOP: in ID, WV and ND:



In Idaho (2 House seats), time almost stood still, but only almost: the ID statewide margin went from R +26.43 in 2014 to +26.97 in 2018, which (when you round from the thousands of a point to a hundredth of a point) means that the state shifted 0.55% toward the GOP, bucking the DEM swing overall. This is a statistically insignificant swing, but a swing, nonetheless.

In West Virginia (3 House seats), the margin swung almost exactly 4 points toward the GOP.

And in North Dakota (1 seat, AL), the state moved from a double-digit lead in the teens to a double-digit lead in the twentiess, 2014 to 2018, making for a +7.6 point swing toward team red.

Now there was a small number of individual seats in the HOR throughout the USA that also swung red, very slightly and in the case of ND, the statewide PV is the result of only one seat. In WV, all three seats swung red, while in ID, ID-01 swung red while ID-02 swung blue.

So, the good news for the GOP is that it didn't get drenched everywhere. The bad news for the GOP is that when you compare those three state's overal take of the NPV, 2014 to 2018, all three shrunk slightly.

Combined, ID, ND and WV were 1.41% of the total electorate in the HOR races in 2014. In 2018, they were 1.31% of the same.

BTW, 6 seats / 435 seats = 1.38% of the HOR, right in between the actual take of the electorate.

This means that for the other 47 states, which made up 98.69% of the 2018 electorate, the swing was toward the Democratic Party, which I will soon deal with in a separate thread. That's a pretty sweeping swing, to say the least.

So, those were the cold, hard numbers.


-Stat

 

The house changes all the time.

I predict it will flip back to the republicans one day.

Now if you look at long term changes overall, the democrats are still way down over the last decade in seats lost which is more indicative of a trend than one election is.

If you go back 50 years it favors the democrats again but if you go back 100 it favors the republicans.

You can pick and choose what statistical data you want to use to represent your argument but one election certainly isn't a good one.

 

Those are actual, certified numbers. It's not an argument. Better luck to you next time.