The Alternative Ukraine Thread

Russian Offensive Campaign ...

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin issued two decrees in a reported effort to assist stateless peoples and residents of Donbas and Ukraine live and work in the Russian Federation.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Slovyansk.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southeast of Bakhmut and west and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces did not conduct any reported offensive operations in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
• The Kremlin likely directed a media outlet closely affiliated with Moscow to criticize the Governor of St. Petersburg Alexander Beglov for failing to incentivize recruitment to volunteer battalions within the city.
• Russian occupation authorities continued efforts to facilitate the integration of the education system in occupied territories in Ukraine according to Russian standards. . . .

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), command posts, and ammunition depots. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian missile units struck a Russian command post in Darivka (approximately 15km northeast of Kherson City) and that Ukrainian forces disrupted Russian GLOCs over the Inhulets River via the Darivka Bridge with missile strikes.[38] Ukrainian officials noted that Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 35th Combined Arms Army at the Sokil Plant in Nova Kakhovka.[39] Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian command post and an ammunition depot in Kherson City, and a concentration of manpower and equipment in Lyubymivka (approximately 18km east of Nova Kakhovka.)[40] Ukrainian aviation struck Russian strongholds in Soldatske and Oleksandrivka (both northwest of Kherson City), and an area of troop and equipment concentration in Vysokopillya on the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[41] Ukrainian missile units also struck Russian ammunition depots in Dudchany (about 58km northeast of Nova Kakhovka) and Davydiv Brid, on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River, and a field ammunition supply point in Voskresenske (approximately 120km southeast of Kherson City).[42] Russian and Ukrainian sources published footage of smoke reportedly after the Ukrainian strikes on a bridge over the Kinka River in Oleshky, approximately 9km southeast of Kherson City.[43] Ukrainian forces have yet to confirm the strike on Russian GLOCs over Kinka River as of the time of this publication. . . .

 

Ukraine Begins Counter Offensive in Russian-Held South. Ukraine announced Monday it has launched a counter-offensive to retake southern areas seized by Russian forces. Ukraine’s military says that the campaign will include the Kherson region and that Ukrainian forces have “unquestionably weakened the enemy” in the area, though it also admitted that Russian forces in the region remain “quite powerful.” Russian officials dismissed the announcement, with the governor of the Russian-annexed Crimea Peninsula, Sergei Aksyonov, calling it “another fake of Ukrainian propaganda.” Reuters

 

Ukrainian forces begin 'shaping' battlefield for counteroffensive, senior US officials say
2 hours ago

 

Ukrainian military hits Russia with 'MacGyvered' weapons

The Ukrainian military has battled Russia with retrofitted equipment, including missiles and rocket systems mounted on trucks and speedboats, experts and officials say.

Death toll on both sides is high »

 

World
Ukrayinska Pravda
Armed Forces of Ukraine break through first line of Russian defence in Kherson Oblast Kakhovka Operational Group

 

Stupid Russians . . .
Ukraine lures Russian missiles with decoys of U.S. rocket system
Ukraine’s military has fooled Russia into firing expensive missiles at decoy HIMARs, the long-range artillery systems supplied by the United States.
By John Hudson

 

Germany’s Scholz Pledges Ukraine Aid for ‘As Long As It Takes.’ German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Tuesday that Berlin will support Ukraine to counter Russia’s invasion “for as long as it takes.” To that end, Scholz said Germany will send “state-of-the-art weapons,” including air defense systems and reconnaissance drones, to Ukraine in the coming weeks. Scholz also said he is “committed” to expanding the EU to include the Western Balkans, as well as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. He also called for Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria to be admitted into Europe’s Schengen area. Scholz warned that reform would be needed to handle such expansions given the EU’s already unwieldy consensus-based bureaucracy. Reuters RFE/RL Politico

 

Ukraine Continues Kherson Counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces are continuing their counteroffensive in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Monday that if Russian forces “want to survive” they must “run away” and “go home.” Kyiv says it has broken through Russian defenses in Kherson, and Britain reports Ukraine has stepped up artillery barrages across the region. Russia’s defense ministry countered Kyiv’s story, saying Russian forces have successfully defended occupied areas and that Ukraine’s offensive “has fallen apart.” Axios BBC Reuters

 

Russia Facing ‘Failures’ With Iranian Drones. Russia has faced “numerous failures” with Iranian-made drones it acquired from Tehran to deploy in its invasion of Ukraine, according to a US official. The assessment comes as Moscow begins receiving Mohajer-6 and Shahed-series unmanned aerial vehicles from Tehran under a deal for hundreds of drones. CNN Reuters Washington Post

 

Russian Offensive Campaign ...

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive operation in Kherson Oblast on August 29.
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced that the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant left for the plant.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, south of Bakhmut, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued efforts to advance around Donetsk City.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects continued efforts to form new battalions, attract new recruits, and coerce conscripts into signing military contracts.
• Ukrainian partisan activity continues to threaten Russian occupation authorities’ control in occupied territories. . . .

Russian and Western sources claimed that Ukrainian forces liberated five settlements during the first day of the counteroffensive, but Ukrainian sources have not announced the liberation of any settlements at the time of this publication. An unnamed military official of an unspecified country told CNN that Ukrainian forces liberated Pravdyne (approximately 34km northwest of Kherson City), Novodmytrivka, and Tomyna Balka (both about 23km due west of Kherson City).[25] The official also stated that Ukrainian forces liberated Arkhanhelske on the eastern bank of Inhulets River and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[26] ISW cannot independently verify CNN’s report and will update its maps if and when more sources confirm the report. The Ukrainian official report about the withdrawal of the 109th regiment that operates in northwestern Kherson Oblast may suggest that Ukrainians have crossed the Inhulets River into Arkhanhelske. Several Russian milbloggers amplified a report from the Telegram-based milblogger Grey Zone (about 276,000 followers) that Ukrainian forces advanced 6km from their bridgehead over the Inhulets River and seized the Sukhyi Stavok settlement (approximately 7km west of Russian GLOCs along the T2207 highway).[27] Ukrainian Former Head of Foreign Intelligence Service Mykola Malomuzh made similar remarks about the liberation of Sukhyi Stavok.[28]

Ukrainian forces also continued to conduct missile strikes on Russian ammunition depots, GLOCs, and strongholds on August 28 and August 29.[29] Beryslav Raion Military Administration Head Volodymyr Litvinov reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian manpower and equipment concentration point at the Beryslav Machine-Building Plant, resulting in a large fire at the plant.[30] Odesa Oblast Military Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk also reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post near the North Crimean Canal just east of Nova Kakhovka, a Russian river crossing in Lvove (west of Nova Kakhovka along the Dnipro River), and an ammunition depot in Havrylivka (approximately 33km south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border).[31] Ukrainian Telegram channels also published footage reportedly showing a strike on the Antonivsky Bridge and a nearby barge.[32] Social media users published footage of reportedly Ukrainian strikes on a Russian ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka.[33] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces launched eight airstrikes at Russian strongholds and manpower and equipment concentration points along the line of contact on August 28.[34] . . .

 

Russians doing what Russians do.


Report: Drunk Russian soldiers in Kherson fired assault rifles at FSB officers in deadly incident

 

Russian Offensive Campaign ...
Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations with ground assaults and strikes against Russian GLOCs across the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces made gains on the ground and have begun striking pontoon ferries across the river.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely setting legal and social conditions for the coerced cultural assimilation of displaced Ukrainians in Russia to erase their Ukrainian cultural identity.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Izyum, south of Bakhmut, and near the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in northern Kherson Oblast.
• An anonymous senior US military official stated that the US believes that Russia is firing artillery from positions around and in the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing efforts to forcibly-integrate schools in occupied Ukraine into the Russian educational system and extending methods of social control.
• Russian forces are continuing to move military equipment into Crimea.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to recruit and deploy volunteer battalions.
• Russian occupation authorities are taking measures to forcibly-integrate Ukrainian schools into the Russian education space in preparation for the approaching school year. . . .

Ukrainian military officials stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is ongoing in Kherson Oblast but did confirm any Ukrainian advances due to operational security measures as of August 30.[20] Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevich stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing to prioritize the destruction of Russian ammunition depots, command posts, and force concentration areas alongside conducting ground maneuvers. Geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian forces have entered Arkhanhelske on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[21] The geolocation can further corroborate the CNN report from August 29 which reported that Ukrainian forces liberated Arkhanhelske on the first day of Ukraine’s counteroffensive operation.[22] Other evidence supports CNN’s report. Ukrainian military officials previously stated that the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forcefully mobilized 109th Regiment fled an unspecified area in Kherson Oblast on August 29.[23] The DNR deployed the 109th Regiment to Arkhanhelske and other settlements along the Inhulets River and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border in late July.[24] All this evidence further indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced to Arkhanhelske[25]

Ukrainian forces intensified their strikes against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), ammunition depots, and strongholds through northern and central Kherson Oblast on August 30. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported on August 30 that Ukrainian forces continued to strike the Antonivsky road and railway bridges over the Dnipro River and the Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River.[26] Russian and Ukrainian social media users uploaded footage that shows the aftermath of the Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivsky Road Bridge.[27] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command also reported that Ukrainian aviation struck Russian forces and concentration points in Kyselivka and Kortyrka, along the frontline in Kherson Oblast.[28] Russian Telegram channels published the video of a smoke plume in Nova Kakhovka reportedly around the area of the Novokahovka Electromechanic Plant (south of the Kakhovka Bridge), though ISW cannot verify the cause or the precise location of the explosion.[29] Russian-appointed officials claimed that Ukrainian HIMARS strikes damaged residential areas in Nova Kakhovka, but ISW cannot verify this claim.[30] Social media footage also showed a smoke plume accompanied by audible explosions in Tavriisk (east Nova Kakhovka), and some social media users reported the activation of Russian air-defense systems.[31] Ukrainian forces also likely struck Beryslav, approximately 10km northeast of Nova Kakhovka and Oleshky, on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[32] Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels also reported explosions in Kherson City and Chornobaivka throughout the day.[33]

Ukrainian partisans likely engaged in combat with Russian forces in Kherson City on August 30. Geolocated social media footage from the Tavriiskyi microdistrict in northern Kherson City featured audible small fire in the distance.[34] Russian war correspondent Mikhail Andronik claimed that Russian security forces found an enclave of “Ukrainian militants” armed with small arms and improvised explosive devices in the Tavriiskyi microdistrict and noted that there was a shootout in the area.[35] Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian reconnaissance group in Kherson City, though it is unlikely that an unsupported Ukrainian reconnaissance element maneuvered from Ukrainian-controlled territory over 10 kilometers through Russian-controlled territory all the way to Kherson City.[36] . . .

 

Ukraine Continues Southern Counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces are continuing their counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. Local officials say Ukraine has had successes in three districts of Kherson region – Kherson, Beryslav and Kakhovka. Russia’s defense ministry paints a different picture, saying Russian forces have shot down three Ukrainian helicopters and four of Ukraine’s fighter jets and have stopped the Ukrainian assault around Mykolaiv-Kriviy Rih. Separately, Ukraine’s emergency services say rocket fire in Mykolaiv port hit grain silos and caused a fire that is still burning. Reuters

 

This thread has played out.

 

Oh no, we should keep it alive at least until December 31, 2022 at which time Ukraine, according to your prediction, will have restored the pre-war borders.

That will be very exciting.

 

I doubt we'll have any trouble staying in touch.
I don't expect the Putin regime to last to the end of the year.
I have moved on to:
Kherson offensive?

 

I'll bet any amount of money the "Putin regime" will be around long after the end of the year.

 

Really? You think the Putin regime will be gone by the end of the year?

Well this prediction will put your IC bona fides to the test.

 

Has nothing to do with IC bona fides. I've been wrong before. But dictators leading failed foreign adventures tend to come to sudden ends.

 

Not those with a good internal security apparatus...unless there is a push from outside. Let's hope that isn't the case.

 

I doubt a push from outside will be necessary.

 

Well here we are, a new year, so how did this thread's predictions pan out?

Well I think we can see that General Ben Hodges, and his avatar on this forum Jack Hayes, were wrong on their prediction that Ukraine would push the Russkies back to the pre war border. It was obvious to me that this prediction was never going to pan out, but why did so many on this forum get suckered in by an obviously nutty prediction?


I think it's still the worship of experts. Hodges is a general, and has a LOT of ribbons, therefore an expert. I don't have nearly as many as ribbon as Hodges, so therefore, I'm not an expert, yet I was still right. Why was that?

I think actually Hodges knew Ukraine wouldn't be able push the Russians back by the end of 2022. However generals are political animals and in the ongoing propaganda war, saying things like Ukraine will push the Russians back to the border by the end of the year gets rewarded, and when reality catches up, no one cares. It's why generals would go to the President every years for 20 years of the Afghan war and say conditions on the ground are steadily improving, right up to the point that we closed the embassy and the Taliban took Kabul. None of those generals ever were challenged on the obvious lies of those previous statements. They were all rewarded. So Hodges has learned the lesson. He's never going to have to explain as an expert how he was so wrong. We'll just go on to the next thing. What's more confusing to me is why people on this forum, who are supposed to have a more than usual average interest in politics, and are generally older to boot, didn't see that?

 

Hodges's view remains essentially accurate, even if the timing is not quite there. The Russian army has been exposed as a hollow shell, and Putin's ramshackle regime is on its last legs.
As for Afghanistan, btw, the generals and the intelligence officers always had an accurate view. That war was lost in Washington, not in Kabul.

 

This still upsets me. It's almost a war crime to open up a country like we (all) did, give them hope, then just abandon them. If this decision was part of a calculated gamble then we lost big time.

Taliban ban women from universities

 

Heh, I had a suspicion that you would push back on your prediction being wrong, but I have to admit, "remains essentially accurate" is pretty brazen. I suppose that's how you are steadfast in your Monroe Doctrine fantasy; you just do not care at all about actual facts, merely pushing some line of propaganda or another.