The Chinese agenda

It may not be very long for you to boast to everybody that you can afford to use US dollars as tissue paper in the toilet.

 

Mentally, yes. He is deep in her mind. She is so obsessed and possessed by the bogeyman that she needs to seek my service of former Taoist exorcist.

 

This is very silly. I am sure you didnt think in such a juvenile way back when you were a liberal. The USA's indebtedness to China is that it depends on her for its living standards, and needs her as a source of growing market demand.

Your pessimism is now looking absurd. Can't you see? You had me worried at one stage but when you show how such pessimism takes you to these conclusions it becomes clear that it is misplaced.

 

Well let me know when she's ready to have a stud horse come in and finish her off.

 

America owes much more than her expanding national debt of $15 trillion. It has current and future fixed unfunded liabilities and obligations valued at $70 to $100 trillion maturing between now and the next twenty five years. There is not enough money on earth to pay this sum even if reduced to present value.

It's not possible to tax, beg, or borrow our way out of this obligation. The only way of doing so is through quantitative easing, i.e., printing money and buying US Treasuries. But this will cause a level of inflation that will
impoverish the US and lead to America becoming like the Wiemar Republic.

Thus, the Treasuries held by the Chinese are ultimately worthless. There might not be outright default, but there is no way to pay these obligations without printing money and inflating its way out of this...which will devalue the Chinese held Treasuries.

 

You tend to forget, an "Embargo" works both ways.

An embargo can be either exports (nothing can be sexprted to the target country), Imports (nothing can be imported from the target country), or both. Cuba is an example of this.

And who cares about energy at all? Personally, I do not. Let them buy all the oil they want. That will not do them much good when their supply of US dollars and other foreign currency is cut in half. When their docks and ships are filled up with their cheap goods, and they have no place to sell them all at.

 

why would other countries embargo against china? US is but one of china's customer, the lost of US customer will hurt them but not enough to destroy them. europe, japan, asia, africa, S.america ARE all biggest trading partner of china. furthermore there are 400 million chinese middleclass willing to spend. dont get any silly ideas without US, china won't survive

 

The US accounts for over 20% of the foreign trade of China. That is a huge percentage of their annual GDP. And around 40% of what is produced in China is actually goods contracted through American companies (Apple, Levi-Strauss, Microsoft, etc). Kill both of them and you have essentially crippled their economy.

And I am not talking about destroying them as a nation, but simply trying to force them to folow through on copyright laws, and to start a fair trade ballance.

The Chinese middle class in this equation does not matter. Because they can't spend if half of them are laid off, and the nation looses a large percentage of it's business.

You seem to be confusing things very much. An embargo would not destroy China, but it would cause a huge impact on the China that we see today. Just like the US at this time, you would not see massive starvation (unless they are unable to import food), you would not see revolution. However, you would see a large percentage of their economy collapse because at a minimum they would loose almost a quarter of their current international sales. And nobody should take that lightly.

And your figures as to who the largest trading partner of China is is way off. The US accounts for 20.3% of their trade. Japan is next, with a total of 8.32%. Then you have South Korea, at 4.55%. Germany is 4.27%.

In fact, the trade to the US from China is larger then all of Europe combined. All of Europe taken together ammount to around 16% of China's foreign trade. And do you really think they can (or will) absorb over double that amount in imports?

 

Good and frank analysis. Be prepared for the day when you will become a citizen of the new Wiemar Republic with all your rooms, including the toilet, decorated entirely with wallpaper of US dollars.

 

so whos gonna force apple, microsoft, stop doing business with china? do i need remind you ALL our politician are buddy buddys with those CEO, their funding came directly from those CEOs pocket. so we stop import things from china, where do you plane to import from before our supplies run dry in a matter of weeks.

no US is not the biggest trade partner anymore, europe is

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/09/18/europe-becomes-china-s-biggest-trade-partner.html

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113366.pdf

also there is a huge internal markets, many of those middle class are working for chinese business, not US. furthermore, middle class in china don't work as labor force in manufacture sections.

also china is US 3rd export partners.

a trade war will hurt both country, its mutual destruction. either way a trade war with china will destroy both countries economy. its naive to think US will come out a trade war with 2nd largest economy, biggest hold of US bond without any harm.

 

Pray to gawd that America doesn't default on the Treasury securities you folks hold.

 

Praying to gawd today that America will default on the Treasury securities tomorrow can be a Sun Zi way of winning without fighting.

A genius like you certainly needs no further explanation from me.

La situation des Etats-Unis est misérable!

 

You seem to mock the notion of "winning without fighting" and in a way, you are kinda mocking your own culture, heritage and ultimately yourself (assuming you are Chinese) because you mock Sun Zi and his teachings from "The Art of War." Only people with low self esteem would mock their own culture, heritage, history and solid wisdom which can be found in "Art of War."

 

This is no joke for yourself, for all Americans and for America. Tell us what will happen to yourself, to all your countrymen and to your country if America defaults on her debts.

 

It is you that mocks the liberal constitution and capitalist ethos of the United States of America in your continual and childish insistence that trade is the same as war. Of course those who understand the real ethos of liberal capitalism, Reagan's and Clinton's versions alike, understand that democratic nations involved in free trade actually never go to war. War is waged by protectionists and nationalists, such as yourself, seeking to demonize other nations and races, as you have been doing here.

The stupid and feudal insistence by you that citizens should bow down before their national institutions and revere their country's history just because it is their country's is another betrayal of the values of the American Revolution. The FF promoted reason over superstition and deference. You may wish to yabba yabba senselessly as you worship the false idols that the State determines represent "patriotism". This is not what Paine, Washington, Franklin or Jefferson were wont to do. They were rebels and invited citizens to continuously rebel against those who would project themselves as their betters or foist a national "heritage" upon them. They made their own heritage; determined their own culture and criticized whomsoever they liked based on reason and logic, rather than blind loyalty or fealty.

Tug your forelock all you like to the ghosts of Christmas past. Those who are lacking self esteem are those weaklings who cover themselves in a flag to hide their blushes. Confident, strong people, at ease with themselves, can talk with ease, balance and poise about the failures and successes alike of the countrymen and women who have gone before them.

 

What do trade and war have in common? Competition. It would be a mistake to say that every competition is bad, or that every competition is a war.

Ludwik Kowalski (see Wikipedia)
.

 

Here is an interesting article Kowalski:

http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-manned-moon-massive-lunar-land-grab-215600572.html

Hopefully this will motivate us (as in the United States) to take our space program more seriously.

 

Not bloody dammmmmm likely. America is engaged in a form of civil war. The moon is irrelevant.

 

We are? What Civil War is that?

 

A decade ago I did not think China would be a realistic threat (even if they wanted to be) in the near future but the progress they have made over the last decade in regards to their economy and military forces is astonishing. In terms of military spending they lag behind the US but what they are producing with the smaller amount of money they are spending is impressive. I guess it's like with consumer goods, China builds them for cheap and copies designs to save research costs. The improvements to their air force are a good example of this. They have basically copied the design of America’s most cost effective multi-role fighter (F-16/J-10) and the most advanced stealth fighter (F-22/J-20). The J-10 only went into production in 2002 and they already have 190 of them. The J-20 will go into production in 2017, so by 2025 they will likely have a more advanced air force than Russia and 2nd only to the USA.

I doubt they would want to get into a full scale conflict with the US and would not have the capability to do so in the near future but for India (long standing disputes), Russia (Siberian resources) and Pacific Rim nations like Japan, Korea, Taiwan (long standing disputes) and Australia (resources) these developments are worrying. In the future the leaders in Europe and President of the USA may find themselves with a Chamberlain moment where they will be forced to decide what to do if China chooses to expand beyond the "peaceful" annexation of Taiwan. In the historical comparison Taiwan would obviously be Austria but I have no idea who the equivalent of Czechoslovakia would be. Whoever is next on their list after Taiwan if anyone I guess?

 

Yep......



We have some old Cold War junkies on PF.

 

If you look at the actual hardware being produced they are spending their money way better than the US is. I explained why above - it's like with consumer goods, China builds them for cheap and copies designs to save research costs. The improvements to their air force are a good example of this. They have basically copied the design of America’s most cost effective multi-role fighter (F-16/J-10) and the most advanced stealth fighter (F-22/J-20). This is real hardware not some intangible comparative number of value such as military spending. Plus they aren't paying their soliders 40K a year or whatever so that is one huge advantage in cost effectiveness right there.

In a war industrial capacity, manpower and the fighting equipment itself are more important than money. Paper value can be destroyed overnight, we saw this in the 2008 crash and countless other times in history. Real and tangible military assets will always be something you should consider.

 

This might also be the case or it could be a combination of this and them being able to build more for less, cheaper work force & wages ect. Whatever the case they are getting good value for their money on their defence spending and I can imagine why the pentagon and other agencies are wondering how they can produce all they currently are with their offical budget.

 

That is a large part of it. Personally, I am saddened by how much of our defense budget is wasted. It seems that the DoD nowadays is mostly a civilian-union jobs program.

30 years ago if you went to a military base, almost everything was done by the military. They manned the gates, ran the chow halls, did the maintenance, even constructed a fair amount of the buildings.

Nowadays if you go onto a major base (or even a minor one), you will find most of these jobs are done by civilians. And almost all of these civilians make more money then the servicemembers that they replace (who end up being paid anyways).

The biggest expenditure of the DoD is payroll. If you want to see the DoD budget shrink by a fair amount, fire all these (*)(*)(*)(*)ed civilians. That is why we have Privates in the first place. To wash the dishes, man the gates, and cut the grass.

 

Were you paying attention during the Debt Ceiling fight? That was one battle in an ongoing figurative civil war.