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The economic impact of Trump's tax cuts is rapidly fading

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by nopartisanbull, Oct 20, 2019.

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  1. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    At the end of October, BEA will release its Q3 "Advance" estimates, and according to several GDP forecasters, Q3 annualized rate will be slightly less/slightly above 2%.

    Also, the central bank now expects GDP to grow at a 2.2% pace for 2019, and its outlook for 2020, unchanged at 2%.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/fed-ups-its-gdp-forecast-for-2019-slightly-to-2point2percent.html

    And for anyone's info, at a 2.2% annualized rate, if we were to exclude "added" government consumptions, historically at its highest, we would end up with an annualized rate of 1.8%, due to the fact FY2019 "added" government consumptions boosted the GDP by 0.4%.
     
    nopartisanbull, Oct 20, 2019
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  2. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    QUESTION: What would keep the ball rolling?

    Negative rates?
    A mega Infrastructure plan?
    NAFTA?
    A trade deal with China?
    Additional tax cuts?
    All of the above?
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
    nopartisanbull, Oct 20, 2019
    #2
  3. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Time for more tax cuts
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  4. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    1. New NAFTA could add $62B to U.S. GDP, boost jobs ... - cbc.ca
      https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-impact-study-1.5104030
      Still, the ITC's model suggests the revised trade deal offers both economic growth — a 0.35 per cent boost to U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP), worth $68.2 billion — and employment ...
      • Author: Janyce Mcgregor
    2. New NAFTA Would Boost U.S. Economy, but Fewer Cars Would ...
      https://reason.com/2019/04/19/new-nafta-will-boost-u-s-economy-but-fewer-cars-will-be...
      2019-04-19 · An independent analysis of President Donald Trump's ballyhooed rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) projects that the new three-way trade deal would provide a …
      • Author: Eric Boehm
     
    nopartisanbull, Oct 20, 2019
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  5. TheGreatSatan

    TheGreatSatan Banned

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    Democrats are praying for a recession. If you believe the Democrat party has American interests at heart, you're living in the past. They will even go as far as trying to cause one.
     
    TheGreatSatan, Oct 20, 2019
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  6. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Double down experiment.

    I know, we should just sell it as a tax cut to the peons and make it temporary for them while actually making it regressive and permanent for the billionaires and multinationals.
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  7. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Be nice if it was permanent but you won’t get that from the house
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  8. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We have the highest level of government spending outside of a recession seen in the history of the US and the FED is beginning QE and lowering rates... something not seen outside of a recession. And trump is still wanting more — negative rates and more spending for example.

    When does trump ever get credit for anything?
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  9. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The republicans lost that chamber, so I don’t think it will pass this round without it being permanent for the average American.
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  10. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    The dems won’t pass that, in fact they blocked it
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  11. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Can you reference the bill? I would love to read it.
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  12. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Tax Cuts 2.0 the gop passed it in sept of 2018
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  13. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Bill number?
    Reference number?

    This one; https://www.businessinsider.com/house-gop-passes-tax-cuts-senate-vote-2018-9
    Similar to the TCJA, most independent analyses show the bill would provide a modest boost to the US economy in the short-term, while the benefits would be tilted toward wealthier Americans.

    According to the Tax Policy Center (TPC), a nonpartisan think tank, the individual tax cut extension would cut taxes for American households by $1,600 on average in 2026. But the gains would not be shared equally among different income cohorts.

    "The bill to extend the TCJA’s individual and estate tax cuts has the same structural flaws as the original. It is an enormous budget-buster that primarily benefits high-income households," Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at TPC, wrote.

    For example, households in the lowest income quintile (households making up to $28,600) would receive an average tax cut of $100, or a 0.5% boost to after-tax income. Those in the middle-income quintile (incomes of 54,800 to $95,000) would get an average cut of $980, a 1.3% average boost to incomes. People in the top 1% of income earners (making $836,200 and up) would get an average cut of $40,180, a 2% boost to after-tax income.


    Yeh, I cannot imagine why that didn’t pass.
    Like I said, regressive tax bills will not be passed by the Democratic house, only the Republicans think more tax cuts on the wealthy is fair.
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  14. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Yes.

    The tax cut bill wasn’t for just the wealthy. And you are right the dems won’t. Pass a tax cut bill...
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  15. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, it is just for the wealthy
    You understand the difference between $100.00 and $40,180.00, yes?
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  16. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but as you post highlights all are getting a cut. Obviously in a progressive tax system those paying more will be getting more of a cut...you understand how percentages work..right?
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  17. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If the percentages were equal they would all be 2%, instead we have .5% for those that need it most and over 2% for those that need it least.

    How is that equal? Its’s regressive.
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  18. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    You do realize that’s not the cuts, that’s the increase in money after the cuts.

    So now you are for a flat tax? Not a progressive tax?
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2019
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  19. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That’s the average net savings an individual will see in each tax bracket and the percentage of tax decreases vs their total income. I listed both the percentage and the amount.

    I am for a very low level of income inequality but since that is impossible I settle on a highly progressive tax system.
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  20. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Yes so tax cuts were for everyone and the biggest cuts to the middle class...and obviously if you are paying more, you’ll get more back
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  21. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Holidays sales.
     
    ButterBalls, Oct 20, 2019
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  22. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Remember when Republicans set the benchmark for a bad President was not having a single year that passed a 3.0% rise in GDP? Guess what, Republicans. Trump is a bad President by your own metrics...


    Of course, now you will change the bar for a bad President. Whatever.
     
    Daniel Light, Oct 20, 2019
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  23. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The biggest cuts go to the wealthiest.

    Or do you believe 1.5% is greater than 2%?
     
    cd8ed, Oct 20, 2019
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  24. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    That’s not true. They will get more back since they pay more, but the biggest cuts went tot the middle class
     
    struth, Oct 20, 2019
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  25. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    US Federal Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment:
    1.415T USD for Q2 2019

    upload_2019-10-20_14-9-57.png

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_federal_government_consumption_expenditures_and_gross_investment

    NOTE: $1 FGCEG increases the GDP by $1

    NOTE: Estimated Q3/19 FGCEG; $1.44 trillion.....up approx. $100 billion since Q3/18, up approx. $220 billion since Obama left the Oval Office.

    NOTE: Q2/19 GDP; $21.320 trillion, thus, $220 billion equates to approx. 1% of GDP.
     
    nopartisanbull, Oct 20, 2019
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