The ECONOMY ,Stock Market, , & General Finance

Pay goes up as employers eye smaller pool of workers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...e7e8a6816e7945f/9/59/60e035269d2fda8060f43c0f

New trends, new thinking, and new o;work philosophies evolving ........Dynamic times...

 

Looks like at this point there is lot of demand for everything, and companies simply cannot keep up.

Outboard engines have 6 month waiting time. Lumber is expensive because they cant produce enough. Same is true with just about everything, so the economy is hot, but lot of people have not returned to work yet and especially service industry is screaming for people to hire, but it seems many people who are out of jobs are from other sectors of the economy.

 

Delta variant fears send Dow tumbling more than 700 points in worst one-day decline of 2021

The three major U.S. indexes fell sharply as investors grow increasingly anxious about a surge in coronavirus cases and its potential to derail economic recovery.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...Q.tTa1u4FGAng5mDieT-Q67TD7jq7NdozsEH52nLa5-24

 

Let's do an impromptu Economic IQ test. Here's the first of three questions:

#1 The stock market loses 40.9% of its "value" over a period of 959 days. Characterize the state of the US economy during that time.

See if you can correctly answer that very simple question.

 

U.S. economy grew 6.5 percent in second quarter, marking full recovery from pandemic losses

"Rising vaccination rates and stimulus spending fueled economic growth that surpassed the last pre-pandemic peak set in 2019 and erased losses caused by the coronavirus crisis, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. But new uncertainty lies ahead, as coronavirus cases rise in parts of the country."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...0.nH6_ALLe_nUbGBNSzP_LaoZFJw-UrpZzw5HAnP4_mow

 

Talk like that is misleading. It doesn't take into account full inflation, and the fact that things haven't gotten better, they've just recovered to close to where they were before.

 

Real growth rate does take inflation into account. Don't be disappointed, this is good news for everyone.

 

But it doesn't take real inflation into account.

We all know there's a bit of a disconnect between the official inflation rate and what's actually going on in the economy.

It's kind of like that Alice in Wonderland bit where you have to keep running to stay in place.
Red Queen's race - Wikipedia

 

You mean the actual inflation vs bitter partisan rate?

 

My 401K more than doubled under Trump. Now it’s getting slow again like under Obama.

 

I am moving to rebalance my portfolio to protect it from the coming correction. Everything Biden is doing is the wrong direction.

 

That's odd given the fact that the market tripled under Obama, and nowhere near doubled under Trump. Its cute you credit the presidents though. I tend to credit myself.

 

And now its over 35 000. Hoosier thinks going from 30 to 35 is the wrong direction. Bless his heart.

Up 8000 points since Nov 4

 

It's an economy, not a video game. You don't hop over a purple flower and production suddenly ramps up.

Why would it need to?

If you want to make an argument, then learn basic Economics: GDP = C + I + G + NX

What's the "G" in the equation? That's government spending. Did the government spend more or less in Q2 than it normally does?

 

Whatever you want to call it, we have it.

Bidenflation:

​

Put your finger on the graph at the point where Biden was sworn in.

 

Sept 6th that all ends. And as employers, who have been paying a premium, are suddenly mobbed by a large crowd of folks that we all know are the folks who sat on the couch and did nothing until the end, common sense states that they will not be paid a premium, in short, they aren't worth it.

The math is very clear on this:

​

 

The year-over-year number was expected to show inflation given the comparison point a year ago, when people were not spending any money on things like travel. For example, airline prices fell by about 25% last year, and now they are back to normal, so yes, prices are higher that last year, but its because of the drop last year.

Some other things like car prices are not due to their value dropping last year, but simple lack of supply, partly because rental car companies are not feeding the used car market with used cars like they usually do. Off-lease cars are also not being sold because people are hanging on to their leases. As things normalize and the 2022 year over year numbers are compared to 2021, there will be little inflation. What is happening now, is what was predicted to happen in August 2020

 

Unemployment rate hits new pandemic-era low as U.S. adds 943,000 jobs in July

https://www.axios.com/july-jobs-rep...lert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_all

 

Tech giants are quietly buying up hundreds of smaller companies, a growing concern for regulators amid antitrust concerns

"The soaring number of mergers and acquisitions, many of them never publicly announced, is overwhelming antitrust regulators, a major problem for the Biden administration’s hopes of intensifying scrutiny of corporate power centers like Silicon Valley."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...0.mAKbf33PgxCP1LOt15SZeK79zJ_Ii34ERU0kX7kcUAk

Survival of the fittest at the most basic level.

 

Fed projects new interest-rate increase in 2022, signals easing of financial supports as economy continues to heal
"
Fed projects new interest-rate increase in 2022, signals easing of financial supports as economy continues to heal
The Federal Reserve signaled that it is laying out a new map for helping the economy stand on its own without policy help. Chair Jerome H. Powell is expected to give more details in a news conference today."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-p...9.uxAzDVEUCCoJs9SzF_Cck_iubq85mhPTo6WXcrlX3so

 

Senate Republicans block bill to avert government shutdown and to extend debt limit

"The Senate voted 48 to 50 in a procedural vote Monday on a stopgap spending bill, failing to advance legislation that would avert a government shutdown ahead of a Friday deadline and extend the debt limit, which is set to expire in October. Republicans opposed the bill for tying the two items together but have said they would back a funding bill that is separate."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/co...=857693951420692326&utm_medium=Email Sailthru

 

Treasury secretary tells Congress that U.S. will run out of debt ceiling flexibility on Oct. 18

"On Monday, Senate Republicans blocked an effort by Democrats to suspend the borrowing limit. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a Tuesday letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) that if the debt ceiling is breached, “it is uncertain whether we could continue to meet all the nation’s commitments after that date.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-p...9.7AWDM2_5sWLq1FtFNvWB-eeYIIlRXePxMrVq5tR-BeE

 

The housing market is extremely sensitive to changes in economics.
I entered the field of Real Estate in 1971. I decided then and there to track the economy as a routine.
No, not just the stock market but to show you an example, when Carter was president, our home prices escalated by 50 percent in 1979. Things were booming. Rates on loans were low. People were flipping houses like mad.
1980, the crap hit the fan. And I mean bad. Inflation had demolished the market. Homes sat on the market forever. Real Estate industry lost about half of the agents. The term Carter used was Malaise. And he was right. The public were desperate. We could not see an end to super high interest rates.

This will be later called the Biden economy.

Biden has taken steps that increase inflation. And he is that incompetent.

 

In my half century of being in the Real Estate business, I have seen this same pattern in other times.
It is happening again. We are back in the Carter era of economics.
1979 was a great year to sell real estate. January a home that sold for $60,000 was selling for $90,000 in December. Sellers were killing it. I was killing it in high commissions. Life was good. my man Carter.... lol

But in the spring of 1980, Carter was cooked. Homes no longer could sell. Rates were going up to the 18 percent range from 7 percent the year before. Oh my god. Real Estate agents fell from 135,000 in CA to around half of that. Agents could not survive so they pumped gas I guess.

Biden is facing a Carter depression.

 

In other words home prices dropped but it was not so obvious because inflation was covering it up.
To say it another way.

There are many people in society who are unable to see the economic bubble deflating and prices going down because they have a hard time seeing through the veil of inflation.