The Guardian view on a Brexit

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by LafayetteBis, Feb 18, 2020.

  1. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    I don't know mate...personally...I'm not sure its really that simple. I mean the infrastructure you are thinking of is not that big a thing and seems but a minor part of the equation to be frank. I guess the issue is subtracting the "noise" from the political back and forth and concentrating on the reality of what may or may not occur. The priority at the moment for haulage companies (apart from the overarching government drive to greenify the sector) is to establish compliance procedures for the principles and practises involved with trading within the Common Transit Convention - in order to make sure that exporters and importers ensure that they understand what paperwork will be required for customs, levies, security and so forth. For example ensuring that commercial invoices contain all the correct and relevant data that will be needed for goods and customs declarations and I guess this is where operators need to ensure that CMR Notes (correct goods descriptions and other details) are properly completed to ensure minimum delay. The issue is of course that the negotiations have not even started yet so there is no clear path in terms of duties, or requirements or the effects on cabotage trade but the trend seems to be plan for the worse case and act accordingly.

    FYI Dover is not a designated "truck park" in the 'sarf east that would be Manston...amongst other alternatives.

    Therefore...
    is not really the case as there is no highway yet to travel because the negotiations have not even started. I guess that's been my point from the beginning is the separation of fact from fiction and what ones assessment of the situation is/will be according to ones own political bias. If at the end of the day its a total clusterfuck then....well so be it.... it is what it is and we deal with it, adapt the practises and procedures to accommodate it and move on.
     
  2. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    You still do not get. Its not paperwork, its infrastructure which makes the goods flow. There will be a hard boarder. No Schengen no EU.
    Everything that comes or goes to the UK and vice versa will be checked at customs, the UK is a third country, when the translon period is over.
    Goods from Canada are checked at customs and than can move into the EU.
    Just think of a random figure, every truck into the UK has to wait 30 minutes in line, same for the truck in the European harbors or thru the Chunnel. 30 minutes at the boarder and you have hundreds of trucks parked, endless lines, one hour, its thousands.
    Plus the private travel.
    Paperwork, kindergarten, you have a PC for that crap today. There have to be yards, parking lots and a rather large troop of inspectors, custom agents to do that job.
    Its not about paper work and management, its infrastructure which allows goods to flow. The Brexit infrastructure is not there in the UK.
    None of it.
    If the deal is not friendly, or no deal the UK is fuucked. Its an Island and it is not prepared to handle the infrastructure problems, which lay ahead.
     
  3. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    Well I disagree. The paperwork is in fact the key to this not “infrastructure” if you appear at a port without the right paperwork then no amount of infrastructure will clear you. If the TIR carnets are missing or waybill or any other documents are not properly complete then you’re screwed. Even now you cannot simply turn up at Calais with a truck and expect to cross the Chanel without a whole pile of forms and paperwork.

    The paperwork is not easy that’s why there are sophisticated systems and procedures in place to administer the transit of goods so they are not stopped and checked. The vast majority of goods travelling the world are in containers - let’s forget bulk transport like ores or oils. Do you think that every container that comes off a ship is opened and checked at the port of discharge? If that was the case world trade would come to a standstill. It’s all about the paperwork my friend and the international conventions from whence the forms come.

    Just as a matter of interest what “infrastructure” do you think is missing that is impossible to build or install?
     
  4. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I know very much about such paperwork, I made Master in that trade, Im and Export.
    Infrastructure development and construction are far more time consuming and costly than the development of the proper paper work for what ever comes. It all exists already, for trade with Third Countries.
    Till now the traffic of people and goods flows with out restrictions from the UK to the Main Land. Sure you have to have your paperwork.
    But the future means custom inspection and goods from the UK will have to go through the custom section of the ports and can only leave once the paperwork are reviewed, or a inspection is done. That will take a few days.
    Today you drive your truck just onto the Ferry and than of at the Main Land, just like going from England to Scotland..
    Dez 31. that probably will not be the case anymore. Those trucks will have to go through the custom, same for what ever goes through the Chunnel.
    Lets not forget 40% of UK exports go to the EU and that is a constant never ending, 24-7-365, free unrestricted flow, no borders and that will end, border.
    The UK does not have the infrastructure in the ports specialized on EU trade and at the Chunnel for a hard border.
    Currently the whole system works on the unrestricted flow of goods and warehouse on wheels.
    With a hard border you have to warehouse again, that capacity is not there and will need millions in investment, besides the cost of having a very large stock in warehouses..
    Its infrastructure and that is not built in a few weeks, like paper work, takes many month, costs billions and than the minor problem to train and find personnel to do the job.
    How many thousands will be needed. Just loosing EU services, requires 30.000 new government employees, add to that the custom and the additional private sector employees and so on, rather expensive and you do not find them hanging around.
    Infrastructure is not just concret its people, too. Takes years, and the UK has only 6 month left.
     
  5. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    Can you then explain to me how thousands of overseas containers arrive in the U.K. everyday from non-EU countries, are dispatched on trucks and trains without being opened or inspected by customs?
     
  6. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Because there is a infrastructure behind it, 70 contracts, decades of negotiations, years of implementation on both sides, huge organizations on both sides, pre-inspections and inspections.
    The UK has only one real link to the main land and it was built with idea of open borders, EU.
    The UK will be now a third country, which means every truck driver has to stop and show his passport and his papers, before loading on a ferry or when unloading, like in the good old days. Maybe you do not remember them, the long lines of trucks at the border. Show passport, show papers and random inspections. Do you have the physical infrastructure for it ? No.
    Do you have the man power ? No
    Do you have the organizational infrastructure ? No

    Do the EU countries/harbors/raillink have any of it ? No

    How does it look at the imaginary custom border between NI and the UK any of the needed infrastructure ?
    No.
    6 month to go.
     
  7. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    just look at those figures.
    Wiki
    The tunnel carries high-speed Eurostar passenger trains, the Eurotunnel Shuttle for road vehicles—the largest such transport in the world[9]—and international freight trains.[10] The tunnel connects end-to-end with the high-speed railway lines of the LGV Nord and High Speed 1. In 2017, through rail services carried 10.3 million passengers and 1.22 million tonnes of freight, and the Shuttle carried 10.4 million passengers, 2.6 million cars, 51,000 coaches, and 1.6 million lorries (equivalent to 21.3 million tonnes of freight).[11] This compares with 11.7 million passengers, 2.6 million lorries and 2.2 million cars through the Port of Dover.[12]

    Soft border, now try to imagine a hard border, show me your passport, freight papers and so on.

    Good luck with that.
     
  8. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    We already discussed this....they do already - UK is not in the Schengen state...you have to show your passport!!!
    Trucks have to show papers....
    Let's do this again......all passengers have to show their passports to get on planes or Eurostar all trucks have to stop and process their papers....you can't just pitch up and get on!!
    Haven't you been on Eurostar? Even at Ebbsfleet there is French Passport control.
    Getting a truck on to the train....you can't just arrive and expect to get on...its impossible!!!

    I'm confused about your understanding of the mechanics of international freight forwarding...I mean...you said earlier...
    and then you say this...
    If you ....
    then you wouldn't say something like...
    ...the "infrastructure" as you term it is the data transfer defining what, where and when you are transporting for whom and to where and who has paid what for it I mean

    Going back to your comment..
    and then you say...
    ....then explain to me why (non-EU) cargo arriving in the Ports in the UK, Port of Hamburg, Port of Rotterdam etc. etc. etc. is customs cleared before it even arrives in the Port....it has to be!! Maybe because freight forwarders and customs brokers etc. etc. have already posted electronic import customs clearance. I mean its the basics of international trade. You keep going on about no "Infrastructure" (I still don't know what you mean by that) and long delays and storage..and other doomsday stuff....it simply won't happen. These newspaper doomsday scenarios...are just so crappy and stupid and....actually don't worry about it.....we're good.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
  9. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Nope you still do net get it.
    Its customs, hard border, you are not anymore part of it.
    Its immigration and custom. Its not waving a passport or EU ID, or slide it through a device. That is the EU standard.
    The UK will be a Third Country, outside the EU, customs. Which probably apply to everybody who will travel from the UK or from EU.
    Nobody stands at the check in and asks for your luggage, nobody stands and checks the trucks.
    You just ran your ID through the reader and you are fine, or hand it to the person to do it for you.
    That will end, because now everybody and everything will have to go through customs.
    Its not anymore a formality.
    You are a Third Country by the end of the year end may not have a trade agreement, even if, but still Third Country, without the infrastructure to deal with it, on both sides.

    Good luck
     
  10. philosophical

    philosophical Well-Known Member

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    With two different systems either side of the open land border on Ireland it means brexit will not happen.
    If you wish to discuss borders isn't that (the Elephant in the Room) border that should be the starting point?
    Everybody now avoids confronting that issue, and some play it down. No one has a solution.
     
  11. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    As it will benefit both parties to work it out and harm both parties if they do not my money is on them working it out.

    The BREXIT fear is still being pushed by those who opposed it, the Guardian was of course one of those. Time for that has passed as BREXIT is a complete, they lost their battle to block it.
     
  12. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Well, the EU made it clear what it wants, same for the UK and their wants are diverging quiet greatly.
    Both side have to make a stand, I think. If the EU rolls over, it can kiss its ars good by, same for Johnson's government.
    France will not stand for a soft agreement and Germany, too ( neither of the other founding countries ). It would make the EU obsolete.
    The guide lines of the negotiations were passed by the parliament and the council.
    Barnier has very little room, same for Frost and they have only 6 month.
    I do not sea how this will work, without one party caving in, completely. That one will probably be a rude divorce.
     
  13. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    I would guess your more well informed than I am.

    I'm just betting on basic greed, both parties need the other and need a agreement.
     
  14. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Its not anymore about basic greed. The EU has moved on, is way past Brexit and has established of the last months its next agenda, with the new commission. None of it includes the UK, or the UK Gov vision for the UK. The gap is already getting bigger.
    The problem is, the UK government wants move away from EU regulations and its new agenda, throw them out, for which it got voted in, with a massive majority. If Johnson caves in to the EU, even to the benefit of his country. He will be done by the end of the year.
    He will have a revolt in his own party, probably.
    The EU has made it quiet clear, Parliament and Commission, if the UK wants a deal it will have to adopted and keep any rules and regulations of the EU and that would make Brexit a NoExit.
    Aint going to happen.
     
  15. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    If that turns out to be the case then the UK will have to be on their own. They will be fine long term, they always are. It might very well get messy, hard and even ugly but they will pull thru and be better off because of it.
     
  16. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I always have a problem with " they always do or did".
    The UK is not anymore an Empire, it is a rather small country.
    Before it entered the EU it was the problem child of Europe, the sick man. It tried to stand alone and failed. With the EU it became rather rich and gained huge influence in Europe. It was a member of the big 3, France, the UK and Germany. It had a incredible say in the EU, besides its veto rights. Got more privileges than any country of the EU. I call it the pampered child. Always half in and half out and always threatening the veto in the council and all of that accumulated in the Brexit vote. Never been really part of it, just in for economic gains, the greed you talked about.
    The EU is more, far more.

    My guess, the UK will stand alone again, at the end of the year, as it did before it joined the EU and be the sick man of Europe again, in a very short time.
     
  17. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    Time will tell. The UK made their choice, twice. And the second time was extremely clear what they wanted.

    As soon as the EU whined about the tiny Union Jacks in their chamber it was clear to me that the UK made the right choice.
     
  18. philosophical

    philosophical Well-Known Member

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    That choice is a hard land border in Ireland right?
     
  19. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    Not in 2020 with the tech the world has now. My crappy little iPhone can track every car in my family in real time. Sticker on my windshield is scanned and pays tolls as I use toll ways. Something can be set up that doe snot need a hard border.
     
  20. philosophical

    philosophical Well-Known Member

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    There is 320 miles with over 200 crossing points. Not everybody or every thing will be equipped with technology. Then even if all 200 points are covered in some way any infrastructure will be a target, and of course there will need to be a system to deal with transgressions. For example stuff with no trackers or stickers. How will all that work in practice?
     
  21. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure. And it will take time but they can overcome those any of those types of issues IMO.

    If they can dig a tunnel from England to France under the channel they will work it out :)
     
  22. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    NI will get a special status. Still in the EU, but still in the UK.
    The Border will be between the UK and NI, in the Water.
     
  23. philosophical

    philosophical Well-Known Member

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    You seem to understand why I describe it as the elephant in the room. You're not sure, nor is anybody how to do the practicalities and the channel tunnel is child's play by comparison.

    If the issues can be overcome don't you think the answers would be out there by now?
     
  24. philosophical

    philosophical Well-Known Member

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    That is not what was voted for in the 2016 referendum.
     
  25. Rugglestx

    Rugglestx Well-Known Member

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    It will work out, what option is there? A hard border will not occur, nobody wants that.
     

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