The link between rainfall and assassinations in Roman times

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by LafayetteBis, Aug 2, 2018.

  1. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    [​IMG]

    Scary historical representation that wont repeat itself?

    We hope, we hope, we hope ...

    PS: Note that the demise of the Empire started in exactly the same period as a shortage of rain.
     
  2. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It's quite interesting.

    However, correlation isn't always cause to effect relationship.

    Even if during economical crisis people tend to be much more tensed, in every fields, including the political one.
     
  3. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    History has proven itself to be highly repetitive. Why?

    Because mankind does not change all that much. For all the political pretense we make, we also tend to look out for ourselves and our families. (That attitude changed significantly after WW2 in Europe but not in the US. In Europe, it developed, to contravene autocratic Communism, a sense of Social Democracy.

    That's why Communism failed colossally. It thought deeply but wrongly that plural belief (which it imposed) was more important than singular belief. The opposite of which America has yet to learn - singular-sentiment is not more important than plural-sentiments. There must be concertation somewhere in between.

    That always depends upon the question and the circumstance in which it is posed - because plural is the simple addition of singular and why we vote* ...

    *In fact, for all the talk about "democracy" as a nation we are poor voters (especially in the mid-terms). See here.
     
  4. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, but technology changed a lot. Our geography changed a lot. We went from highly rural societies to extremly urban one. People move a lot. For a long time, in most of the time of the world, people were born in a village and died in. There were some travellers, but the norm was stability. Now, people change often of place of life, even of countries.

    I agree that deeply, mankind nature doesn't change but the expression of this nature can change.

    Which can lead to a question. Will democracy fall ? Athenian democracy fell, roman republic fell.

    About votes, I think there are a secundary problems. We get in a way the leaders we deserve.

    A big problem of american policies is that's a confrontation regime. The eternal confrontation of two big sides, republican, democrats. It prevent a peacefull of concession spirit. That's the base of social life, concession.
    That's what I don't like in democracies, people are more tensed, more agressive between them because of those voting matters.
     
  5. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That consequence has been manufactured by multiple voting-manipulations over the years, and particularly the Electoral College (as regards the presidency) as well as gerrymandering for statewide voting. (And now the Supreme Court is playing political games on the subject of gerrymandering - waiting for the next Replicant judge. Why the hell they are selected-for-life I will never understand. A decade at best should be their tenure - then they pass it on to someone else.)

    One would have thought that as a founding-member of "democracy" (along with the French) would have got those two hideous problems right (from the get-go). But it hasn't and we simply contented to plod along for another two-centuries under the mistaken belief that "it had got it correct". When it hadn't.

    And now, grown up, it is too proud to admit the mistakes of its youth carried forward to rot its future as a "true democracy"; where the popular-vote is the singular arbiter nationally of the presidential vote. And state-elections are performed by an amalgamation of votes; that is, so many Representatives per population and perhaps multiple-votes to reduce the field to a finality. The number of representatives by state should be decided by a constant. That is, one representative per so many registered-voters - that same constant applicable to all states. Which is the ONLY truly fair and democratic manner in which to elect that assembly.

    It is a good idea nonetheless that the population-based vote should be balanced by the only-two-senators-per-state vote. That makes good sense as a counterbalancing force.

    Meaning let all who run debate, and we'll select the best after a sequence of voting if necessary. (With a fine for those registered voters who do not vote and are not excused from voting for good reason.) Screw the parties, let politicians stand or fall on what they say and not what colour (red or blue) they "appear to be".

    Yes, I know, I'm a dreamer ...
     
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  6. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Donor

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    That’s my thinking. The lack of rain per se isn’t causing an increase in assassinations, but the stress of famine probably makes people a little tense, unhappy and looking for change.

    Obviously there’s a difference between a culture living on a 1200 calorie per day diet and one where people can buy 2000 calories for a couple bucks at McDonalds.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2018
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  7. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    @LafayetteBis For me the only true democracies are the democracy who allow direct democracy. For instance switzerland. In USA or France, you choose your master for respectively 4 and 5 years. You're a slave who sometimes choose who would be your master, but still a slave. Swiss people keep much more controle over the lawmaking process than other people.

    The french democracy isn't that old. The first republic fell quickly, and democracy started really in France only around 1870/1875 with the third republic.

    The USA has a very big challenge, it's to be a democratic country without the most populated state dictating to the rest how they should behave. That very heterogeneous nature is a big difficulty, because some very hardcore christian conservative states have to coexist with the lunatic left of California. A lot of foreigners look both with circumspection.

    There is a thin limit between a democracy and a dictatorship of the majority.

    From my point of view, the USA mostly need to set aside politics. Politics in democracy are very dangerous, I would even say diabolic. It divide families, cities. USA need mostly unity. And you can't reach unity by voting by some politician.

    It's very sad to see a lot of people tearing apart about politics. All countries need peace and unity, peace within borders is one of the most precious treasure a country could have. How could they reach that if they're tearing up themselves for political reasons ? USA will go better when democrats and republican will be able back to set aside their different political opinions for friendship.
     
  8. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Donor

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    Pure democracies, like socialism, can work on a village or tribal level where people are in direct contact with each other. When people are spread out across a nation, a Republic works better for both logistical and communication reasons.

    Disagreed that we’re slaves to master in a Federal Constitutional Republic. If we’re slaves to anything, it’s the desire for money. Too many people will put worship of the Almighty Buck ahead of doing the right thing.
     
  9. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not everybody has a slave mentality. Someone who is poor and is fed up of his poverty and will try to find a better job walk free. Someone who is poor and is fed up of his poverty and will except that a better governement give him better job opportunities is a slave.
    Someone who is sad to see homeless people in the streets and will give his time and money to a caricative association walk free. Someone who share the same worries but hope that a never better government who will solve poverty is a slave.

    A lot of people developp under democracy a slave mindset.
     
  10. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Donor

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    While I tend to agree with you in principle, I can’t help get wrapped up in terminology; specifically the word “slave”. Like “Nazi” and “fascist” it tends to be overused to the point it is greatly watered down. A better word, IMHO, is “dependent”. In some cases, lazy and soft can be used too. :)

    People who, as you well stated, allow themselves to become dependent upon the state/government, are not free. They are not mature, fully independent-minded adults. They are equivalent to children or wards of the State on a volunteer basis. Unlike a slave, they are free to walk away at anytime. They choose not to do so.
     
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  11. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A FAILURE OF TRUE DEMOCRACY?

    Excellent discourse. Aside from the bit above. With which I must disagree.

    There is no dictatorship without force. Dictator = "a ruler with total power over a country, typically one who has obtained control by force."

    Trump forced nobody to vote for him. In fact, he lost the presidential election. His sorry-ass was saved by the stoopidity of the Electoral College that makes a lie of the only meritable voice. That of the peoples' popular-vote.

    All is not well in the land of George Washington, because of decisions made at the very beginning of the nation. The foremost of which was to kowtow to the demands of the southern-states that required the EC or they would not sign the Constitution.

    From here: Electoral College is ‘vestige’ of slavery, say some Constitutional scholars

    Excerpt:
    But apparently they don't.

    The US would do well to junk it - it is an embarrassment to anyone with a sense of True Decency to be at the heart of our democracy. It is unimaginable that a citizen's vote in one state is more potent in the election of the Chief Executive of a nation's government than that of another state. From here:
    [​IMG]

    Still, to be perfectly honest, other polls say otherwise - see here. But that poll was taken just after the election so one can understand that Replicant voters were elated by the results.

    A more recent poll seems to say that sympathies haven't much changed after all since. See here about how the results of a poll can change when the question is asked in a particular form. Wherein you will also find this bit of interesting pollstering that indicates why Donald Dork wants so very badly that wall shutting out our southern neighbors:
    [​IMG]

    Time will tell ultimately. But how many Donald Dorks must we elect to definitively understand - as a people - that the Electoral College is less than a mischievous ruse and more a failure of our quaint version of democracy ... ?

     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2018
  12. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why must people quote the worst situation to show a development of a given opinion that is unattractive to them.

    Have we got the change that "people" wanted? Nope. The people wanted Hillary not Donald Dork. And by one of the biggest margins historically - 2%!

    What happened in November 2016 was an electoral farce for which no country can be proud. As well, neither can we call what happened "normal democracy" ...

    It was a voting farce due to an overt manipulation of the popular-vote by the so-called Electoral College, with which we should do away ...
     
  13. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes and no.

    Yes, Americans move from one part of the country to another if the job-prospects permit them to do so. (In fact, these are more flexible due to their education and thus higher-level jobs. Those hurt most by Age Change - from the Industrial to the Information Age - are the rural populations still working in Industrial jobs. Those jobs now account for only about 12% of all employment, having been once around 65%.

    In fact, more Yanks move around America than Europeans around Europe. Because of the language barrier here in Europe. Damn few Europeans speak English, which is the international language of business.

    The younger generation has learned that lesson, and they are learning English feverishly. And even if they do behave as do the Americans (in moving about to enhance their careers), I doubt Europeans will ever do so with the same percentage of the total population. Most of Europe sits tight (at their place of birth) and moves around only for vacation.

    The Total EU population is around 740 million and the US about 325M. (Yes, the EU has twice the population of its biggest trading partner, the USA.) And I figure that language barrier will not be coming down any time soon.

    So, it remains a barrier to people moving around. Having said that, those retiring in the cold northern European climates do come to Southern France, Italy and Spain to live out their retirement ...
     
  14. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Donor

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    What worst situation? Lack of rainfall often means food shortages if not famine. Still hurting that Hillary lost? Try to get over it.

    The "people" in California wanted Hillary, those in the red states not so much. That said, I can understand why many people will look past Hillary's corruption and cronyism when she's promising them "free stuff".

    Hillary got less than 49% of the vote. Obviously she wasn't "The People's Choice".
     
  15. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I don't like this nomadic set of thinking. It lead to rootless people, historyless and unable to stand on something solid. Without history, people are empty.

    I already entered church where many of my ancestors were baptized and got their funeral service. Without being catholic, that's moving.

    That's what I like in kings, they're a connection to our ancestors. It's help to connect to that long term time sense, that we're short-lived and like mayflys in consideration of history. That sense of the long history can only humble us.
     
  16. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    A little bit on a different topic, but some people have speculated the decline of the European world and rise of the Islamic one could have been caused in part to declining world temperatures. That made the Middle East region more green and fertile, and also triggered an epoch of Viking raids as crops in the Far North of Europe became less productive and failed.

    In ancient Roman accounts we read that the Carthage on the North Coast of Africa used to be the bread basket of the Empire. Today that area is rather arid and dry, and it's hard to imagine it was ever a "bread basket".

    In biblical times there used to be glaciers on the tops of the mountains in Lebanon which fed streams, and there was a vast forest of cedars. Snow was not unknown in this region of the world at this time.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2018
  17. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Donor

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    No doubt famine or water losses cause stress among a population and can cause them to come into conflict with others. The US has it in their own history among those fighting over water rights or suffering due to crop failures.
     
  18. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wont disagree with you. Because I can remember that same past as a member of an immigrant family.

    But our thinking is from a very distant past that has long-since gone by ...
     
  19. LafayetteBis

    LafayetteBis Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    OUR COCKAMAMEY DEMOCRACY!

    Blah, blah, blah.

    From the Federal Election Commission here and to be exact:
    Clinton - 65,853,516 (48.18%)
    Trump: 62,984,825 (46.09%)

    Hillary beat Trump by a highly comfortable popular-vote margin of 2.09%!

    And this is the SECOND TIME IN 16 YEARS* that the Electoral College has lopsided the vote for the presidency.

    Anyone who thinks that manipulating the popular-vote to obtain the wrong-winner is acceptable in a True Democracy must have their head stuck far up their backside.

    What a cockamamey democracy we've got ...!

    *FEC results Gore-Bush (2000) from here:

     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2018
  20. Max Rockatansky

    Max Rockatansky Well-Known Member Donor

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    Thank you for the LW summation. Now scream about the 3 million votes. That never gets old. LOL

    Feel free to seek changing the Constitution on this issue. Good luck with that.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2018

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