Derideo, here is something else that is troubling. 75% of the U.S. population is 18 years old and above = 245 million people. If we give each of them $12,000, the cost is $2.94 trillion. According to the CBO, a VAT of 5% would generate about $3 trillion over 9 years. So a 10% VAT would generate $6 trillion or an average of $666 billion per year. So the yearly cost to pay out $12,000 per year to all adults would be $2.94 trillion, but the revenue generated from the tax would be only $666 billion. The numbers don't pencil out. Source: https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2018/54820
Consider, when talking about tax money, that the US has killed 500,000 people at the expense of 6 trillion since 2003.
Sorry for intruding on the thread. But when I read the part above, I thought you were talking about Howard Schultz.
Hey, trumpers elected a game-show host. The Ukraine just elected a former TV President as the real President. So here is my vote Josiah Edward "Jed" Bartlet Make America West Again. I've heard Beto O'Rourke described as a cross between JFK and Obama. But I have no idea what I think yet; just that his resume looks very very thin. But what the hell? After trump, the idea of having standards goes out the window.
Pete Buttigieg has been mentioned to have JFK characteristics. Several noted Republicans have spoke well of him.
So if UBI will do as you suggest, then we need to suppress wages, to remove money from the economy, and this should do the opposite of what UBI will create. I am not sure we would not see our rulers hanging from oak trees though. I am sure you have a solution for what AI and robotics will create though. But it might be, stop whining, and suck it up. ha ha
No, I don't want to constrict the economy which would cause chaos. What I want is for America's production to be robust, giving opportunity for meaningful work. I also want every American to be able to get a college education. I just don't agree with a national program to administer the funding for education. And frankly, I want full employment, preferably with a shortage of workers. This will drive wages up, and if the shortage is acute, we can allow immigration of qualified workers.
Yang has addressed some of this I think. Have you listened to him? I think that he speaks of this UBI getting rid of welfare, and seems to have worked out the numbers that may or may not jive with yours at the end of the day. He is a bright guy, and I cannot believe he has not put a pencil to this, in depth.
I was just ragging you in my first paragraph. But I think the problem with advancing AI and robotics is this issue of work period, with meaningful being somewhat of a luxury. This is what Yang is trying to address with UBI, at least in part. Friedman had an idea of UBI as well, but he handled it differently.
So your reply spurred me to find out just exactly what we spend on welfare. Of course "welfare" may be defined differently. But I found a pretty good link that separates Medicaid spending from Other Welfare spending. That's important because I do not expect that Yang means to give $1000/month to poor people in place of Medicaid and all other welfare. So, with Medicaid out of the equation, "Other Welfare" spending is $450 billion. https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/welfare_spending_analysis It still doesn't pencil out. $450 billion (welfare savings if UBI replaces welfare) + $666 billion (VAT revenue) = $1.16 trillion UBI payouts = $2.94 trillion. ($12k X 245 million recipients) Shortfall: -$1.78 trillion If you can show me information that makes it pencil out, I'd be willing to look at it.
If I come across a video where Yang lays it out, I will post it here on this thread. I think he has laid out some of it, but not sure it addresses everything you have brought up. He has delved into this at depth, and is sorta sure it would work, and would be one solution to what AI and robotics will eventually create, which he says will come faster than we might think. Remember this idea is addressing the problem of displaced workers, but isn't intended to replace jobs, but to aid in the great changes ahead of us. I should know more about his plans, but have not really dove into them in any serious manner. But I know he has. And he would not make simple mistakes. And that the numbers would have to work.
I thought the interview with Shapiro was good, which was ironic as I normally find Ben too far right for me, I'm more in the Dave Rubin zone.
Thank you for your detailed response, Seth. I do appreciate your input. Your points about UBI and VAT are well made and I agree that our politicians are untrustworthy which is why the program needs to be more akin to Social Security where they cannot meddle with it to the same degree. One area that you did not address was the important BENEFIT that UBI provides that does not currently exist. Let me try and give you an example of what I mean by this benefit. There are 5 kids who have just graduated from High School and they cannot afford to go to college. They live in an inner city where starter jobs pay minimum wage or less. Under the current situation that we have in our country right now they have virtually zero opportunity to succeed even though all 5 of them did find work in the fast food industry at MW. Now let's provide these 5 kids with a UBI benefit of $1000 a month. Now they can afford to buy a vehicle. Two of them get together and purchase a pickup and start a recycling business removing construction waste from building sites. One of uses his vehicle for deliveries and the other two use their vehicles as Uber taxis. That $1000 a month changes the lives of those 5 kids for the better. The same benefit applies across the board. Someone who is laid off now can still pay the bills with their $1000 a month and they can start their own business designing websites. A laid off janitor can now afford a van to start a handyman business. A laid off coal miner starts a garden service while another buys a minibus and does local tours for tourists. In essence UBI opens the door to entrepreneurial opportunities that would not exist without it since 82% of all business startups are self funded. Furthermore the US only ranks 42nd in entrepreneur nations because of the cost of starting a business. UBI will kick start entrepreneurship back up to where it belongs IMO. https://www.bloggingpro.com/archives/2017/01/30/entrepreneurship-statistics-infographic/
Which is why I believe we have an opportunity with Yang to change that dynamic. If you examine the support that he has achieved WITHOUT having any name recognition at all it is incredible. His vision and message resonates in ways that the political parties cannot compete with.
Great point! Independents WANT something DIFFERENT to what we have today and they hold the key to who is elected. Yang already has support from BOTH ends of the political spectrum via his nonpartisan message and does NOT have the baggage of either party to limit his appeal to the Independents.
Excellent question and it is addressed by Yang himself. What your math is missing is that UBI is NOT in addition to any other benefits like welfare and Social Security that people are already receiving. Yang explains it far better than I can. https://www.yang2020.com/blog/ubi_faqs/pay-universal-basic-income/
No need to apologize. Schultz does not even come close to having the vision and leadership of JFK. Feel free to contribute your own thoughts to the discussion.
Agreed but let's take the lesson that we can learn from how the BLOTUS came in infest the Oval office. A segment of the electorate did not agree with the way the Establishment in the party was selling them out to the Wall Street Casino instead of representing them. They organized via the internet and started promoting their own candidates in the party primaries and then worked to get their candidates elected. With this experience they then found a candidate who represented themselves (or at least lied to them that he represented them) and they managed to get him elected with some outside malign assistance from a foreign nation. The essence of that lesson is that We the People still control our own votes and when we unite we can elect whomever we want to represent us.
You are a little late joining the party. The Wall Street Casino and the GOP have been SUPPRESSING WAGES for the last 3+ decades already. That is WHY we have the MASSIVE wealth disparity in our nation now.
