The next Pandemic

Discussion in 'Science' started by Montegriffo, Apr 7, 2021.

  1. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    10,673
    Likes Received:
    8,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Do we have the will to do what is necessary to prevent the next pandemic?
    Protect natural habitats.
    Stop breeding and consuming wild animals.
    Stop large scale factory farming.

     
  2. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We did an astonishingly crap job this tiem out - even after being made fully aware of the possibilities of pandemic demonstrated over the last few tens of years.

    Given that we're so sociopathic as to refuse to wear masks and so dramatically anti medical science, I really do not believe we have the guts to be prepared.

    The scary part is that this pandemic was incredibly weak compared to what is out there, working away to enter the human population.

    And, NOBODY is talking about preparedness. I don't see even any discussion in that direction.

    In fact, it seems like the fact that this is a world problem, NOT a USA problem, and that world wide response is required is somthing that is even LESS recognized today - at least by the public.

    We are toads on a hotplate.
     
    Cosmo likes this.
  3. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    10,673
    Likes Received:
    8,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yup. If this was a dry run we've learnt nothing.
    If the next one has a 10% death rate instead of 1% we're truly fuked.
     
    Cosmo likes this.
  4. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2009
    Messages:
    37,762
    Likes Received:
    14,563
    Trophy Points:
    113
    None of those things will prevent a pandemic. New viruses will evolve. It is the nature of nature.
     
    Mushroom likes this.
  5. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree with you that none of that list of possible acts would have affected any of the recent pandemics, including this one.

    But, there definitely ARE things we can do that would make us more resiliant to pandemics.

    We need rapid response capability. The numerous gross failures of this ongoing pandemic demonstrate that clearly.

    We need to be more active in early warning and remedial action in the places that have proven to be sources of new viruses. This includes significant support for the lab in Hunan and its investigations of the numerous viruses in bats and other animals that have proven to be able to enter the human population.

    We need a fully internationalized response. The idea that we can successfully resist a pandemic while ignoring the rest of the world is just plain ignorance. We aren't safe from COVID until the world is, because every infected person in the world is an incubator of new strains that are striving to defeat our defenses. Plus, the entire world needs to be working to identify new viruses and risks of new viruses.

    We were lucky with this version of COVID. It's not very lethal. - not nearly as lethal as COVID strains could be. The next one could be far more deadly.
     
  6. lemmiwinx

    lemmiwinx Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2016
    Messages:
    8,069
    Likes Received:
    5,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    If the Chinese prevent their very large populace from eating under cooked bats sold in wet markets then the human race race may survive this pandemic. I can't say about the next one but there will be another one soon.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree to the extent that the international effort to identify the pathway taken by COVID is important.

    However, a major finding is that bats carry literally tens of thousands of COVID variants that are significantly different, including some that would undoubtedly be far more lethal to humans. And, bats are not the only reservoirs.

    Expecting COVID to be stopped by some sort of draconian action on the part of China hits me as HIGHLY unlikey.

    Plus, it is only one region of a number that have given us serious problems.

    Whatever else we do, we need to be prepared. And, that includes working to ensure that the world is prepared, as the idea that these viruses will honor country boundaries, oceans, etc. is ridiculous.
     
    lemmiwinx likes this.
  8. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2017
    Messages:
    10,673
    Likes Received:
    8,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    They will all help reduce the opportunities for viruses to jump from animals to humans.
     
    DEFinning likes this.
  9. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2009
    Messages:
    37,762
    Likes Received:
    14,563
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Much more likely is that it will be less deadly. It isn't in the best interests of a virus to kill its host since dead hosts to spread. So evolution tends to make viral infections less harmful.
     
    Mushroom likes this.
  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree that viruses can't be as successful if they rapidly kill their hosts.

    But, there is a long way to go between the low death rate of COVID and a virus being limited in that way. For example, a virus can be successful with a high death rate if its period of contagion is long enough or less obvious before serious symptoms.

    Also, lethal viruses can be an endless problem if they have natural reservoirs that are not human. This is true for Ebola, for example. There have been 6 outbreaks of Ebola since 2018. There is no way to go after the nonhuman reservoirs where Ebola exists.

    In the end, we are definitely susceptible to pandemics of viruses significantly more lethal than COVID.
     
  11. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2009
    Messages:
    37,762
    Likes Received:
    14,563
    Trophy Points:
    113
    For sure. COVID was not a serious problem. Only hysteria made it seem so. The government, media and medical community have failed to convince me that COVID killed anybody. A lot of people died while testing positive. I accept that as fact.
     
  12. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Data from doctor's document the death from COVID to be over a million Americans now.

    But, that does not account for those who died at home, who were shipped to morgues without having been tested, those not counted because of states having reporting inconsistencies, etc., etc.

    One really needs to look at the excess deaths issue. The death rate of Americans is known and is a steady statistic over the years, as it covers a large population. During the COVID period, the excess death rate has been far higher, with no possible explanation for that increase other than COVID.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

    This issue is addressed by WHO and CDC as well.
     
  13. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2009
    Messages:
    37,762
    Likes Received:
    14,563
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Sorry, I contend that COVID had to have help from some other condition in almost every case. There is no proof to the contrary. Government spoke and the people went into hysteria. We determine cause of death with autopsies. We haven't autopsied "covid" deaths. We have just guessed. Use term "death while testing positive for covid" and I'm on board.
     
  14. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    This is pretty much always the case for any death by disease.

    Every analysis has to rely on the assessment of the doctor concerning what the fundamental reason for the death is. So, it is limited to deaths where doctors were actually involved. This kind of analysis is also subject to reporting methodology. Many states refused to comply with standardized reporting methods, adding to the question of accuracy.

    But, that's not true for the "excess deaths" method of analysis.

    That analysis doesn't have to worry about the cause of each death. It simply notes that during pandemic years, the death rate was notably higher and that there were no other explanations for that.
     
  15. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    12,497
    Likes Received:
    2,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    In fact, this is easily shown in that almost all vectors ("natural hosts") are asymptomatic carriers and do not get sick themselves.

    And this is not unique, it is almost a "universal truth". Mosquitos do not die of malaria. Bats do not die of COVID. Even chimps do not die of HIV. Fleas did not die of the various plagues that infected the world.

    The danger is when a virus or bacteria is able to jump from the original host. Quite a few of those "secondary hosts" are not immune, and die. Hence, "Swine Flu", which was as fatal to pigs as it is to humans. And the various forms of SHF, also believed to most times use a bat vector, but slaughters most primates (some of which can infect humans, like ebola).

    However, in one thing we are lucky. The more deadly a disease is, the less likely it will spread very far. The most dangerous ones like COVID have high death rates simply because of the number of people they infect. They kill simply by infecting a lot of people, not because they themselves are particularly "deadly".
     
  16. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    12,497
    Likes Received:
    2,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    OK, that is not really how they work.

    The most deadly diseases either have a very long incubation period, but are not very fatal in the short term. HIV is a great example of this. It can pretty much be said it is "100% fatal", as one never "gets rid of it". However, the disease itself does not actually kill the host. Nobody actually "dies of HIV".

    And the problem with your second claim is that a pathogen is most times very carefully evolved to work with a specific host/vector. Not every mosquito can carry West Nile or Malaria. Not every bat can carry COVID or ebola. Not every flea can carry the plague. And the farther through genetic evolution a virus finds a host (even if it is similar), the less likely it will be a good match for it.

    In other words, do not expect to find bats globally becoming reservoirs of COVID. And the more evolution changes a virus and host from the original, the more likely it will change in other ways. Such as Ebola Congo (or any of the other African strains), and Ebola Reston. In most primates, both are highly contagious and deadly. And both are believed to use the bat as a vector.

    However, in a quirk of evolution between Africa and the Philippines, humans are safe from Reston. We might be asymptomatic carriers as we can become infected with it. But we do not "catch ebola" and die from it from that strain.

    But the simple fact, is almost every virus has a "natural reservoir" out there somewhere.
     
  17. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You didn't correct anything in my post.

    Did you leave something out?
     
  18. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    12,497
    Likes Received:
    2,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    *shakes head and sighs*

    Go play with your yo-yo.
     
  19. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2018
    Messages:
    17,376
    Likes Received:
    9,811
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No, I don’t think there is any interest in any of those things. Sadly. :(

    That’s why I’ve consistently advocated for personal preparedness. Clearly we can not count on government or the public to protect us. That leaves me/you to protect ourselves and each other.

    I’m VERY thankful I was prepared for Covid. It was worth every penny and every bit of work to achieve.


    I’m not a nobody, but I’ve been attempting to encourage preparedness since the beginning of the pandemic. :)

    From February 2020.

    April 2020.


    June of 2020.


    June 2020


    July 2020.


    July 2020.


    August 2020:
    February 2021.
     
  20. FatBack

    FatBack Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    52,293
    Likes Received:
    48,694
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    There is room for all of God's animals on this Earth.... Right next to the mashed potatoes and gravy.

    PETA people eating tasty animals!
     
    Mushroom likes this.
  21. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    OK - I was referring to decision makers.

    Clearly there are those of us in genpop and there is medical science where concern about pandemic is very real, including an understanding of many ways in which America could be prepared as individuals and as a country - if America wanted to be.

    I think if any elected official tried to make any important point about pandemic today, they would be trying to recover from the political response through the rest of their term of office.
     
  22. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2018
    Messages:
    17,376
    Likes Received:
    9,811
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I’m sure some politicians are trying to avoid stirring the pandemic pot to avoid getting scalded. Many botched things so bad the last time they haven’t any credibility anyway.

    Furthermore, what’s in it for government to be prepared? Those (big businesses) who lobby government saw their profits and net worths soar into the stratosphere with Covid government/business collusion. Politicians profit monetarily and politically from that cabal.

    Who died from Covid? The aged and unhealthy. People who “cost” government the most. Imagine the “positive” financial impact Covid had on New York’s Medicaid crisis.

    Well, what demographics eat up huge chunks of state Medicaid spending? Decisions made on C19, like infecting nursing homes, couldn’t have a foundation in NY’s fiscal crisis, could they? Nah, Cuomo isn’t that crazy, right? LOL

    https://www.city-journal.org/new-york-medicaid-crisis

    https://nyshealthfoundation.org/wp-...aid-long-term-care-compared-february-2009.pdf

    Pull quotes from above links.

    And
    New York in 2020 still spent twice what California did per capital on long term care. Cuomo had the hospital ship AND field hospitals he never really utilized. Putting convalescent and contagious individuals in care homes can’t have been accidental in my opinion. When crime is in question, motives are an important metric to scrutinize. So we see allowing deaths to occur, especially in certain demographics, was very beneficial short term to New York’s big long-term care problem. Of course that policy was short sighted, but government decisions often are. If Covid was leveraged in this manner, why would government be inclined to do things differently in the future? Government has for years been recommending influenza vaccination schedules that almost completely erase the benefit of influenza vaccination for the elderly, instead focusing on protection for the young. Why? And if you can answer that question, why would any other viral disease be treated differently by government? Never let a crisis go to waste….

    On top of that you have the “emergency” powers pandemics allow government to seize. This was intoxicating to many politicians and they will not wish to eliminate the option of using such powers in the future. Government secured a monopoly power on dissemination of disinformation. That’s not something easily let go of.

    That’s just the tip of the iceberg of reasons politicians won’t want to avert future pandemics.

    So that leads us right back to where I started. It’s up to YOU to protect you and ME to protect me. We can help each other as well, but counting on government to do it for us is borderline insanity knowing what we know about history (Covid and pre-Covid).
     
  23. AlpinLuke

    AlpinLuke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2014
    Messages:
    6,559
    Likes Received:
    588
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I would be more technical: there are animal species able to transmit diseases to humans.
    We should avoid to get in contact with those species. This would help a lot.

    So ... no more markets with alive birds, monkeys, swans ...
    If a virus can "jump" from a species to an other it will be very dangerous because the species of arrival hasn't got the antibodies ...
     
  24. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,479
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I don't get your argument here.

    Government CLEARLY worked on reducing the pandemic - both through policy and through its support for medical science. Some state and local government and primarily Republican interest groups fought AGAINST that effort.

    And, the fact that COVID was so poorly controlled led to an economic downturn - meaning significant disasters for businesses and increases in aid programs for those needing medical assistance and those out of work while income and other tax proceeds decreased significantly.

    There is NO possibility that those outcomes are something government was interested in.
     
  25. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2018
    Messages:
    17,376
    Likes Received:
    9,811
    Trophy Points:
    113
    And that my friends is why I was prepared for Covid and was never at any risk from it I didn’t choose to be in.

    That’s why consumer goods shortages didn’t bother me. That’s why it didn’t matter to me that the Government recommended against masks, then for the wrong masks, and then against the right masks. That’s why when a certain politician claimed he would address Covid by increasing testing 7 fold but actually decreased it substantially it was just an amusement to me.

    That’s why it didn’t matter to me when government finally admitted to aerosol spread months after the evidence concluded it’s existence but still said 6 ft social distancing was “good enough”.

    I’m short, you (and others) trusted government to solve the problem for you. Hundreds of thousands of you are dead and you are all still looking to government to solve the next one. You will never be prepared for another pandemic because you would rather have incompetent liars attempt to solve your problems than address them yourself.

    The proof is in the fact you are the one lamenting the governmental lack of interest in preparing for another pandemic and I’m the one already prepared and explaining to you why you won’t ever be.

    I’m thankful we live in a free enough country that I don’t have to play your games and die as a result of government dishonesty and incompetence. I’m dead serious when I say I hope you see the light and do some preparing of your own before the next pandemic or other phenomenon government can’t and won’t protect you from. Give it some thought. Forget the politics and the ego. It isn’t worth dying over.
     
    Mrs. b. and crank like this.

Share This Page