The next Pandemic

Discussion in 'Science' started by Montegriffo, Apr 7, 2021.

  1. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Actually, they all tend to come from one thing in particular rainforests.

    Those are the largest bodies of land that have little to no human interactivity, and are the natural breeding ground for virus.

    They actually come from many of them, including Africa, Asia, and South America.

    However, a great many in the past have been bacteriological, so can be defeated by antibiotics. But that does nothing against a virus.

    With one exception, the current "major virus" from Africa that is of a global concern is HIV. But that is a slow moving one, requiring intimate contact and kills over years if not decades.

    There were a lot of such in Central and South America during the Colonial period. But as humans often lived in the jungles themselves, they had largely already evolved ways to defeat them. It was only the "virgin field" Europeans that had problems. However, in recent decades Brazil has had several small outbreaks of various pathogens from the Amazon.

    Then there are others, like Ebola. The African strain is deadly to humans, and tens to burn "so hot" that it kills most who get it before they can spread it very far.

    Then you have the Ebola out of the Philippines. A close relative to the African one, and it is just as virulent and deadly to most primates. However, interestingly enough it is of no threat to humans, so we do not care for the most part.

    But all three of those places have rainforests in close proximity to humans.
     
  2. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Very few wore effective masks. They were told not to.

    Quarantine is most effective. I self quarantined until I knew enough about the virus and how the human body can be prepared to deal with it. Everyone should be prepared to quarantine for a couple weeks at least. We were lucky Covid wasn’t deadly.
     
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  3. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Rainforests are the most biologically diverse environments on earth so viruses and bacteria are no exception. They also have the most biological interactions amongst species per unit of space. Statistically one would expect higher rates of potentially zoonotic diseases to develop in rainforests. Add in no climate induced disruption of life cycles you see in temperate climates and it’s a toxic brew.

    On the other hand, the rainforests are home to the vast majority of medicinal and potentially medicinal organisms as well. The silver lining!

    But China is the source of the most devastating pandemics we have somewhat complete records on with the exception of smallpox. Next time they have sick folks and tell us there is no person to person spread hopefully we learn from history.
     
  4. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Primarily because of population density.

    It has the largest population of any country on the planet, and has been so for thousands of years. This means more interactions with the rainforests, and it is easier for a vector that jumps to humans to then spread through the population.

    And this in the end is what caused those in North America the largest problems. No rainforests, a widely dispersed population, they had pretty much no immunity when the diseases struck them from Europe. And in the inverse, their diseases rarely mutated as they spread slowly through small populations.

    That is why Syphilis went from what was to the natives largely a benign skin rash to the social disease we know today. When introduced to those with stronger immunities, it mutated and became stronger. The same as HIV, which was fatal in Africa but over many decades. When it hit Europeans it became much stronger, killing within years.
     
  5. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    This is not a sane way to decide whether we need planning.

    We need planning. And, we need good people doing that planning as well as executing the plans as devised.

    There definitely were problems with masks during the last pandemic. One you don't mention is that FEMA interdicted shipments of masks to hospitals that had purchased those masks. Also, Trump canceled mask production when our national supply was low, as well as eliminating our planing capability.

    But, that's not the issue. The issue with preparedness is that we need the planning.
    Yes, China has been willing to work with us on SARS.

    We were working with China at the Wuhan lab, for example.

    Suggesting that is "coddling China" is just plain CRAP. We have a shared objective in curbing lethal pandemic.

    When Trump made his totally political BS statements about China, he damaged America by blocking work on that shared objective.

    Plus, he promoted hate against American citizens of Asian descent.
     
  6. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Bull. Ask science.

    They have THOUSANDS of SARS variants that are carried by bats and other animals in areas that are highly remote.

    Blaming that on population density is absolute nonsense.

    And, the transmission outside their borders also didn't have to do with population density. It had to do with the mobility that is available today.
     
  7. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    This is irrelevant.

    The issue is being prepared for the next pandemic.
     
  8. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    China has worked with us on SARS in the past. Suggesting this is somehow impossible is just pure nonsense.

    Had we been there in their labs, we could have made a difference. Plus, we would have been more aware of what happened and where it happened. Today, we do NOT have anything near proof of what actually happened, so we make accusations that do nothing more than block cooperation.
    Waiting for them to ask for help is just stupid. We CAN work with them long before a specific problem arises.
    All you do is show that there needs to be better cooperation and planning that INCLUDES China.

    Also, I'd point out that all US states were infected from strains coming from Europe. Only two western states had the majority of their infections from strains coming directly from Asia.

    Our policy was NOT based on a serious scientific approach to pandemic.

    Again, we need planning.
     
  9. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Have you ever heard the saying “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results “? You are advocating for the same people doing the same things over and over. You expect different results. You will not get better results until you replace the planners. The ignorant and the dishonest will NEVER plan correctly or adequately. I already explained to you why it is not in their best interest to plan correctly or adequately.

    On masks. There was a shortage from about April of 2020 to November, possibly December of 2020. After December of 2020 masks were in OVERSUPPLY. These are undisputed facts. The shortage was a result of poor planning by the same morons running things now. When the shortage ended the same morons outright lied to you and withheld lifesaving masks from you and healthcare workers. These are not the people we want “planning” for the next pandemic. They have proven their inabilities beyond a shadow of

    SARS does not exist as a disease in the human population and it hasn’t since early 2004 when China finally stopped letting it leak from labs. What exactly have we gained from “working with China” on SARS?

    Go ahead and detail the positive results of that.


    Do we have shared objectives? As of January 10, 2020, Science reported China claimed what is now known as the SARS-CoV-2 virus was sequenced and did not resemble the SARS virus. On January 11, 2020 Science reported China had released the sequence and researchers in the UK had already determined the new virus was 89% similar to SARS. I believe in actuality it’s right at 79%. But the point is China was either incapable of making a valid genetic comparison of two viruses originating in their country or they lied. In a matter of hours the UK scientists had come close to the actual similarity.

    What is the value in attempting to sweet talk China into helping us? Do you have evidence being “nicer” to China will make them more honest or more competent?


    Which came first. The statements you attribute to Trump, or the obfuscation and incompetence I detailed above?

    Can you document the promotion of hate against Asian Americans? I never listened to anything Trump said so I don’t have firsthand knowledge of that.
     
  10. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    *laughs*

    OK, let's "ask science".

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8468130/

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s42005-021-00679-0

    Now I can go on and on and on, but once again, you are screaming that you know nothing about science, and are actually "anti-science".

    Now please provide some actual references that say that population density has not a damned thing to do with the spread of a pathogen.

    Please, oh please please please, give us an actual scientific reference that says the exact opposite. You say over and over that I need to "ask science", I just gave several references and can easily give doznes more that say you are full of crap.

    You, as usual you provide nothing but your own beliefs.

    Come on, use your powerful science to provide references that clearly state that population density has nothing to do with the spread of a disease.
     
  11. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    No, it has nothing to do with that, it has to do with your waving your politics around.

    Tell me, has the current President reinstated the Obama advisory panel? He was the VP then after all, has he brought i back? Has he made it permanent, and attached it to an actual department with an official annual budget?

    I can answer that simply, no. Therefore, this is all political coprolite and has not a damned thing to do with anything.
     
  12. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    *laugh*

    China wants nobody in their labs. They deny they even have a problem for as long as they can, until they can not deny it. And even then, scream it came from somebody else.

    You are entirely barking up the wrong tree here, bubba. China wants nobody to assist them, they have no problems. They are the best, most perfect, and most powerful nation on the planet. They need help from absolutely nobody. DO not believe me, just ask them.

    You think things would be better if we were in their labs? Well, first that would require the absolutely unheard of thing for them to actually invite somebody else into their labs.

    Kinda like you, no help can be given if the other side refuses to admit they even need help.
     
  13. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    No, SARS is not from a lab. It is a long running and well known string of diseases from Asia. And it has broken out in a very closely related strand that is known as MERS.

    In fact, because SARS, MERS, and COVID are so closely related, they are largely considered to be multiple strains of the same disease.

    SO technically, there have been outbreaks since 2004, they just use different names. Not unlike Spanish Flu, Swine Flu, H1N1. Three different names for the same disease.
     
  14. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    I never claimed SARS was from a lab. The last outbreak was the result of a lab leak. As far as anyone knows it’s zoonotic just like MERS.

    SARS does not exist outside of labs today. There have been no cases since China quit letting it escape their labs.

    SARS-CoV-2 is about 80% identical to SARS. SARS-CoV-2 is about 50% identical to MERS. All are coronaviruses and similar to the four non pandemic identified coronaviruses that infect humans—229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1. Eventually SARS-CoV-2 will be relegated to joining the four common mild human coronaviruses above. Just another cold virus.
     
  15. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Bullcrap, SARS, MERS, COVID, they are all closely related. Some infections from one even offer immunity to the other. That is how closely related they are.

    Now I really do not give a fig, but I am not a believer in the stupid "conspiracy theories" that China created any of them. No more than the US created HIV, or any of the other stupid similar stupid theories out there. And one thing I notice, quote often those that scream such things tend to believe a huge host of similar theories. Me, I am the "Ultimate Skeptic". And that area has been a common location for the introduction of rainforest diseases to the population for thousands of years.

    But SARS became MERS< and is now COVID. That is simply how a virus works. Not unlike the many strains of Ebola that keep cropping up.
     
  16. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    LOL.I have never posted bull crap on any subject, certainly not virology! :) I quoted the percentages of genes they each share. It’s just a fact. Here is a source.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7584494/

    Yes, cross reactivity in antibodies and B snd T cells exists between SARS and Covid. It also exists between at least some of the four endemic coronaviruses and Covid.

    It’s not possible SARS “became” MERS and MERS became SARS-CoV-2 for a few reasons. Here are a couple major ones. As I said, zoonotic SARS ceased to exist outside labs in 2004. SARS never saw community spread on the Arabian peninsula. There were only two cases of SARS in that area and both were travelers who acquired it elsewhere. All MERS cases have originated on the Arabian peninsula

    But the main factor excluding the progression you propose is that MERS has only 50% of the genetics SARS-CoV-2 has. If your proposed progression happened we would see more similarities between MERS and SARS-CoV-2 than between SARS and SARS-CoV-2. Instead we see the opposite. Evolution (natural selection) conserves some genes and discards others. The discarded genes do not magically reappear (certainly not over a an 8 year period) as would have to have happened for MERS to become SARS-CoV-2.

    Viruses are like organisms in that their evolution shows common ancestors. That is what you are seeing with SARS, MERS, and SARS-CoV-2.

    A final simple reason MERS didn’t become SARS-CoV-2 is the mutation rate of coronaviruses is limited by their ability to proofread their nucleotides during replication. This excludes the possibility MERS (that only shares 50% of genes at the nucleotide level with SARS-CoV-2) could have mutated into SARS-CoV-2 in 7 years. Of course coronaviruses have the ability to change through recombination with other coronaviruses. But there is no evidence this is the case here. The evidence points in the opposite direction based on SARS never having community transmission on the Arabian peninsula.

    I do not see any solid evidence for any of the three being the product of a lab. Although there is far less evidence for Covid not coming from a lab than exists for the other two.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2022
  17. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Which is what I said. They all share a close connection, which is common among virus. But if you had gone back before the genome type of testing that is done now (really only in the last 30 or so years), they would have been given the same name. Only in the last few decades has it become common to do exact profiling on every virus, and then to give them each a specific name. Even a small mutation gets a special name now, where that was not the case just a few decades ago.

    If this was the 1970's, I would bet dollars to doughnuts that they would all simply be called "Coronavirus", as that was the first of those major strands known. Heck, a huge percentage of the population is not even aware that there are 2 major and dozens of minor variants to HIV. Because that type of differentiation was at the limits of the era. In the US, it is primarily HIV-1, Group M, Subtype B. And most of the subgroupings they believe are related to the vector. And so far, they have identified the species jumps from chimps, gorillas, and sooty mangabeys.

    Hell, go back 40 years and they would not have known of the 5 major Ebola variants. And most people even today just call it "Ebola", not realizing it is not one but 5 different diseases. And all closely related to Marburg, which itself has 2 variants.

    But like so many things now, scientists and news loves to make everything special, and use their own specific names. That is mostly done for a "new virus", but rarely for older ones. As I had mentioned earlier, HIV. Or the "Common Cold" or "Flu", as nobody goes around naming the specific rhinovirus or influenza strain going around, or which one they might have gotten a shot to try and prevent.

    Hell, look at the full name, "SARS-CoV-2", it is indeed a SARS virus. And they have found close to 2 dozen variants of COVID now as well.
     
  18. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    Well, yeh. If we go back in Western civilization to the early 1800’s we would say Covid, MERS, and SARS were just miasma. Go back in history some more before “night air” was deemed responsible for disease and we might say all three pandemic Coronaviruses were curses from the gods

    Personally, while the history is fascinating, I prefer to base current discussion of virology on the best evidence in existence today, not on how people may have viewed infectious diseases in the past.

    That said, we are still in a state of profound ignorance. As you say, we don’t identify specific cold viruses when someone gets a cold. Hell, we haven’t even identified and classified a host of specific viruses that cause colds. And we are just beginning to understand influenza even though it’s one of the most studied viruses.

    I think you bring up a good point. As much as we DO know about virology today, it’s likely only a tiny fraction of what will be known in the future. But I do think we should use every bit of knowledge we do have at this point.
     
  19. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    There was essentially no planning for defense against this last COVID pandemic. Remember? Trump terminated the planning group that Obama had assembled.

    And, yes. If we against do no planning, we can expect the same problems when there is another pandemic.
    There were serious shortages of masks and PPE for hospitals and first responders.

    There was no plan for how to mitigate that problem, as we had become dependent on foreign sources of quality masks, and there was a world wide demand for those masks.
    This is a fantasy. SARS exists in bats and other animals in China and has crossed into the human population on a number of occasions.

    That is known because of the work done at the lab in Wuhan.

    Your last question seems pretty obvious. We need to know more about how this strain of SARS got into the human population. That may allow for practices that would make another invasions less likely. Also, such labs make early detection more possible.
    We've worked with China in Chikna at the Wuhan lab in the past.

    The very existence of that lab is proof we can work with them.

    This time, the USA actively worked to pitch China as the reason for there being a world wide pandemic. The message of our nation was that we were working to show that China caused this pandemic on purpose.

    That meme still exists.

    China is not going to help with that. In fact, it is a demonstration of the US being incapable of working together on a shared objective.
    There can be no question that the verbal tirades of the president against China as the perpetrator of COVID had an affect on elements of the US population.
     
  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I didn't scream anything.

    The point I made is that the density did not cause the crossover of SARS into the human population.

    There are historic records of SARS crossing into the human population in isolated mining communities, for example.

    Once in the human population, the factors affecting spread obviously include travel and population density, for the obvious reasons.

    Modern modes of travel and dependence on travel allowed COVID to rapidly spread to population densities in most of the world.
     
  21. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I don't see any significant effort to consider preparedness for another pandemic.

    As I have pointed out, we have worked to END preparedness planning.

    Don't get so wound up in the politics. We do need preparedness planning. A lot went very wrong, and it would be really stupid for us to fail to have better defenses.
     
  22. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    The US government was planning joint research projects with the Wuhan lab in October of 2017.

    This isn't an issue of "needing help".

    It's an issue of location and importance. Wuhan is the leading research institute of SARS in bats and is proximate to that bat community. They have the world's leading bat science for that region.

    This bat population isn't going away. SARS is endemic in bats, with infected bats showing no symptoms. There are known to be tens of thousands of SARS variants in that population. There are other species in that region that appear to be repositories for SARS.

    The hate and blame spewed by Trump was hugely damaging to scientific cooperation. Investigations led by WHO got pitched as NOT oriented to science, but to pinning blame on China.

    So, it's going to be more difficult. But, it is no less important.
     
  23. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Has the group been brought back? Has it been given a permanent position, placed under a permanent agency, and given an actual budget?

    Well, obviously the current President does not care either, and is just as guilty. After all, he has only been in office for well over a year now.
     
  24. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    In other words, you once again speak in circles and ignore the science.

    Got ya, that is your MOA.
     
  25. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Funny, neither do I. And how long has the current President been in office?

    But yes, blame it all on the last one.
     

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