The presidency? I have no idea who's going to win . . . but . . . .

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Gatewood, Oct 22, 2020.

  1. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Mostly we don't swap out first term presidents. If you go by that nearly rock-solid voting pattern alone then Trump is almost certainly going to still be president in 2021. Then there is the weird repeat pattern of 2020 compared to 2016.

    Due to blatantly obvious physical problems neither Hillary nor Joe had/have any business running for the presidency and everyone but hard core Dem Party faithful knows it, too. Yet in both cases polling had/have both Dem Party candidates rediculously far ahead of a vigorously campaigning Trump who's filling up massive rally venues with ease. Hillary and Biden . . . were/are lucky to get enough supporters together to conduct a barebones game of basketball.

    So if you go by logic and precedence Trump is going to be re-elected. Nonetheless I'd be lying like Barack Obama if I were to say that I KNOW that Trump is going to still be president in 2021. That's because sometimes political propaganda really does work and everyone knows that the political Left essentially controls the nation's media outlets. Plus, it's barely possibe that the Democratic National Committee learned a few things from the political debacle that was 2016. Granted, it doesn't appear as if they've learned a damn thing, but you never know.

    Looking back over my presidential prediction pattern I have been correct about forty percent of the time . . . at best. So a coin toss would technically be more accurate. Logic tells me that Trump is going to win . . . but then again logic told me that Barack Obama would NOT win in 2008 and nor again in 2012. Meh . . . so what do I know?

    So I think it's going to be Trump for the win, but time will tell; and nothing else but . . . time.
     
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  2. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't hazard a guess right now.

    But whoever wins, better win big. Because if Trump pulls out another Electoral College only win, or if Biden only wins by a few votes, then
    there is going to be court battles and riots and the country will suffer. And the stock market will suffer.
     
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  3. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    I strongly suspect that if Biden wins without significantly taking both the popular vote and the E.C. voting then, yes, there will be at least some court room battles since -- again -- polling companies have had Biden consistently waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead of Trump from the very get-go . . . for no logical reasons. If Biden wins then he had BETTER win big.
     
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  4. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I hope your instincts are correct, but I am finding this news to be a bit concerning....

    upload_2020-10-22_8-22-53.png


    Of course, polls only indicate "intent" of those being polled. The real and final poll is happening now.

    Democrats will definitely have major bragging rights if all that California donor money succeeds in turning Texas blue. Wins in smaller swing states won't make up the difference in electoral votes.
     
  5. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    No logical reason? Most people don't like the way Trump handled the Covid situation. That's been the single biggest story of 2020. So yes, there are real reasons
    Trump is behind in the polls. Trump won in 2016 with only 39% of the vote from registered voters. He's never been very popular.
     
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  6. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Don't worry too much about the riots though, peaceful protests are welcome, Trump unencumbered by the prospect of reelection will crush the riots the moment they start.... whether he wins or loses. Even a minor crime -> to jail they go.
     
  7. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Democrats are expected to win the popular vote in pretty much every future election, as long as California and New York stay solid blue. But that doesn't mean an electoral college vote from the states. There is also nothing inherently wrong with one candidate winning more votes and still losing the electoral college, if you understand why that can and will happen in some elections.

    Having said that, let's say that Texas goes blue this year and in the future. Democrats will win the popular vote and the electoral vote as well, until one of those 3 most populous states swings back to Republican (count Florida too). If CA, NY, TX, FL all vote blue, then there will be really no point in future candidates campaigning in 46 states (nor their citizens bothering to vote).
     
  8. James Knapp

    James Knapp Well-Known Member

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    I would say that a deadlocked poll means a Trump win in that state. Liberals are extremely vocal whereas conservatives/republicans are far more subtle.
     
  9. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    That's never stopped riots in the past anywhere. If people think they don't have a voice in politics, they get angry. Really hate to see that kind of
    thing here - I was hoping for a quiet retirement.
     
  10. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Trump's job approval just jumped back to 52% in Rasmussen poll, just about 1% below his all time high.... He was at 44% on October 7th.

    Is he at 52%? I don't know but the trend is amazing and my faith in polls commissioned by fake news is zero, they don't get hired to contradict the media's narrative that Trump's already lost.
    upload_2020-10-22_9-36-48.png
     
  11. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    It's difficult to tell about Texas -- which almost certainly is drifting leftwards due to the massive influx of California refugees from obscenely high taxes and gutter level liberal policies and which are, seemingly, determined to re-enact in Texas precisely what they fled from in California. But I don't think that Texas is quite there yet; or in other words, I am pretty sure that it's just more deliberate lies at this point from polling companies essentially working for the political interests of the DNC. But we shall see.
     
  12. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    What I'm really hoping is that after this election, people take a real hard look at our current political parties and decide they have out-lived their usefulness.
    They have basically become the Hatfields and McCoys with their only goal being Party over Country.
     
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  13. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Logic. If Biden actually were as popular as Trump then Biden would effortlessly be filling up massive rally venues and yesterday guest speaker Barack Obama would not have been delivering a campaign speech to only about one hundred spectators.
     
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  14. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Well . . . we can hope.
     
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  15. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I fear Republicans who don't necessarily follow politics in detail are more complacent (versus subtle) and may think Trump will win whether they vote or not. Meanwhile, Democrats have targeted their base down to the detail of knowing who has voted and who has not. They are extremely focused on getting Democrats who have not yet voted out to the polls.

    Then....look at the 2018 Senate race:

    upload_2020-10-22_8-40-50.png
     
  16. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Still within the margin of error, and considering that the prior 8 Rasmussen polls have it the opposite way - it's too early to claim any kind of "shift" for Trump.
     
  17. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Huh? People have a voice, they are free to peacefully protest all day long, they are free to vote for their local and federal representatives, to resort to recalls, impeachments etc...

    Just because the libs can't always get their way and throw temper tantrums when they don't does not mean they don't have a voice in democracy, it means their voice and their dumb views don't impress anyone outside of their bubble. Duh

    PS. having criminals and especially their organizers and financiers thrown to jail usually gets the job done, when it comes to stopping riots... There isn't really that many of those Antifa fascists and they do belong in jail.
     
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  18. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Texas has historically had very low voter turnout. I think many Democrats didn't vote on the assumption that Texas wasn't winnable anyway.

    Right now, Texas is leading the entire country both in total number of early voters and in the % increase in turnout compared to total turnout in 2016. Democrats have said that, "Texas is not a red state. It's a blue state with a voter turnout problem."

    I'm biting my nails (figuratively).
     
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  19. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    Agreed... and it's silly to ignore it as well..... Is it the October surprise making its way through the population which according to the fake news does not care about the swamps' corruption and has no undecided voters left? Who knows ;)
     
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  20. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Yes, so far we have had a massive voter turnout across the state. We shall see.
     
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  21. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    That Biden withdrew his campaign from Texas (or so I hear), Obama is not planning to campaign there and that Texas governor advised Trump to concentrate on Mid-west should hopefully put your mind at ease :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2020
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  22. spiritgide

    spiritgide Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    One thing for sure- it's being set up for contention. On one hand the expansion of mail voting is lauded as a good thing, on the other the list of problems already appearing with duplicate mailings, lost ballots, harvesting and much more leaves the election process open to claims of fraud and manipulation. Given the lack of principle being shown on the left, if they loose- it will be some kind of theft. They alleged that before with the Russian crap, but of course that too was bull. If they win, there actually will be some cause to ask if the mail ballot thing was used to manipulate the results- and I think that is part of the plan. Of course, the dems would deny that till hell freezes over. Regardless, a contested election is not good for the nation.

    I agree that in particular, Biden has far too many issues from health to his records of not getting anything done to his miscellaneous links to questionable deals involving family and his office. Just basically lacks the stuff required to take charge of the job. In normal times- no candidate as weak as Joe, both personally or in campaigning, would stand any chance at all. But we are dealing with a sort of social value breakdown, where the concepts of unearned equality, of justifiable violence, of excusable abuse and persecution of anything or anyone unpopular is being tolerated rather than rejected is common. Nothing is like it was a few generations back- and it is a very unhealthy change. It's impossible to know what will happen because we have a lot of people, including people holding offices of power- who have surrendered their moral compasses and values to a cult-like mentality. It is self-destructive. They don't see that, and of course they would take the rest of the world down with them and call it success. That's what's at stake in this election- it's a vote for sanity and progress, or crazy and destruction of the nation as we know it.
     
  23. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    True. However, a Socialist almost won the DNC nomination and a Nationalist is currently President. The two-party RINO/DINO oligarchy is being taken over, from the inside, by politicians who are outside the old-guard establishment's ideologies and platforms. That is happening "left and right".
     
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  24. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I won't be at ease until the night of November 3rd after the polls close. Texas also has a lot of open state legislative seats where Republicans were barely hanging onto when they retired. The DNC has been pouring money into the state. The GOP has been trying to sound the alarm over how close the race is here.

    Texas Republicans cannot skip voting thinking that Texas is safe. I don't think it is.
     
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  25. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The “silent majority” claim that the rightwing likes to grasp to has been debunked. Time to find a new slogan.
     

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