The Reliability of Covid 19 Diagnosis and Death Statistics

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by phoenyx, Mar 30, 2021.

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  1. phoenyx

    phoenyx Well-Known Member

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    Was reading a blog entry from Dr. Malcolm Kendrick in Scotland titled "Believing in impossible things – and COVID19". One that caught my eye was his point regarding Covid 19 Death Statistics. The details in different countries may vary but I think the gist of it remains the same:
    **
    NOW we have the very strange concept that any death within twenty-eight days of a positive COVID19 swab is recorded as a COVID19 death. Simultaneously, I am told that if I have a positive test at work, and then take some time off work (I can never remember the latest guidance). I am not to have another swab for ninety days.

    How so? Because it now seems (I actually knew this a long time ago), that swabs can remain positive for months after the infection has been and gone [or was maybe never there to begin with]. Or to put this another way, you can have a positive swab long after you have been infected – and recovered. There are just some bits of virus up your nose that can be magnified, through the wonders of the PCR test, into a positive result.

    Which means that an elderly person, infected months ago, can be admitted to hospital for any reason whatsoever. The they can have a positive swab – everyone is swabbed. Then they can die, from whatever it was they were admitted for in the first place. Then, they will be recorded as a COVID19 death.

    **
    Source:
    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2021/03/06/believing-in-impossible-things-and-covid19/amp/

    I know for a fact that variations of this happen elsewhere, such as my native Canada. A friend of mine was diagnosed as having Covid 19 when he went to the hospital (everyone is swabbed upon becoming a patient in hospitals it would seem) and thus had to stay 14 days in quarantine there. However, upon release, he was not tested again. He was later tested upon going back to the hospital (not sure how long it was before he returned) and swabbed again. He was told that he had "remnants" of Covid 19, but I highly suspect that if he hadn't already been diagnosed as having had Covid 19, they would have simply said that he had it. Something that would be useful is if people would be told what their Cycle Threshold or CT count is, to get some kind of an idea as to how much of this alleged virus they have, but so far, that's rarely done.

    Constructive feedback welcome.
     
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  2. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    I am not sure why swabs would be tested at such a later date unless there is a serious shortage of capacity to process results in Canada.
     
  3. MJ Davies

    MJ Davies Well-Known Member

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    My main concern about COVID comes from my own personal experience. I quarantined as soon as we went into lockdown. I have one friend that checks on me during the week but have had no other visitors and never left the house. There is absolutely NO way for me to have had exposure to it except through my friend.

    Fast forward 10 months. I was required to get a test prior to an outpatient procedure. It came back positive. My friend's doctor immediately sent her to get tested and we all assumed she HAD to be positive because she was my only contact. Nope. However, the Health Department said she had to quarantine for 19 (NINETEEN) days because it was assumed she just "tested too soon for the virus to show up" while I only had to quarantine for 14 days.

    At that time, the doctor's office required 20 (TWENTY) days between a positive test and future appointment. However, the test was no longer required as long as the appointment was within 90 (NINETY) days of the positive test result because it is assumed it will show positive that long.

    So, this begs some questions.

    • How long does the virus "linger" in the system,
    • at what point is a carrier contagious to others,
    • how do they count second waves (as it could easily be argued that a person already had the virus and recovered without being tested the first time).

    I would like to think the rules are constantly changing as they learn more about the virus and its transmission but can easily see how it can be argued that they are just making up stuff on the fly.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2021
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  4. phoenyx

    phoenyx Well-Known Member

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    I'm guessing you're referring to Dr. Kendrick's comment that if people are tested for Covid 19, they aren't to be tested for another 90 days? If so, I'd like to point out that this policy is for the UK, not Canada. I don't know if Canada has a similar policy, but I don't think so, because I believe that my friend went back to the hospital prior to 90 days after he was diagnosed with Covid 19.
     
  5. phoenyx

    phoenyx Well-Known Member

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    Good points. One thing I'd like you to consider is the many reports that the PCR tests aren't accurate. I think one particularly surprising example is the tests that the former president of Tanzania did shortly before his mysterious death. To whit:
    **
    He famously had his office submit five unlabelled samples for testing – goat, motor oil, papaya, quail and jackfruit – and when four came back positive and one “inconclusive”, he banned the testing kits and called for an investigation into their origin and manufacture.
    **

    I'm not sure when the tests were done, but no earlier than 06/05 as that's when the source article was published:
    https://www.africanews.com/2020/05/...-pawpaw-test-positive-to-corona-morning-call/

    Fast forward to March 12, and we get this:
    **
    John Magufuli, President of Tanzania, has disappeared. He’s not been seen in public for several weeks, and speculation is building as to where he might be.

    The opposition has, at various times, accused the President of being hospitalised with “Covid19”, either in Kenya or India, although there remains no evidence this is the case.
    **
    Source:
    https://off-guardian.org/2021/03/12/tanzania-the-second-covid-coup/

    6 dies later, we hear of his death:
    **
    After weeks of being out of the public eye, Tanzania’s President John Magufuli has died age 61, according to the country’s Vice President.
    **
    Source:
    https://off-guardian.org/2021/03/18/discuss-president-magufuli-dead-at-61/

    Just a coincidence, or did something more sinister happen?


    Off Guardian published an article in late February regarding the apparent diminishing of cases and its conclusions as to why that happened. It has to do with the Covid 19 testing procedure:
    https://off-guardian.org/2021/02/26/coronavirus-fact-check-10-why-new-cases-are-plummeting/
     
  6. MJ Davies

    MJ Davies Well-Known Member

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    I read about the President of Tanzania previously and it struck me as odd. I saw some reports that he died of COVID but found it bizarre that some people that were spreading around that he was missing got into trouble with the authorities. Who knows what really happened there? I doubt we'll ever know the full truth.

    As far as the PCR testing and all the controversy around the virus and vaccine goes...I don't know which tests I was given (I've taken it five times as required prior to outpatient surgeries and procedures) but, as I mentioned previously, it is impossible for me to understand how I contracted something that the only person I ever had contact did not have according to the testing. As I was asymptomatic, I have wondered if it was a false positive. I'll never know.

    As a precaution, though, I have canceled all my appointments, procedures and surgeries for the moment. I want to wait until we see how widespread the variants will be and the latest CDC guidelines surrounding them. I understand everyone is scrambling to figure out how to handle things so it's always changing but I find it a bit overwhelming to be inundated with so much back-and-forth. For me, it's just simpler to stay put and ride it out for a bit.
     
  7. phoenyx

    phoenyx Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately, you may well be right there :-/. Good catch about people getting into trouble with the authorities for pointing out that he was missing, I hadn't read/caught that.

    Definitely sounds like a false positive case. What would have been nice is if they could have told you at what cycle they allegedly found Covid 19 in your test. Off Guardian just published an article on Saturday that I think you might find quite interesting:
    "Making something out of nothing”: PCR tests, CT values and false positives

    Fair enough.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2021
  8. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    A positive test does not mean you have the virus. That is old news. Elon Musk demonstrated it best. 2 positive, 2 negative.

    You might as well toss a coin to see if you have it.
     
  9. MJ Davies

    MJ Davies Well-Known Member

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    I believe that's irrelevant. The reality is the people that do believe the virus exists and the tests are accurate are in the position to decide if I (the patient) can move forward with medical procedures thereby posing a hardship.
     
  10. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Have it your way MJ. Forming government policy based upon using for diagnostic purposes a test NOT DESIGNED for diagnostic purposes seems to be to be incredibly stupid policy by the policy makers, but that's just me.
     
  11. phoenyx

    phoenyx Well-Known Member

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    True. However, if enough people start thinking that the testing is flawed, it can influence the politicians who make these calls.
     

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