1. Following are excerpts from the article headlined "By The Time China Launches AIIB, America Will Have Lost Count Of Its True Allies" at http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmo...rica-will-have-lost-count-of-its-true-allies/ (Begin excerpts) There was a time America was building global institutions like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) — now World Trade Organization (WTO) — the IMF and the World Bank. And countries around the world were rushing to join them as founding members, and get a piece of the emerging global market. That was a long time ago, when the world economy was growing by leaps and bounds, and America had the dollars, dreams, and the drive to lead it. Today things are different. The world economy has slowed down, and China rather than America has the money, dreams, and momentum to build new global institutions to lead it. Like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), currently under way. And other countries are joining in, to get a piece of the projects to be funded by the bank..... While it is still unclear who these other allies who would join AIIB are, one thing is clear: by the time China launches AIIB, America will have lost count of its true allies. And its influence over the direction of the global economy will have diminished. (End excerpts) 2. Following are excerpts from the article headlined "Russia Gobbling Up Ukraine: First Crimea, Now Donetsk … Next Odessa?" at http://www.theipinionsjournal.com/2014/05/russia-gobbling-up-ukraine-first-crimea-now-donetsk-next/ (Begin excerpts) Pro-Moscow insurgents in eastern Ukraine declared independence Monday and sought to join Russia, undermining upcoming presidential elections, strengthening the Kremlin’s hand and putting pressure on Kiev to hold talks with the separatists following a referendum on self-rule. ....Putin clearly intends to occupy and/or control as much of the former republics of the Soviet Union as Western leaders will let him get away with. The only question is at what point Western leaders will do anything to stop what he’s doing, instead of waiting in each case to slap him on the wrist (with more penny-wise, pound-foolish sanctions) after he has done it. He can certainly be forgiven for calculating that, even if he takes all of Ukraine, these same Western leaders will be anxious to normalize relations with him, after duly venting their outrage for posterity, if only to ensure Russia’s uninterrupted supply of oil and gas. This is why former republics that, like Ukraine, are not members of NATO have just cause to fear Putin doing to them what he’s doing to Ukraine. More to the point, assurance of support from Western leaders would mean even less than the paper Chamberlain’s assurance of support to Poland was written on — as Ukraine is finding out to its demise. And so history continues to repeat itself.… Indeed, on the cover of its May 3 edition, the European-based Economist magazine posed the galling question, “What would America fight for?” Whereas the far more relevant question is: What will Europe fight for? (End excerpts) 3. There are valid reasons for countries to join AIIB. It does not matter to Western countries whether they are "true allies" of America when they opt to join AIIB. After all, they can ask the US whether it is their true ally for letting Russia gobble up Crimea and nibble at the rest of Ukraine. America's credibility has taken a big tumble like Humpty Dumpty in the wake of Russian annexation of Crimea. As long as Uncle Sam fails to chase the Bear out of Crimea, he could never recover from his great fall as "threescore men and threescore more could not place him as he was before". As the US allies got more frustrated with the weak US response to the Russian advance in Europe, they realise the need to fight for their own interests without taking orders from others. With regard to AIIB, the US has two options. Firstly, it can choose to stay out of AIIB and be isolated in the end. In this case, its policy of pivoting to Asia will be a hollow slogan. Secondly, it can choose to swallow its pride by joining AIIB. Then at least it has a say in the running of the organisation. Shakespeare had said in Julius Caesar Act 4: "There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures. The ship waits for nobody. More countries will find it wise to seize the fleeting opportunity to board the ship before it leaves the shore. Uncle Sam may be the last one making a desperate attempt to jump aboard at the last minute, or he may stand as a solitary figure on the shore, waving frantically at the ship as it sails off into the horizon.
Those Chinese are rascals. They ate Uncle Sam's lunch while he was recovering from hemorrhoid surgery. I guess hegemony is finite. But Uncle Sam should not lose hope. Another Pu Yi will arise, and Mandate of Heaven will be lost. That will happen some day. Unfortunately, today is not that day. Only Japan and Uncle Sam will not join Zhōngguó.
Most Europeans, especially the Ukrainians, will regard Uncle Sam as a rascal and coward for backing out at the critical moment of Russian annexation of Crimea. Since Uncle Sam is mauled badly by the Bear in Crimea, I dare to make the following two predictions: 1. Short of using military force, there is no way for the current sanctions to get the Russians out of Crimea. 2. Because of the US loss of credibility over Crimea under the Hak Kwai administration, the Democrats will lose the next presidential election. By saying "only Japan and Uncle Sam will not join Zhōngguó", do you mean that "only Japan and the US will not join AIIB"? If so, it will not be too long to find out whether the new prophecy of Prophet Albert will come true.
I know Uncle Sam is hell of a rascal, so I hope he has not cunningly hidden some laxative in his "free" lunch for the Chinese. Shakespeare pointed out "there is a tide in the affairs of men". As a nation consists of men (meaning people), we can also say "there is a tide in the affairs of nations". There is a saying “Every dog has its day”, meaning everyone gets a chance eventually; or that everyone is successful during some period in their life. The Chinese call it "the turn of the Circle of Fortune" (风 水 轮 流 转. So it seems now that Mr Chin's fortune is on the rise while that of Uncle Sam is on the decline. From the past patterns of the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties, each dynasty could last an average of several centuries. Hence both of us will never have the chance to see "that day" when "another Pu Yi will arise".
The pace of human events has accelerated. Look how quickly American hegemony rose, flowered and withered. China is now ensnared in the same pace of events. Historical processes that once took over two centuries in the past to ply out, now move within a single human lifetime. What do we know for certain? We know that nothing is forever. China will experience this certainty within the lifetimes of our children.
I agree that "nothing is forever". Don't forget the Buddha and other wise men had said it long ago. However, I beg to differ with your view on the accelerated pace of human events. Even the Qing Dynasty which was plagued by internal strifes, rebellions and foreign invasions, was resilient enough to last almost three centuries. At that time, the Qing army had to take many months to travel through dry deserts, climb high mountains and plateaus to such inacessible, remote places as Xinjiang and Tibet to quell any rebellion. Nowadays with the aid of high technology such as high-speed bullet trains and aircraft, the Chinese army could reach any place in the country within a short time to restore law and order. Mr Lee Kuan Yew had observed that a country could be run fairly well even with a weak, poor system of government but good, strong men in charge (not phrased exactly in Mr Lee's words). Even if the reign of CCP is shorter than the Qing Dynasty, say two centuries, the decline of China will happen within the lifetimes not of our children, but grandchildren. In my opinion, as long as the CCP keeps itself corruption-free and follows the Confucian philosophy of getting strong, good men to rule the country, its reign could even last three centuries. Meanwhile, China should try to have a free press to act as supervisor and whistleblower in the battle against corruption. Just like the establishment of economic zones, it should also try to establish "political zones" for political reforms. In America, a voter can only switch alternately to two parties in every electtion, just like a monkey choosing either an orange or a banana. In China, every citizen has only one choice, just like a monkey given a banana at every meal. One way for China to move towards democracy is to split the CCP into two and let them evolve gradually into two political parties that are entirely different from the original CCP. It's just like a monkey given the choice of either a banana in its natural state or a fried banana. Anyway, both of us won't be able to live that long to witness the decline of China under the CCP. Decline and the Collapse of the Qing Dynasty http://saraalgoe.hubpages.com/hub/Decline-and-the-Collapse-of-the-Qing-Dynasty
It's true the People's Liberation Army can now move with exceptional alacrity and speed. However, information moves much faster. Information is the basis of knowledge, rumor, heresy and treason. The Chinese are a rambunctious and restless people, but in some ways they are very docile politically. That may change with the rapidity with which information can spread across such a large territory. The Chinese are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Lee Kuan Yew was a very great man. He created a new country with diverse peoples and maintained stability and order. He was also a good friend to the United States. All complex societies collapse in time. Many Chinese societies have collapsed since the time of the Yellow Emperor. However, China is much more than a society. It is a distinct civilization. That is why China reconstitutes after each societal collapse. The greatest threat to China is existing corruption in the Party and the PLA. The Chinese people will only tolerate some level of corruption so long as they experience prosperity and dignity. Woe to the Party when they fail to produce those virtues. Rule by strong men can only be temporary. Institutionalization of the Party requires recognition by the people of the legitimacy of Party rule. What you've said essentially means that there should be zones of individual liberty. What I'm about to say is harsh, but it is said with deep affection for the people of China. Individual liberty is ephemeral. It has risen on a number of occasions for periods of time when people are prosperous, culturally confident, and hold up the component elements of individual liberty as virtuous ideals. When prosperity, cultural confidence and/or public virtue decline so does individual liberty and its democratic manifestations. Just as importantly, the ideals of individual liberty have risen, declined, and been reborn over and over in a single civilization...Western civilization. No other civilization has a theoretical basis for this political theory. Imo non-Western democracies and republican forms of govt. are unnatural grafts onto such societies that occurred during the era of Pax Americana, and will not long survive the passing of the American Peace. Individual liberty is meant only for peoples living in Western societies with a philosophical tradition that embraces the concept and which provides the fertile soil for its germination. The Chinese are meant to be Confucian. Confucianism and Individual liberty are antithetical. America has moved into a post-constitutional era as seamlessly as the Romans moved from the Republic to the Empire. The ideal of individual liberty in America is being replaced with the notion of equality of outcome. Those ideas are antithetical to each other. China is meant for hierarchical rule as has always been the case except during periods of disorder. I will live longer than Laozi.
What is your rating of Hak Kwai vis-à-vis Lee Kuan Yew? http://www.politicalforum.com/asia/402597-memoriam-lky.html Please explain and elaborate on your view that "China is much more than a society" and "a distinct civilization". There are ups and downs, like a sine curve, in the fortunes of nations. China is no exception. Sine Curve http://math.tutorvista.com/trigonometry/sine-curve.html 1. Following are excerpts from the article headlined "Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program" at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supplemental_Nutrition_Assistance_Program (Begin excerpts) The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as the Food Stamp program, provides food-purchasing assistance for low- and no-income people living in the U.S. It is a federal aid program, administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, under the Food and Nutrition Service (FNS), though benefits are distributed by each U.S. state's Division of Social Services or Children and Family Services. SNAP benefits cost $74.1 billion in fiscal year 2014 and supplied roughly 46.5 million Americans with an average of $125.35 for each person per month in food assistance. It is the largest nutrition program of the fifteen administered by FNS and is a critical component of the federal social safety net for low-income Americans..... (End excerpts) 2. Without SNAP, 46.5 million hungry Americans will most likely feel free to go riot on the streets. When you are kept like a pet bird in a golden cage, you long to fly out in search of freedom. But once when you are free, you may end up flying over a vast expanse of desert and dying like a hungry bird. So the poor people find themselves with two choices: either to be free from hunger, or free to be hungry. Free to Be Hungry http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/23/opinion/krugman-free-to-be-hungry.html Crime rate in Detroit, Michigan (MI): murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, thefts, auto thefts, arson, law enforcement employees, police officers, crime map http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Detroit-Michigan.html Longevity is not a blessing, as a Chinese saying goes, "You may get so bored with your long life that you hang yourself like the God of Longevity." Even if you can live up to the age of 200, I doubt you can ever see the decline of China under the CCP. P.S. I have yet to dream of five stars falling together in the eastern sky. Laozi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laozi Tao Te Ching http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daodejing God of Longevity Shou Xing http://godoflongevity.com/
Sorry, I like to elaborate further on your remark. With regard to AIIB, I think this may be China's stance: "That's my final offer. Take it or leave it, Abe and Hak Kwai." China may feel more at ease if Japan and the US choose to exclude themselves from AIIB as they won't have the chance to create trouble from inside the organisation.
LKY was a great man in history with influence beyond his city. He loved his people and brought all of his energies to bear in an effort to raise them up. On a scale of 1 to 10 with ten being the highest rating, LKY would have been an eight only because he was operating in such a small pond. Hak Kwai is a malevolent narcissist who despises his people and works to see them degraded and humbled. On a scale of 1-10 Hak Kwai is a zero. China is a society, a nation-state, an empire, a culture, and a civilization all at the same time. All complex societies and polities collapse in time. [video=youtube;ddmQhIiVM48]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmQhIiVM48[/video] The Ban Po people were a neolithic people who rose at the same time as Early Kingdom Egypt. The Xia Dynasty was the contemporary of Middle Kingdom Egypt and the Babylonian Empire. The Shang Dynasty ruled much of the Han heartland at the time of the Trojan War. The Zhou created the concept of the Mandate of Heaven about the time Alexander the Great and his Companions swept across what had been the Achaemenid Empire. The Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period occurred concurrently with the birth of Rome and its evolution into a Republic. Can you see the pattern? Han cohesion became unique, almost like a force of nature. China became united politically, and developed a culture with a powerful attraction underlied by a well adapted political philosophy and a unique school of thought on attaining personal harmony. The Empire broke up, there were rebellions, separate kingdoms, but always China was able to reconstitute itself. There has always been some form of centripetal force seeking to reunite and reconstitute China. In the process China became something distinct. A unique civilization. The West is also a civilization that rose in antiquity, but collapsed utterly after the fall of the Roman Empire in the West. It's Dark Age was as bad as any other any other civilization has experienced. But the flame of classical thought was maintained like candle flames sheltered from the wind. A thousand years passed before the West flowered again. The West attempted to make its civilization universal. But in doing so it opened itself up to alien influences that have caused the West to lose its identity. Unlike other civilizations China has permitted foreign influences, e.g., Buddhism, but has never lost its identity. I'm not sure why. However, I know that nothing is forever. I suspect that if China seeks to become a universal civilization the same thing will happen to China as has happened to the West. I don't have enough time to respond now.
Hak Kwai's eyes would be filled with tears if he knows you give him a zero. It won't be surprising that AboveAlpha won't agree with your rating of Hak Kwai. I am impressed with your knowledge of history, particularly Chinese history. I hope you can publish a book on the rise and fall of civilizations. It could be a bestseller. Please pinpoint and elaborate on the "alien influences that have caused the West to lose its identity". Your time is not up yet! Let me end my post with a joke from http://www.inspirationalstories.com/your-time-is-not-up-yet-joke/ A middle-aged woman had a heart attack and was taken to the hospital. While on the operating table, she had a near death experience. Seeing God, she asked “Is my time up?” God said, “No, you have another 43 years, 2 months, and 8 days to live.” Upon recovery, the woman decided to stay in the hospital and have a facelift, liposuction, and a tummy tuck. She even had someone come in and change her hair color. Since she had so much more time to live, she figured she might as well make the most of it. After her last operation, she was released from the hospital. While crossing the street on her way home, she was killed by an ambulance. Arriving in front of God, she demanded, “I thought you said I had another 40 years? Why didn’t you pull me from out of the path of the ambulance?” God replied, “Oops! Sorry, I didn’t recognize you!”
America basically sold off its wealth to China. There were many Chinese people willing to work hard for much much less.
