To those of you who are wearing masks in public.

Agreed. But they allowed it to continue far past the point it could have without deregulation. There never would have been such a large bubble without OTC derivatives.

Your narrative is contradicted by the facts.

Never claimed they could. I just said I’m glad I live where people aren’t controlled by fear. We will keep feeding you through whatever recession or depression the fearful create.

Young healthy folks need to come to grips with their fears and leave the home hiding to those demographics more at risk.

 

That's nice .... but why can't you build an 800sqf house? I mean specifically. What is it about that size which presents a problem?

 

Yeah, got it.

 

The Zoning laws say what size a person can build, like say for instance when Cotter Pin was President the NAACP filed a lawsuit claiming zoning laws were discriminatory, because it was quite common to use house size zoning to prevent blacks moving into white areas, then they dropped the suit when The Community Reinvestment Act was passed. What the reinvestment act did is make getting bigger houses available, which also meant house size zoning had to go up, when really blacks should have built or bought what they could afford and kept their debt to income ratio lower.

Principle of Regression:
"A real estate valuation theory which states that a property of higher value is negatively affected through comparison with lower value properties. The principle may be evident during the appraisal process whereby two or more buildings with similar amenities are compared; the more marketable property may be valued slightly lower due to its location."

Read more: http://www.investorwords.com/19167/principle_of_regression.html#ixzz6NpWQw81H

The zoning at the time had nothing whatsoever to do with property value in a rural area south of Atlanta, it had to do with keeping a county 6% black south of Fulton County. So a black might be able to afford an 850 square foot house payment, but not one for twice that size.

"The Charles Schwab Corporation ("Schwab,,)l appreciates the opportunity to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking ("ANPR") issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of Thrift Supervision (together, the "Agencies") regarding proposed revisions to the Agencies' existing domestic risk-based capital rules...

...P. 14 Another parameter that could be combined with LTV ratios to determine capital requirements might be a capacity measure such as a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio. The Agencies seek comment on (1) the use of an assessment mechanism based on LTV ratios in combination with credit assessments, debt-to-income ratios, or other relevant measures of credit quality; (2) the impact of the use of credit scores on the availability of credit orprices for lower income borrowers, and (3) whether LTVs and other measures of credit worthiness should be updated annually or quarterly and how theseparameters might be updated to accurately reflect the changing risk of a mortgage loan as it matures and asproperty values and borrower's credit assessmentsfluctuate. While we do support the use of combining LTV and industry standard FICO type credit scores in a risk-weighted capital guideline, as noted above, we do not support the inclusion of a capacity measure such as debt-to-income ratio (DTI). Our concern regarding the inclusion of such a measure is two-fold: (1) DTI is a much more subjective measurement than LTV or FICO score, and is not consistently calculated and applied by all lenders. Different lenders will calculate both income and debts using various guidelines. Additionally, some lenders will base DTI calculations only on verified income, while others may rely on stated income. There is too much variability in how this measurement is calculated and applied for it to be a meaningful guide to risk-based capital guidelines. And, (2) statistics have shown that DTI is a much less robust predictor of probability of default, or loss given default, than FICO scores and LTVs.

We do not believe that the use of credit scores in the risk-based capital guidelines will have a negative impact on the availability or price of credit to lower income borrowers. While the cost of capital can generally affect loan availability and price, we do not believe that applicant income is necessarily correlated with credit score. Many applicants with lower incomes have acceptable credit scores, while many applicants with high incomes have unacceptable credit scores. Banks are motivated to grant loans to generate revenue and profit, and most banks have very progressive mortgage programs for lower-income and fIrst-time homebuyers. The Community Reinvestment Act provides additional motivation for banks to reach out to meet the credit needs of the low-to-moderate income borrowers in their assessment areas" (January 17,2006, http://files.ots.treas.gov/comments/3173270d-dbd0-4b64-b398-487753ad9f27.pdf )

"Fed to discuss max 50% debt-to-income ratio for borrowers, prohibition on 'stated-income' loans to subprime borrowers, and other new rules" (May 29th, 2007, 3:38 pm) http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com...ns-to-subprime-borrowers-and-other-new-rules/

"WILLIS: A truck driver, Bernita saved up $14,000 to close on a six-bedroom house. Purchase price -- $180 grand. She thought she got a deal on her first loan, a two-year adjustable rate mortgage at 8.375 percent. Her monthly payments -- $1,200." http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0803/28/siu.01.html

So, in essence, we had an entire housing meltdown, and got Obama elected, due to zoning.

 

And it takes time to shut down existing lines, retool, get the blueprints...or buy a machine from China. I mean it took enough time to kill a 100,000 people with the Wuhan when a part didn't fit to figure out it wasn't an out of state contractor, but a really, really, really fat supervisor stepping onto and warping the structure on our end. Can't just say make something, hand them the patent and blue prints and say, "do." Harley Davidson could probably make ventilators and HEPA filters, but I bet your Chinese KN95 will arrive in the mail before the first Harley vent...rolls off the assembly line.

 

I haven't worn a mask either. Most people in our area don't wear them either. Life is good in the country.

 

It's a reminder of what's being lost in a country that's gone from 145m to 330m in my lifetime. I don't know if there is a solution to the depopulation of small towns. My wife's family farm in Canton, Missouri was a quarter section, then they added other farms in the area to their holding, and finally themselves sold out when the 130-year-old farmhouse was swept away in the Mississippi floods.

It's very preliminary because of the potential reaction against it.

Canada wins every appeal, but the fairness is an open issue based on all sorts of considerations I wouldn't care to address in a discussion forum. The bottom line for a homeowner--you want a home build with BC Douglas Fir than one with Georgia Pine.

Even though the municipal water here is excellent because it's ozonated, I still miss the water from our well. It was incredibly soft, but had just the right amount of minerals.

It does, but a 352’ dry hole gets one casting about for solutions.

Of all the people I've known over the years. farmers are by far the most hardheaded realists. Hands down. They're open to new ideas, not only in farming but in just about everything else. They know how to fix and build things, and of course, grow things. If a farmer uses a well witcher, it's in the best tradition of doing what works. I can't say I believe in well witching because I have no understanding of why it might work.

 

There are plenty of firms to can manufacture respirators, but they often have problems getting the patent rights. As well, they don't want to tool up for producing respirators when an effective treatment or vaccine could see demand dry up overnight. The federal government power to deal with patents, financing production, and regulate sales by foreign manufacturers makes the feds' involvement essential.

 

Of course, it can.

Can't understand wearing a mask while running in the country.

You're wrong about respirators stopping viruses and the constitutionality of shutting down types of businesses.

 

Time, biggest problem, wait for something to happen or start planning ahead now. They had the suggestions after 2009, but no legislation; the stockpile was like a plane with one radio, and no pilot checklist, no redundancy whatsoever. Laws are how things work best, preparation, being prepared, that is practice your emergency stops, otherwise you go over your handlebars...

 

Answer my questions (instead of sidestepping to "we should treat the CDC (and "experts") as God", and claiming that all "experts" agree, even though they do not all agree)... We are at a standstill until that happens.

 

Derivatives are important way of mitigating risk that allow all sorts of economic activity to take place that might not otherwise. It was shameful and disgusting we allowed crooks to turn derivatives into a way of defrauding people.

No, I'm afraid it isn't.

The reality is people are afraid of catching the virus, their fear effecting their behavior, and that translates into reduced consumer demand. I don't know how to get people out and spending by other than addressing their fear. We don't have a vaccine or effective treatment, so using physical controls to get down the number of new cases is essential.

You don't want the 20% of Americans over 60 staying home and cutting spending. That would be a disaster for the economy.

 

I could have said worse.

You can add withdrawing from the WHO during the middle of a pandemic.

 

We can debate about what we should have done, but what we need to do now is have protective equipment we can make available quickly to a location to cut transmission. The federal government needs to insure a supply is available ASAP by using the Defense Production Act. You should be able to have a quality respirator for you and yours. If people are afraid to go out, as they are now...



... they aren't going to buy enough to keep the economy going. We need to flatten the curve and squash it as they have in Australia...



... and wait to see if the scientists can come up with effective treatments or a vaccine. Maybe both. If people feel relatively safe, they'll emerge to buy more stuff--what we need them to do.

We don't even know if immunity lasts long enough for a "herd immunity" strategy. We also don't know how damaging it might be, even to relatively young people.

I figure we can keep much of our economy going if we get the number of new cases down. It buys time. We can relax the controls (or not) as we find out more.

 

Derivatives are great. My business relies heavily on derivatives trading on both the marketing and input purchasing sides. I trade them directly occasionally when I want to set basis later, but more often through forward cash contracts with third parties. I don’t speculate. Yes it was terrible no matter our disagreement on the particulars. Some Democrats resigned their positions in protest when Clinton pushed ahead with deregulation, but it did no good. Both parties were hell bent on the grand idea.

It’s pretty obvious really. Nobody from the Congressional investigators to financially focused media to economists deny derivative deregulation was key to the Great Recession.

We must stop fearing “cases”. That fear is irrational at this point.

Nobody wants that. But I prefer that over everyone sitting at home, many for no good reason.

 

Speculation isn't a bad thing because that's how you can mitigate the risk you take as a farmer. It's your insurance.

Well, Slick Willie was, anyway. There were perhaps more Democrats than Republicans choked by the deregulation--or lack of regulation of new products--but they kept their heads down.

I think most economists think it would have happened anyway.

I doubt you'll change folks' minds on their level of concern without either reducing the risk by getting down the number of new cases or coming up with a treatment. Why not do what they've done in British Columbia?



People are walking around without masks now. BC had four cases today.

If people keep the virus down in the cities, people in the countryside have virtually nothing to worry about, even if they go into town.

Here's the BC Interior region where they have a lot of farming...

 

We are at a standstill for ONE reason - there is NO national level leadership against COVID.

In fact national level leadership is fightng to have America ignore the medical truths of contagious disease response.

 

Oh no. Speculation is a very bad idea. Hedging mitigates risk. Speculation on commodities in excess of your production or usages has bankrupted a lot of farmers. Bankers hate it. It’s all fun and games until you start getting margin calls on 5 contracts of feeder cattle. Then the board locks up limit down 3 days in a row with expanded limits and your working capital is toast. Re-owning physical sales using derivatives I guess could be called speculation, but very few take truly speculative positions.

They all voted for it. But who knows what kind of carrots and sticks were involved.

I sure can’t find many that will say so.

If everyone wrote down on a sheet of paper the facts we have about this virus, turned off all media for 3 days, and just referenced that paper and thought critically about what that information means, fear and the desire to politicize this pandemic would drop many orders of magnitude in 72 hours.

What did BC do that was unique?

View attachment 114936

It looks like BC and my state (NE) have a lot of similarities with a couple exceptions. We have several large commercial meat packing facilities here while your meat packing cases are in other provinces. A large percentage of our cases are related to meat packing facilities. Also our tests/million stats are not quite double of yours. But your deaths/million is stellar. I hope you don’t have more just strung out over a long time period. Mask wearing is and has been the exception here. In the larger towns people tell me it’s about 50%. Out here in the country everyone had a few for use when cleaning out grain bins, but nobody is wearing them.

But with no vaccine we are just dragging it all out over a longer period of time. I guess that does help people’s feelers and maybe the economy a little.

Looking good compared to March and April.

 

To those of you who are wearing masks in public.

To those of you who should
wear mask in public. Make sure it covers your entire face as demonstrated below.

 

Someone has to take the other side of the trade. That's the speculation. All legit. What isn't legit is allowing banks to speculate to the point the risk they take on is too great. Also not right is allowing the creation of derivatives so complex that it's all but impossible to calculate risk.

The point is that it got done without enough resistance from one side or the other to allow the opposition to have an "I told you so" if things go wrong.

From the Minneapolis Fed:

Conventional wisdom is now converging on a particular narrative about the cause of the Great Recession. In effect, the Great Recession was a “perfect storm” created by the concurrence of three factors. Taken by itself, none of these factors would have caused a major recession, but in combination, they were explosive.​

The first was the decline in housing prices that began in the summer of 2007. Whether this was the end of a “bubble” or just an ordinary fluctuation does not matter for the narrative. The second factor was that the financial system was heavily invested in housing-related assets, mortgage-backed securities. The third factor was that the shadow banking system was invested in housing assets and highly vulnerable to bank runs.​

These three factors are the essential elements in the following narrative about the Great Recession.​

The fall in housing prices damaged the assets of the shadow banking system and thereby created the conditions in which a run on the shadow banking system could occur. Alas, a run did occur in the summer of 2007, forcing the shadow banking system to sell its assets at fire sale prices.​

This asset decline damaged the whole banking system and hindered its ability to intermediate not just house purchases, but investment more generally. With reduced credit, purchases of houses declined and the fall in house prices was reinforced.​

By reducing household wealth, the fall in house prices induced households to cut back on spending. Faced with declining sales, firms pulled back on investment and hiring. All of these factors reinforced each other, sending the economy into the tailspin documented above.​

Conventional wisdom is now converging on a particular narrative about the cause of the Great Recession. In effect, the Great Recession was a “perfect storm” created by the concurrence of three factors. Taken by itself, none of these factors would have caused a major recession, but in combination, they were explosive.​

The first was the decline in housing prices that began in the summer of 2007. Whether this was the end of a “bubble” or just an ordinary fluctuation does not matter for the narrative. The second factor was that the financial system was heavily invested in housing-related assets, mortgage-backed securities. The third factor was that the shadow banking system was invested in housing assets and highly vulnerable to bank runs.​

These three factors are the essential elements in the following narrative about the Great Recession.​

The fall in housing prices damaged the assets of the shadow banking system and thereby created the conditions in which a run on the shadow banking system could occur. Alas, a run did occur in the summer of 2007, forcing the shadow banking system to sell its assets at fire sale prices.​

This asset decline damaged the whole banking system and hindered its ability to intermediate not just house purchases, but investment more generally. With reduced credit, purchases of houses declined and the fall in house prices was reinforced.​

By reducing household wealth, the fall in house prices induced households to cut back on spending. Faced with declining sales, firms pulled back on investment and hiring. All of these factors reinforced each other, sending the economy into the tailspin documented above.​

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2017/the-great-recession-a-macroeconomic-earthquake

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/great-recession.asp

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Recession

https://irle.berkeley.edu/what-really-caused-the-great-recession/

Dream on.

They shut down some types of business early, got testing and tracing right, worked with the Canadian federal government to keep food on the table, shut down the Canada-USA border, and did not issue a stay-at-home order.

BC has had problems with chicken processing plants and other food processors, albeit on a smaller scale than Alberta in Canada or poor South Dakota with its small population and huge meat packing plant.

BC is an international destination and struggled initially to knock down outbreaks brought on by China, Iran, and the United States. It also has the Vancouver metro area for half its population.

A cure or effective treatment might make "dragging it all out" worth it for a lot of people, especially if a fix comes soon. If we let the virus run through society, we'll wreck the economy because people will stay home to avoid getting COVID-19.

We don't even know yet how long immunity lasts and could end up killing a lot of people for nothing if we go with a "herd immunity" strategy.

 

Uh huh.

 

I bet the Simpsons were your favorite tv show growing up. You and the rest of the Pussitis fearing liberals can stay quarantined in the basement with Biden. Just sit back and watch the real Americans build this country back to world dominance. I’ll check back with you at the start of hockey playoffs. Should be in a couple months. My Coyotes drew the Predators in the first round for the best of five.

 

I graduated from university in the 1960s.

You Trumpers don't "get it." This is how the public sees it.



It doesn't matter if we open the stores, people aren't going to dine, shop, travel or do much else until the virus threat drops.

British Columbia has done that and even reopened its parks to BC residents (the USA border is closed, anyway) and the website booking campsites crashed. Almost no one is wearing a mask on the street any longer. Why? Because of this...



... is how much COVID-19 is around and they're testing, testing, testing. There are a lot of campsites in the BC interior...



... and on Vancouver Island...



If you don't like comparing to BC with its international city, Vancouver, check out Australia...

Thanks to President Dopey ...


... and this dork...



... we're headed for a nasty recession because they aren't putting enough money in folks' hands so they have food on the table. Even Trump's Fed Chair is imploring Congress to spend more money.

Where is the PPE so we can get more jobs going again?

Your money is on the wrong horse with President Clorox.

 

Actually the public is seeing it like this right now.

 

Seeing what? Thugs can burn stuff down? They're torching places in their own community.

I notice that you ignored what I said about the virus. Why? Because you can't defend your position.

I guess 100,000 dead Americans isn't enough for you to consider rowing in a different direction.



Five million people, four cases. Multiply by 66 to get an equivalent for 330m Americans ... 66 x 4 ... 264 cases. This is how many new cases we actually have...



23,862, not 264.