Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    3 weeks to a month. Is logical. Assuming infection on the day of a stupid demo, then up to 14 days before symptoms show up, maybe another 7 days before a person truly feels bad enough to want to go to the hospital and by then, it may be far too late. So, yeah, I can see 21-28 days are very reasonable, but a spike could also happen earlier. I am talking about new C18 cases here. Deaths? Add another 2-3 weeks to that in many, but not all cases. So, the deaths being reported today can probably be traced to an infection point 4-5 weeks ago.
     
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I am sorry. Did one of those people living between the walls just scream again? I can't hear it.
     
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I was really hoping that someone would take the ball and run with it, and unsurprisingly, Deri-Bro, you did it!

    Yes, I noticed the huge population disparity between Ethiopia (a country to which I have a great affection and affinity, a long tradition of black Jews who have contributed incredible things to society as a whole over a long, long time) and the other three future upperdeckers.

    Also not to be overseen is the low life-expectancy in those countries, meaning that there are far fewer elderly people and so the endangered group of people is literally barely present to even be infected.

    I am watching closely to see how this one plays out.
     
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Glad to see you back among us.
     
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  5. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Me too!

    Did some further research into causes of deaths in Africa in general and some interesting things turned up.

    https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-africas-leading-causes-death/

    HIV makes people susceptible to TB and those together combine to be almost 15% of all deaths prior to this Pandemic. I suspect that these two comorbidities are going to be the factor that has the most influence on deaths for people other than children and the elderly.
     
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  6. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I still look over this thread to see how things are going, but other than these observations (compared to what I had said here previously), I am not sure I have much more to add on a regular basis.

    1- The number of deaths in the US have outstripped my expectations somewhat.
    2- The virus has been spreading, at least in terms of infections, quite rapidly in very warm weather type conditions. That has been a real surprise to me. The previous examples to me were more in the nature of 'exceptions that prove the rule', but right now, the exceptions have overtaken the rule.
    3- In Iran there was a huge spike in reported cases recently, which makes the idea that there will be a 2nd wave with re-openings and such (and it might not even wait for the fall season) appear much more likely.
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Future Upperdecks #1 is HERE.


    "Future Upperdecks" Series, #2:
    Cabo Verde, Uganda, Yemen, Zimbabwe,
    Libya, Comoros and Burundi

    Target lookback date: 2020-06-029, for 2020-06-028.

    In the worldwide analysis from this morning, in later screenshots from the WORLDOMETER countries listing, I highlighted some smaller countries in terms of total C19 cases (confirmed):

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    If you read the first posting in this new series, then you know that I have selected countries will well under 1,000 C19 cases, but which are showing signs of exponential growth. In this case, I selected the 7 countries you saw in the OP. There were a couple of others I could have selected as well, but I found these 7 to be the most interesting at current.

    Here, in descending order of C19 cases:
    Cabo Verdi: 421 C19 cases, +16 from the day before, GR =3.95%, death rate = 0.95%, C19 to total administered tests = 32.21%.
    Uganda: 413 C19 cases, +84 from the day before, GR =25.53%, death rate = N/A (no deaths), C19 to total administered tests = 0.43%.
    Yemen: 310 C19 cases, +27 from the day before, GR =9.54%, death rate = 24.84%, C19 to total administered tests = 258.33%.
    Zimbabwe: 174 C19 cases, +25 from the day before, GR =16.78%, death rate = 2.30%, C19 to total administered tests = 0.37%.
    Libya: 130 C19 cases, +12 from the day before, GR =10.17%, death rate = 3.84%, C19 to total administered tests = 2.33%.
    Comoros: 106 C19 cases, +19 from the day before, GR =21.84%, death rate = 1.89%, C19 to total administered tests = N/A, no data for administered tests.
    Burundi: 63 C19 cases, +21 from the day before, GR =50.00%, death rate = 1.59%, C19 to total administered tests = 22.18%.

    Here in ascending order of growth rate:
    Cabo Verdi: 421 C19 cases, +16 from the day before, GR =3.95%, death rate = 0.95%, C19 to total administered tests = 32.21%.
    Yemen: 310 C19 cases, +27 from the day before, GR =9.54%, death rate = 24.84%, C19 to total administered tests = 258.33%.
    Libya: 130 C19 cases, +12 from the day before, GR =10.17%, death rate = 3.84%, C19 to total administered tests = 2.33%.
    Zimbabwe: 174 C19 cases, +25 from the day before, GR =16.78%, death rate = 2.30%, C19 to total administered tests = 0.37%.
    Comoros: 106 C19 cases, +19 from the day before, GR =21.84%, death rate = 1.89%, C19 to total administered tests = N/A, no data for administered tests.
    Uganda: 413 C19 cases, +84 from the day before, GR =25.53%, death rate = N/A (no deaths), C19 to total administered tests = 0.43%.
    Burundi: 63 C19 cases, +21 from the day before, GR =50.00%, death rate = 1.59%, C19 to total administered tests = 22.18%.


    Here in ascending order of confirmed C19 cases / total administered tests:
    Comoros: 106 C19 cases, +19 from the day before, GR =21.84%, death rate = 1.89%, C19 to total administered tests = N/A, no data for administered tests.
    Zimbabwe: 174 C19 cases, +25 from the day before, GR =16.78%, death rate = 2.30%, C19 to total administered tests = 0.37%
    Uganda: 413 C19 cases, +84 from the day before, GR =25.53%, death rate = N/A (no deaths), C19 to total administered tests = 0.43%.
    Libya:
    130 C19 cases, +12 from the day before, GR =10.17%, death rate = 3.84%, C19 to total administered tests = 2.33%.
    Burundi:
    63 C19 cases, +21 from the day before, GR =50.00%, death rate = 1.59%, C19 to total administered tests = 22.18%.
    Cabo Verdi:
    421 C19 cases, +16 from the day before, GR =3.95%, death rate = 0.95%, C19 to total administered tests = 32.21%.
    Yemen: 310 C19 cases, +27 from the day before, GR =9.54%, death rate = 24.84%, C19 to total administered tests = 258.33%.

    I see no reason to compare the death rates for countries with such small numbers, for that usually leads to some pretty wierd skewing.

    Also weird is the C19 to administered test stat for Yemen, which has more C19 cases than actual administered tests it has performed. Either the tests were performed in a different country (possible) or they need to update their total test numbers.


    Also, using the stats for the USA as a baseline:
    USA: 1,816,820 C19 cases, +23,290 from the day before, GR = 1.30%, death rate = 5.81%, C19 to total administered tests = 10.52%

    Why did I pay so much attention to these comparatively small nations? I mean, after all, their combined case totals (1,617, somewhat less the US state of West Virginia at present) account for only 0.026% of all cases in the world. Ok, that's pretty darned small. And the total deaths from these four nations (93) account for only 0.0015% . But what happens if these nations continue to build cases at their current growth rates over the next 30 days? Well, I plugged that into a new tab in my online excel table, and what happened may surprise you:

    2020-05-031 COVID-19 Future Upperdecks extrapolation no 2 (7 nations) - 001.png
    2020-05-031 COVID-19 Future Upperdecks extrapolation no 2 (7 nations) - 002.png

    Next to the daily totals (directly under each country's name), the next column to the right shows the daily added cases, based on the fixed growth rate that you see in the title row.

    Obviously, the lower the growth rate, the smaller the end number will be in relation to others. So, let's do this by growth-rate, ascending:

    Cabo Verdi: starting at 421 C19 cases, GR =3.95%, end total on 2020-06-028 would be: 1,295 C19 cases.
    Yemen: starting at 310 C19 cases, GR =9.54%, end total on 2020-06-028 would be: 4,355 C19 cases.
    Libya: starting at 130 C19 cases, GR =10.17%, end total on 2020-06-028 would be: 2,157 C19 cases.
    Zimbabwe: starting at 174 C19 cases, GR =16.78%, end total on 2020-06-028 would be: 15,640 C19 cases.
    Comoros: starting at 103 C19 cases, GR =21.84%, end total on 2020-06-028 would be: 32,600 C19 cases.
    Uganda: starting at 413 C19 cases, GR =25.53%, end total on 2020-06-028 would be: 301,737 C19 cases.
    Burundi: starting at 63 C19 cases, GR =25.53%, end total on 2020-06-028 would be: 8,053,544 C19 cases.

    Yes, you read the end number for Burundi correctly. It shows over 8 million cases in Burundi in 30 days were the growth rate to be 50% each day! A 50% growth rate means a doubling every single day.

    Of course, no nation has had a perfectly consistent growth rate every day and I do not expect these nations to keep up this rate, but it is generally indicative of what happens when a country really starts to make the first "jump", as testing increases and the first deaths occur. It is also exactly the reason why I was so concerned when the USA was showing these kinds of growth rates through most all of the month of March, 2020, which can be proven here:

    View attachment 115009

    Again, so that one on misunderstands me, I do not think that the seven nations in this mini-study are going to be posting these kind of horrific numbers on 2020-06-028, but the mind-exercise is there to illustrate how exponential rates work and how things look after a period of time that I think we can all relate to, namely, the lunar month.

    Two days ago, I started the "Underdecks" Series, for instance, this posting for INDIA. That series takes a two-month look into the past and is based on the principle of hindsight.

    This is more like a "future Upperdecks" series, looking one month into the future, based on foresight instead of hindsight, so you can be absolutely guaranteed that I will be posting and comparing the totals for these seven (currently) small nations when 2020-06-028 has come and gone.

    Should you see a smaller nation on the list, then I can recommend that you use a similar methodology or you can PM me with a request and I will add that nation to the list.

    Please remember, two months ago, nobody, and I mean NOBODY was thinking about little Belarus. Now, Belarus has almost 42,000 C19 cases.



    -Stat
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2020
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In the last hour, the world went over 6.2 million C19 cases. At the same time, Russia went over 400,000 and Brazil went over 500,000.
    The world went over 6 million cases at the EOD on 2020-05-029, about 36 hours ago. We have jumped 200,000 C19 cases in 1.5 days

    2020-05-031 COVID-19 the world goes over 6,2 million.png

    2020-05-031 COVID-19 the world goes over 6,2 million also Russia and Brazil.png
     
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  9. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    I wonder why fear-grifters continue to discount the purposefully fraudulent CDC cause of death "guidelines" that have allowed corrupt, bankrupt Democrat cities in the U.S. to grossly inflate their COVID deaths, federal $$ and bolster their emergent claims for massive federal bailouts?

    I wonder why fear-grifters continue to fabricate that those fraudulent numbers, overwhelmingly from the 10 Democrat, public union run "Soprano" States, are anywhere remotely close to accurate, more likely 2-3x overcounted?

    I wonder why fear-grifters continue to ignore the results in the other 40 states, especially the bottom 25-30 states almost WHOLLY UNAFFECTED by COVID1984... when the grifters aren't cherry-picking them over and over, day after day... trying to turn a turd into a tulip towards fear mongering?

    I wonder why fear-grifters persist in avoiding the irrefutable fact and not opinion that for all but a tiny geographic fraction of the U.S., somehow miraculously contained ONLY in CORRUPT DEMOCRAT SOPRANO CRIME FAMILY CITIES, the instance of COVID19 is not statistically significant in relation to historical flu and other flu-like illness?

    I wonder why fear-grifters persist in cherry-picking this or that localized data, free-floating factoids, junk science, rank speculation, always omitting necessary context, never using comprehensive data or obfuscating it as OP and others do via biased partisan formatting and other childish chicanery?

    I wonder why fear-grifters constantly PRESUME some NONEXISTENT scientific evidence and credibility for draconian mitigation methods like lockdowns, business closure, social distancing and masks, especially in light that we now have NUMEROUS WORLDWIDE comprehensive comparisons in which those things do little if anything in the way of mitigation, certainly in no comparison to their IMMENSE costs and RIGHTS INFRINGEMENT?

    Most of all, I wonder why fear-grifters are continuing to LARP this COVID1984 FARCE of a MORAL PANIC day after day after it is IRREFUTABLY OVER. FINITO. Yet like in so many matters and disputes they end up LOSING, LOSING SOME MORE, and then LOSING YET AGAIN, they have -0- perspective, -0- self-awareness, and keep YAMMERING over and over ad infinitum way past the close... So do keep doing that! It's amazing, can keep time by it (that and the projections, fallacies and magical thinking). Keep going!
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2020
  10. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I thought you were observing deaths, not infection rates, soz!

    Absolutely, yes. They should have been compelled to lock down New Zealand style.
     
  11. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    No need to stay literally indoors though. Spend your days outside as much as possible. Better for your overall health, and much better for your sanity!
     
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  12. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Not sure of the price breakdown, but it's insanely expensive. A large American style house with year round climate control, would cost you easily $200-$300 a week here, if not more - JUST for electricity. We can't afford large refridgerators, deep freezes, etc etc. Same in Europe - power is just too costly. We also don't have the space for excess appliances of that nature.

    No, heat pumps aren't really a thing here. Australians aren't super big on heating generally, and tend to only use it when absolutely necessary. Even in my colder climate, we tend to go without on very sunny days (we have passive solar window placement), and we never heat overnight as it's a waste of wood. Our mornings are brisk - no coffee needed :p
     
  13. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I didn't mean the poorest nations are doing the best, I meant that nations poorer than the big Western powers have done better. Even within Europe, the poorest countries have the least COVID. Eastern Europe (and Greece) is doing much better than Western Europe.
     
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  14. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    I also fear that a further uptick is going to happen because of the "protests"(read: mayhem) here in the US. And as I understand it, there's now attempts abroad to cause the same chaos, I hope the European governments are far more prepared to deal with it.
     
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  15. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Your claims are unsupported nonsense.
     
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  16. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Heat pumps are used for heating and cooling. They energy efficient.
     
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Jawohl!!! D'accord!!! YES YES!!!
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

    During the run of the day on 2020-05-031, there were some analyses of size:
    USA EOD report for 2020-05-030, posted 2020-05-031, 13:24 GMT +2, #9646.
    Future Upperdecks #2. Target lookback date: 2020-06-029 for 2020-06-028.
    The world goes from 6.0 to 6.2 million in 36 hours, Brazil goes over 500,000, Russia goes over 400,000, posted 2020-05-031, 18:16 GMT +2, #9658.

    NOTE: to confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
    - the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
    - the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Sunday, 2020-05-031 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ******6,259,249******
    +108,767 cases today over yesterday.
    There are 115 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.

    There are now 373,697 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
    638 Americans, 480 Brazilians & 364 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 000 - excel table.png

    The table shows the complete month of May, 2020, from EOD on 2020-04-030 (which is also the starting figure for BOD 2020-05-001) to EOD 2020-05-031. Later today, I will be doing a quarterly report for the worldwide figures, the USA, Brazil and Russia, but two quick takeways now: the number of cases added to the grand total in May were about 47%, so in terms of the raw numbers confirmed C19 infections, this was by far the heaviest month. It's also also indicated by the 5 weekly averages you see on the extreme right of the table. The daily average of cases continually rose. But at the same time, the daily average fell, a good sign overall.

    Yesterday, I wrote this:

    Just to hammer that point home, if we simply stay with the current average of 109,256 cases per day * 30 days in June = 3,277,680 + the 6,259,949 we already have would be a total of 9,537,629 C19 cases at the end of June, and that's without even the slightest increase in the daily average. In the analysis for 2020-06-030, I will be quoting this.

    Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +25 C19 cases and above):
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 001.png
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 002.png
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 003.png
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 004.png
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 005.png
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 006.png
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 007.png

    In terms of total cases per country, there are 115 nations in the "thousand club". Yesterday, I wrote:

    And so it was: CAR crossed the 1,000 line on the last day of May, 2020.

    Of those 115, 53 are in the "10,000 club, with Nigeria having having crossed over the 10,000 line on 2020-05-031.

    Finally,
    12 of those 53 are at 100,000 or more. Currently at 99,688 C19 cases, Chile will cross over the 100,000 mark today, 2020-06-001. Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia are not far behind.


    In terms of the countries with the most new cases: breaking the fourth day streak with Brazil leading, the USA re-took rank 1 with the most new cases with the Brazil at rank 2. Russia, India, Peru, Chile and Pakistan took rankings 3-7 in daily C19 cases, knocking Mexico down to rank 8.

    63 countries had +100 or more new cases, a little less than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 62. Of those 63, 17 countries had +1000 or more new cases, among them, among them, Quatar, Columbia and Oman.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are now
    SEVENTY-ONE nations with 100 total deaths or more, with Guatemala having crossed over the 100 line on 2020-05-031. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 70, TWENTY-SEVEN nations have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, with Chile having crossed over the 1,000 death line on 2020-05-031.

    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, the USA was at rank 1 (+638 ), Brasil, at rank 2 (+480), then Mexico at rank 3 (+364); a huge amount of the dying across the world on 2020-05-030 happened in the Americas. Overall, there was a stark reduction in Sunday deaths vis a vis the rest of that week, as has been the case for a good while now.

    8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was also 8 the day before). 5 of those 8 countries are from the Americas, the same five as over the last number of days.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 13 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Peru having crossed over the million-mark. The USA has now performed
    17.7 million tests (500,000 more than the day before) while Russia has performed 10.6 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, has performed only 930,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia.... and btw, Peru and Venezuela have performed more C19 tests than Brazil. Because so many other nations are starting to ramp up their testing, here the rankings for the top 27 countries:

    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 008.png
    2020-05-031 EOD Worldwide 009.png

    When I started looking at this listing about a month ago, Vietnam, which has currently tested 275,000 times, was number 25 or 26 in the rankings. It also was at about 250,000 back then. Now, Vietnam is rank 50, so you can see that slowly but surely, a lot of nations have ramped up their testing. Also, for the first time ever, we now have two nations in the world with over 10 million tests administered apiece.


    Facit:
    on 2020-05-031 world came in 2/3 of the way between 6.2 and 6.3 million total C19 cases.

    Now at +106,195 deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026 (link at the top of this analysis), I started a new extrapolation.... this means that 200,000 total US deaths may come upon us sooner than many may be thinking possible.

    The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2020
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

    And now the COVID-19 USA numbers for Sunday, 2020-05-031 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

    COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Sunday, 2020-05-031 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

    *1,837,170*
    +20,350 cases today over the day before.

    106,195 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
    638 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
    599,867 people have recovered, 1,131,108 are, however, still sick.

    2020-05-031 EOD USA 000 - excel table.png

    In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

    Note that the number of daily deaths on Sunday, 2020-05-031 tracks closely to the daily deaths from the Sundday before. To me, it looks less like a downward curve from the week before and more like a plateau. Wait and see.

    I screenshotted the entire month of May, 2020 so that you can see how far we have come since EOD on 2020-04-030. In fact, the total number of cases in the entire month of May, 2020 (742,147) = 40.4% of all confirmed C19 cases in the USA since the outbreak began. More to this in a quartely report, which will be published soon.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
    2020-05-031 EOD USA 001.png
    2020-05-031 EOD USA 002.png
    2020-05-031 EOD USA 003.png
    Total confirmed C-19 cases:

    45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (981) is crawling slowly up to the 1,000 line. 30 of those 45 plus Veterans affairs (13,657 - no change over the last three days) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 31, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 29. Also, the number of infected military personnel is moving toward the 10,000 mark. At 9,827 (no change from the day before), 9,797, 9,704 and 9,498, respectively, KS, UT, KY and DE will be crossing over the 10,000 line shortly.

    Call me a pessimist if you will, but the US territories have barely tested for C19 and their total administered test numbers have barely budged. This means that Guam, the VI et al are not really testing and that may really boomerang on us. A day may come when Guam suddenly tests 30,000 and finds 15,000 of them to be positive.... so I think it's very naive to think that nothing is happening in the territories just because they are at sea. If I recall, the SS-Roosevelt was also at sea.

    Also, by the end of the year, the chances are close to 100% that every state and territory will have over 500 C19 cases and maybe 45 of them will have over 10,000. The point is: this this is long not over with. And here I am referring only to the year 2020. There will also be 2021 to consider.

    New daily cases:

    3 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-029: CA, TX, IL. The day before, it was 6 states. At +2,701 cases, CA is picking up speed, and considering how massive the state is, that could be bad news for the future.

    33 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 36 + DC.

    2 state reported no new cases: KY and ID.


    New daily deaths:

    I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

    0 states reported more than 100 daily deaths, a welcome reprieve from the last 2.5 months of heavy daily death tolls!

    35 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 43.

    The fact that the death toll has been reduced on a Sunday is, of course, a good sign, but it has also been statistically so for weeks now.

    Total deaths:
    40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 89 and 82 total deaths respectively, ME and ID will soon cross over that marker.

    Of those 40, 19 states in the Union now have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths. At 937 and 906 total deaths respectively, both AZ and AZ will soon cross over that gruesome marker.



    FACIT: on 2020-05-031, we ended the day with 106,195 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 106,500-110,500:

    2020-05-031 EOD USA 004 USA cities by population 106,000 to 110,000.png

    As of 2020-05-031, this means that we lost the equivalent of ALL of Broken Arrow, never to get it back again. Think about that.

    NEW EXTRAPOLATION (will start 2020-06-001):
    Yesterday, I wrote:

    Aaaand we landed at 106,195 total US deaths.

    OK, what happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day, let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

    This is simple math: from June 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020, there are 214 days (7 months at 30 days plus four months with one extra day, the 31st: July, August, October, December). 214 * 700 = 149,800 + 106,195 = 255,995 US-American deaths (effectively, 256,000) by the end of 2020 if the average daily deaths are just one-half of what I extrapolated from April 28-May 31, 2020. Instead of checking this extrapolation every day, I will make a quick excel table and check in about this extrapolation once per month, on the first day of each month.

    Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, starting June 1, 2020, to happen.


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2020
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  20. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the block quote, gets the word out to more lurkers.

    I wonder why fear-grifters continue to discount the purposefully fraudulent CDC cause of death "guidelines" that have allowed corrupt, bankrupt Democrat cities in the U.S. to grossly inflate their COVID deaths, federal $$ and bolster their emergent claims for massive federal bailouts?

    I wonder why fear-grifters continue to fabricate that those fraudulent numbers, overwhelmingly from the 10 Democrat, public union run "Soprano" States, are anywhere remotely close to accurate, more likely 2-3x overcounted?

    I wonder why fear-grifters continue to ignore the results in the other 40 states, especially the bottom 25-30 states almost WHOLLY UNAFFECTED by COVID1984... when the grifters aren't cherry-picking them over and over, day after day... trying to turn a turd into a tulip towards fear mongering?

    I wonder why fear-grifters persist in avoiding the irrefutable fact and not opinion that for all but a tiny geographic fraction of the U.S., somehow miraculously contained ONLY in CORRUPT DEMOCRAT SOPRANO CRIME FAMILY CITIES, the instance of COVID19 is not statistically significant in relation to historical flu and other flu-like illness?

    I wonder why fear-grifters persist in cherry-picking this or that localized data, free-floating factoids, junk science, rank speculation, always omitting necessary context, never using comprehensive data or obfuscating it as OP and others do via biased partisan formatting and other childish chicanery?

    I wonder why fear-grifters constantly PRESUME some NONEXISTENT scientific evidence and credibility for draconian mitigation methods like lockdowns, business closure, social distancing and masks, especially in light that we now have NUMEROUS WORLDWIDE comprehensive comparisons in which those things do little if anything in the way of mitigation, certainly in no comparison to their IMMENSE costs and RIGHTS INFRINGEMENT?

    Most of all, I wonder why fear-grifters are continuing to LARP this COVID1984 FARCE of a MORAL PANIC day after day after it is IRREFUTABLY OVER. FINITO. Yet like in so many matters and disputes they end up LOSING, LOSING SOME MORE, and then LOSING YET AGAIN, they have -0- perspective, -0- self-awareness, and keep YAMMERING over and over ad infinitum way past the close... So do keep doing that! It's amazing, can keep time by it (that and the projections, fallacies and magical thinking). Keep going!
     
  21. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Most people don't agree with you, or haven't you figured that out yet?
     
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  22. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    We don't have 'em. I think because we use heating/cooling only intermittently here, so don't need expensive (to purchase and install) ducted type systems.
     
  23. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    That is some heavy duty denial you have going there, S.
     
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  24. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Too true. Bad, hard times.
     
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  25. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    It's very sad to see how poorly Americans are backed by their Govt. Especially in a nation as rich as America, where opportunity has abounded and the Govt is/was the most powerful on the planet. It's also sad to see so many Americans fail to back themselves - given such inept governance - thereby leaving themselves vulnerable to collapse in troubled times.

    America seems to be a nation which doesn't stand for the kind of governance which backs its people, because that kind of governance necessarily involves compromises Americans seem unwilling to make. The problem is that if freedoms and rights trump everything, that means personal independence. Personal independence means personal responsibility. We can't have it both ways.
     
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