Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

No matter what governments do or don't do, it's up to the people to either wreck ourselves or smooth the curve. Do we have faith in our fellow humans to do the right thing?

This WaPo article with simulated variations on controlling the pace of the spread is interesting (if oversimplified). It indicates that voluntary social distancing is more effective than forced quarantines of an area.

(I noticed that the animated simulations embedded in the article don't run on Internet Explorer, but do work on FireFox - so they probably run on Google and other more updated browsers.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

The provincial authorities in North-Rhein Westfalia have just put out an important notice:

https://www.land.nrw/de/pressemitte...e-massnahmen-zur-eindaemmung-der-corona-virus

Until April 19th, 2020, literally everything (except banks, supermarkets and doctors offices and the like) will be closed: Fitness-centers, Sportsclubs, theaters, choirs, movie theaters, bars, discos, whorehouses...

Restaurants and Hotels are only allowed to be open under special conditions.

So, what just happened in Illinois (under a Democratic Governor) and in Ohio (under a Republican Governor) is also happening here where I live.

 

This makes no sense. There is no real curve projection yet, it's too early to tell, but if you really want to try that one, in just 17 days, the USA has gone from a couple of cases to (at current) 3,621. That extrapolates out as a far steeper curve than either Iran or Italy. And since the USA is woefully behind in testing, it may get considerably worse.

 

BINGO. SPOT ON.

Getting the curve to flatten with all they we have will keep the hospitals from being flooded, thus avoiding triage. But as to voluntary or enforced, I couldn't care. Main thing is that it happens. This is not the time for Libertarians to be screaming that they have the right to do whatever the **** they want to do. Life is more important than that, I think.

 

Why didn't any of the governments just issue everyone a cardboard circle and suspenders?

We'd be done by now.

 

I laughed so hard when I saw that dude.

 

Italy letting its elderly die.
Score one for national healthcare

https://www.yahoo.com/news/italians-over-80-left-die-151225888.html

 

Hey! I resemble that remark!

Fortunately I am an ex-latchkey kid GenX'er Libertarian who's sort of a homebody anyway. I'm skipping Friday happy hour for a few weeks to do my part. Other than that, I drive to work and home everyday (aside from buying necessary food and water, and I'm stocked for at least two weeks).

 

Now THAT's a small-government Libertarian solution! Keep it simple!

 

The curves are exponential
Here's your curve flattening.
Still feel like you're accomplishing something that can be measurably significant?

 

Yes. Because time plays a more important role in the flattened curve.

 

LOL

 

Quantify it

 

I also have my curiosity as to whether or not they are able to differentiate effectively between the flu and this coronavirus. If they're not, we could be suffering from a case of conflation, where flu cases are being conflated with the coronavirus.(and 'coronaviruses' could be conflated with actual flu cases.)

 

People in China were testing negative for known flu viruses, but still had similar respiratory symptoms. This current virus is a relative of the SARS virus. The testing involves a piece of the specific virus's RNA.

After two viruses which have jumped from bats to other mammals to humans since 2003, China could do us all a favor and shut down those nasty wet markets selling bats and wild animals for human consumption. Who knows how bad SARS #3 will be if they don't tighten up food regulations.

 

END RENT-SEEKING “CERTIFICATE OF NEED” REQUIREMENTS: America Doesn’t Have Enough Hospital Beds To Fight the Coronavirus. Protectionist Health Care Regulations Are One Reason Why.

Trump and the Govs are slicing through this red tape with Executive orders.

In many places, that shortage of beds is the result of state-level regulations—known as "certificate of need" laws, or well-named CON laws—that artificially limit the supply of medical equipment. Politically powerful hospital chains limit regional competition and inflate health care costs, by creating shortages of medical equipment that could prove disastrous during a pandemic.

Certificate of need laws are on the books in 35 inept states. They mean hospitals must get a state agency's permission before offering new services or installing a new medical technology. Depending on the state, everything from the number of hospital beds to the installation of a new MRI machine could be subject to CON review.

"There have been artificially imposed restrictions on the number of beds, ventilators, and facilities in general that can exist. Some states might find themselves having a real problem," says Jeffrey Singer, a medical doctor and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.
​

In 28 states, hospitals must get state regulators' permission before adding beds - Data. Bed space in nursing homes and long-term care facilities are subject to CON regulations in 34 states. CON laws limit long-term acute care services—the sort of thing that many coronavirus victims may need as they recover—in 30 states. Specific medical equipment, such as ventilators, could be subject to CON laws covering the purchases of new devices.

Those laws are one reason why America has fewer hospital beds than most other developed countries.

 

Great site. 205% increase in cases in 17 days.
231% increase in deaths.
232% increase in the number of recovered.

Solid information is at a premium today.

We’re Paying The Price For The Death Of Journalism.

That journalism is dead has been a punchline for so long that we’ve forgotten how that fact has real world consequences. We’re now paying the price for the failure of that profession to hold itself to any semblance of standards.

Eight years of sycophantic, throne sniffing coverage under President Barack Obama gave way to four years of nitpicking, hostility, and conspiracy theories. There are no standards anymore; if someone on TV hates President Trump, there is no outrageous, medically dubious statement they can make on CNN or MSNBC that will be challenged and if they love him. The opposite is true on those networks if you replace “President Trump” with any Democrat.

Americans are unfooled and go on line and dig up their own trustworthy news.

 

deleted

 

I recall reading an article a week or two ago that Seattle was one of several cities and/or states which has a severe shortage of beds. That made me check the status in Texas and I think we're fine here.

I wondered about the difference and figured it had to be local or state regulations.

 

Could you orient that graph against a timescale? Or at least label the X and Y axis.

 

In Cali the Gov is taking over vacant hospitals and planning to have them operational in no time flat, which is very "uncali" but, hard times always see folks unexpectedly rising to the occasion.

And the Fake News Folks are always good for comedy relief.

OUT: LISTEN TO THE EXPERTS.

IN: CNN’s Brian Stelter slams surgeon general for criticizing reporters covering coronavirus.

Yeah, who would criticize a bunch of technically ignorant yahoos who sound like whiny middle-schoolers?

Fake News has become 24-7 Laurel and Hardy with the 3 stooges handling intermissions.

​

 

Y=(RO)^X

Base 3 is an RO of 3.
If the first diagnosis was jan 19, one can assume 3 more were already infected by this individual on presentation. This was 45 days ago.
So if you can become symptomatic and pass virus in 3 days, that's 15 more cycles of exponential spread. Assuming that was the only individual infected at that time, which is unlikely,
That is 3^16 individuals infected from a single case, or 43,046,721 total individuals.

If RO were 2 it would have only taken take 30 more days to reach 67,108,864 total individuals.

If you were to cut RO from 3 to 2 today, in 21 days there would be 128 times more infections than today, or 5,509,980,288 infections.

 

Funny stuff ... ´

 

Anything to take a cheap shot at national healthcare, eh?

You might want to check out S Korea, which also has national health care and seems to be leading the world in responding to the virus.

 

Care to reply to what Italy is doing?